Donald Trump

Monday on the London Stock Exchange: An Anxious Start to the Week

The first trading day of the week began with a noticeable decline in the British market. The FTSE 100 had fallen by 0.61% by the middle of the trading session, reflecting a broader deterioration in sentiment across European markets. Investors are fleeing risk, and they have good reasons to do so.

The conflict in the Middle East has entered a new and more dangerous phase. For the ninth consecutive night, the US military has carried out strikes against Iranian targets. These are no longer isolated operations but a systematic effort to suppress Iran’s military capabilities. Tehran’s response is becoming increasingly aggressive and is spreading to neighbouring countries in the Persian Gulf.

Germany’s DAX lost 0.16%, while France’s CAC 40 declined by 0.05%. However, the British market proved to be the most vulnerable. The reason is the United Kingdom’s dependence on imported energy and the sensitivity of its economy to rising oil prices. As the market is currently demonstrating, oil prices are climbing rapidly.

The Pound Sterling: A Small Island of Stability

Against the backdrop of a falling stock market, the pound sterling has remained relatively resilient. The British currency rose by 0.08% to $1.3466. This modest but symbolic appreciation suggests that investors still have confidence in the British economy despite the external shocks.

The focus is now on the UK political landscape. Andy Burnham is expected to formally take office as prime minister on Monday, and his promise to give households “breathing space” from the rising cost of living has resonated with voters. However, the extent to which this promise can be implemented in practice remains an open question.

Burnham’s position on North Sea oil production is attracting particular attention. US President Donald Trump has already welcomed plans...

Introduction: The Wednesday When Geopolitics Turned Markets Around

Wednesday. Johannesburg, the JSE stock exchange. Traders who had hoped for a calm day in the morning saw their screens turn red. The South African rand, the country’s main currency, fell to its lowest level in a week. 16.3850 per dollar — a loss of about 0.5% compared with the previous close. This is not a collapse, but it is a serious decline that reflects global fear.

What happened? U.S. President Donald Trump announced the breakdown of a temporary peace agreement with Iran. And that changed everything. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards launched strikes on U.S. military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait. The U.S. response was immediate. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East erupted with renewed force.

For markets, this means the return of fear. Investors who had only just begun to believe in stabilization are once again fleeing into safe-haven assets. Emerging market currencies, including the rand, are coming under pressure. The dollar, by contrast, remains stable, while oil prices jump by more than 5%, reaching a two-week high.

The rand, as a typical emerging market currency, is sensitive to global risks. When geopolitical tensions rise, investors pull capital out of developing countries and move it into safer assets. This leads to currency weakness.

What comes next? Analysts expect the rand’s short-term dynamics to remain closely tied to developments in the Middle East, as well as to the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes scheduled for the same day. If the conflict escalates, the rand may fall even further. If the situation calms down, it may recover.

Let’s break down what is really happening, why Iran has once again become the main topic for markets, and how this affects the South African currency.

Breakdown of the Peace Agreement: What Happened

Trump Breaks...

Monday: A Day of Major Relief

On Monday morning, when Asian traders returned to their desks after the weekend, they saw what many had been waiting for since the start of the year. Oil prices collapsed. Not a minor correction, not a half-percent decline—but a genuine plunge.

Brent crude futures fell 4.1% to $83.79 per barrel, while WTI dropped 4.6% to $80.95. Both benchmark grades hit their lowest levels since March 10. These are the lowest oil prices seen in three months.

The reason? Peace. Real, long-awaited, almost unbelievable peace between the United States and Iran.

On Sunday, President Donald Trump and Iranian officials issued a joint statement announcing a framework agreement to end hostilities and restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

This is not merely another ceasefire—several of which have been reached and broken over recent months. It is a framework agreement designed as the foundation for a long-term peace settlement. The deal includes a ceasefire, the lifting of the U.S. blockade on Iran, restrictions on nuclear activities, and—most importantly for the oil market—the normalization of Iranian oil exports and the unrestricted passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump, characteristically enthusiastic, posted on social media:

“Ships of peace, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”

And flow it did. Or rather, the price of oil fell sharply.

But let's take a closer look at what is really driving this decline, how sustainable it may be, and what comes next.

The Strait of Hormuz Reopens: The Biggest Risk Has Been Removed

For oil markets, the Strait of Hormuz is far more than a narrow waterway between Oman and Iran. It is the Achilles’ heel of the global economy.

Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and fuel consumption passes through the strait—between 17 and 20 million barrels every...

The Dream of Devaluation: How Traders Profited from a Weak Dollar

There was a wonderful moment, about a year ago, when it seemed the U.S. dollar was doomed. Not in a catastrophic sense—not like the Zimbabwean dollar or the Argentine peso. Rather, in a calm, predictable, almost comfortable way: the dollar would gradually lose value. Inflation would steadily erode its purchasing power, like a mouse nibbling away at a piece of cheese. The Federal Reserve, which newly elected President Donald Trump appeared determined to pressure, would keep interest rates low to please the White House. And investors, tired of American financial dominance, would shift their billions into euros, yuan, gold—anything but greenbacks.

The strategy had a sophisticated name: the “debasement trade.” It sounded almost scientific. In reality, it was a simple bet: the dollar would weaken because America no longer wanted a strong dollar. A weaker dollar helps exporters. Trump had long complained about the currency’s strength. Surely he would get his way. Surely the Fed would bend.

The traders who made that bet a year ago earned billions. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell to its lowest level in eight years. The euro surged to 1.20. The pound climbed to 1.35. American travelers were delighted—their dollars bought more abroad than they had in years. U.S. importers were pleased as well. Exporters complained, but few were listening.

Then something went wrong.

Inflation, which many had written off, came roaring back—not as a visitor, but as the owner of the house. Oil prices soared amid conflict in the Middle East. The U.S. economy, instead of slowing, kept growing: 172,000 jobs were added in May, while unemployment stood at 4.3%. And the Federal Reserve, which Trump had hoped to tame, showed its teeth.

Markets now price in more than a 70% probability...

A Morning That Began with Hope

Friday’s Asian oil markets opened with cautious but steady gains. Futures for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the primary benchmark for the U.S. market and beyond, rose 0.17% to $93.20 per barrel. It is hardly a spectacular rally—just seventeen hundredths of a percent, more of a tremor than a surge. But after several days of volatile price swings, traders are willing to welcome any green number on their screens.

The European benchmark, Brent crude, appeared somewhat stronger. The August Brent contract gained 0.42%, climbing to $95.43 per barrel. The price spread between Brent and WTI widened to $2.23 per barrel in Brent’s favor. A week ago, the spread was narrower, below $2. The widening gap suggests that geopolitical risks concentrated around key Brent supply routes continue to weigh more heavily on Brent than on WTI, which is produced in the relatively secure environment of Texas.

The U.S. dollar, which has pressured commodity markets in recent days, weakened slightly on Friday morning. The U.S. Dollar Index futures slipped 0.01% to 99.39. The decline is tiny and almost imperceptible, but even such a modest move gives oil prices some breathing room.

The technical picture remains tense. WTI support stands at $88.45, a level sellers failed to break in recent sessions. Resistance is located at $97.00. With WTI trading at $93.20, prices sit roughly in the middle of that range, leaving traders with room for maneuver.

The key question is what will trigger the next move. Geopolitics? U.S. inventory data? Or perhaps long-awaited news regarding negotiations between Iran and the United States? As usual, Asian traders were the first to react and have already begun positioning themselves ahead of developments.

Middle East: The Calm Before the Storm

The geopolitical backdrop remains the...

Friday’s Asian trading session brought a brief respite to the oil market. July WTI futures fell by 1.5%, dropping to $87.56 per barrel. Brent followed its U.S. counterpart lower, losing just over 1% and settling at $91.73 per barrel. At first glance, this looks like a routine correction after the sharp rally triggered by the latest strikes on Iran. But a closer look at the numbers suggests otherwise: this is not merely a pullback—it is a market holding its breath before the next move. Too much explosive risk has accumulated beneath the surface, too many unresolved questions remain, and too much depends on what unfolds over the weekend.

Down 1.5%: Profit-Taking or a Trend Reversal?

Friday’s decline in WTI fits a classic pattern. After Thursday’s surge of more than 3%, fueled by reports of strikes on Bandar Abbas and a retaliatory attack by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), traders chose to lock in profits ahead of the weekend. Few are willing to hold long positions through Saturday and Sunday when anything could happen—from fresh military strikes to an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough. This fear of the “geopolitical weekend” is a familiar feature of every major Middle Eastern crisis.

Support at $87.27 remains intact. Prices bounced from that level, preventing bears from gaining momentum. This suggests that the underlying fundamentals have not changed: the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively disrupted, supply chains are impaired, and the global oil market remains undersupplied. A decline of 1.5% is not a trend reversal—it is simply a pause after a short sprint.

Resistance at $99.43 looms overhead, separating the current range from the triple-digit prices seen during the hottest phase of the conflict. If tensions continue to escalate, that level could be tested as early as next week. If, against all expectations, there...

Seventy-seven thousand one hundred twenty-seven dollars. On Wednesday evening, Bitcoin hovered at that mark, gaining a symbolic four-tenths of a percent for the session. A move that, in normal times, wouldn’t even make the news feed now tells an entire story. A story about how the world’s leading cryptocurrency is trying to find solid ground after being rejected from the coveted eighty-two-thousand-dollar level and thrown back into the abyss of uncertainty. And that abyss is lined not with technical failures or regulatory fears, but with old-fashioned macroeconomic forces — Treasury yields, oil prices, and geopolitical swings orchestrated personally by Donald Trump.

The Iranian Pendulum: From Bombs to Negotiations in Sixty Minutes

Trumpian diplomacy is always theater, and the current Iranian drama is no exception. On Tuesday, the U.S. president made a statement that left traders breathless. He admitted he was “an hour away” from authorizing another military strike against Iran. One hour. Sixty minutes separated the world from another escalation in the Persian Gulf, another spike in oil prices, another wave of inflation, and, as a consequence, another collapse in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. But the strike was postponed. Trump decided to give diplomacy one more chance.

The admission was a masterful rhetorical maneuver. At the same time, Trump portrayed himself as both a decisive leader ready to press the button and a prudent peacemaker who prefers negotiations over war. For markets, this creates an explosive mixture of hope and fear. Hope that the conflict may genuinely be moving toward resolution. Fear that the entire structure could collapse at any moment. Vice President J.D. Vance added fuel to the fire by declaring that the United States would remain “ready for combat” if negotiations fail. A double signal: we believe in peace, but our hand remains on the trigger.

For Bitcoin,...

Gold is climbing again. During Thursday’s Asian trading session, prices turned green, extending a rally that seemed to begin against all logic. Spot gold rose to $4,560 per ounce, while futures reached $4,562. A gain of four-tenths of a percent for the session marked a confident recovery after recent losses. But the real mystery behind this move lies not in the numbers — it’s in what caused it. Gold, which for weeks had been suffocating under the pressure of rising rates and a strong dollar, suddenly found support where few expected it: in hopes for peace with Iran. And that paradox reflects the complex, multilayered logic of a market that no longer reacts to headlines in a straightforward way.

Peace as a Catalyst: An Unexpected Twist

At first glance, everything should have played out differently. Gold is the classic safe-haven asset. It rises when the world descends into chaos — when guns fire and diplomats throw up their hands. A war with Iran, a blocked Strait of Hormuz, oil prices soaring into the stratosphere — all of that should have sent gold flying higher. Instead, the yellow metal hovered near recent lows, unable to break resistance. And now, just as Trump speaks of the conflict entering its “final stage” and negotiations progressing successfully, gold suddenly comes alive. How can that be explained?

The answer lies in the transmission mechanism — the invisible conduit linking geopolitics to monetary policy. The conflict with Iran created an inflationary shock. Disruptions to oil supplies drove energy prices sharply higher, which in turn fueled inflation worldwide. Central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, responded with more hawkish rhetoric and threats of higher rates. High interest rates are gold’s deadliest enemy because they increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. That mechanism has been choking...

Monday began with a sharp surge in oil prices. As soon as Asian markets opened, July futures for North Sea Brent crude jumped 1.3%, reaching $110.71 per barrel. For early morning trading, when liquidity is still relatively thin, this is a highly significant move. It indicates that a buildup of news over the weekend was bound to spill over into prices.

Traders arriving at their desks in Tokyo, Singapore, and Shanghai were greeted by a troubling picture on their terminals: oil was climbing again, the geopolitical fire in the Middle East showed no signs of cooling, and diplomatic efforts had yet to produce meaningful results. While they were sipping their morning coffee, algorithmic trading systems were already pricing in a new phase of escalation.

Drone Over Barakah: An Attack That Changes the Rules

The key trigger behind the morning spike was an event that at first glance might have seemed like a local incident, but in reality carries far-reaching implications. On Sunday, drones struck a facility near the Barakah nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates. The fire that broke out after the attack was contained, but the aftermath left a far deeper impact than the material damage itself.

Barakah is not just a power plant. It is the first and only operational nuclear power station in the Arab world, a symbol of the UAE’s technological ambitions, and a site under close scrutiny from international nuclear safety regulators. A drone strike near such a facility represents an entirely new level of escalation. This is no longer about tankers in the Persian Gulf or oil infrastructure. It is about the potential for a nuclear catastrophe in a densely populated region, and the market reacted accordingly — as a signal that the conflict has entered a far more dangerous phase.

According...