Platinum

Introduction: Monday’s Sell-Off

Monday morning brought an unpleasant surprise for gold investors. Precious metal prices continued to decline, and the drop was substantial. XAU/USD fell by 1.5% to $4,057 per ounce, while gold futures lost 1.17%, slipping to $4,065. Silver and platinum suffered even heavier losses: silver plunged by nearly 3%, while platinum fell by 1.6%.

What happened? Why is gold, traditionally considered a safe-haven asset, falling at a time when geopolitical tensions are reaching their peak? As is often the case, the answer lies in a complex combination of factors, with rising oil prices and inflation expectations outweighing demand for safety.

The resumption of hostilities between the United States and Iran, the threat of the Strait of Hormuz being closed, and the surge in oil prices above $78 per barrel have created a perfect storm for the gold market. Investors are not so much afraid of the war itself as they are of its consequences: accelerating inflation and, as a result, tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. For gold, which generates no income, higher interest rates can be a fatal blow.

Geopolitical Shock: Iran, the United States, and the Strait of Hormuz

Escalation of the Conflict: From Words to Action

The weekend marked the point at which diplomatic efforts finally reached a dead end. The United States launched another round of strikes against Iranian targets following an attack on a Cyprus-flagged cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran responded swiftly by announcing the closure of the key shipping route until further notice.

Although US officials disputed the announcement and emphasized that the waterway remained open under the protection of the US armed forces, markets had already begun pricing in the worst-case scenario. Shipping activity in the region declined sharply, and even if the strait technically remains open,...

Introduction: The Safe-Haven Asset Paradox

In the world of finance, there are axioms that seem unshakable. One of them says that during periods of geopolitical instability, investors flee to gold. It is the ultimate refuge, a safe harbor where money waits out the storm. But the current week has shattered this neat narrative. Prices for the yellow metal barely changed on Friday, yet over the course of five trading sessions they are down by roughly one and a half percent. And this is despite the fact that the conflict between the United States and Iran has entered a new phase, while oil prices have surged to levels that only recently seemed almost unimaginable.

So what is happening? Why has gold, the traditional beneficiary of crises, suddenly come under pressure precisely when its protective qualities should have been fully on display? The answer, as is often the case, lies in a complex combination of factors, where geopolitics collides with monetary policy and short-term fears give way to long-term calculations. Let’s break it down.

The Iran Factor: War as an Inflation Catalyst

Escalation of the Conflict and the Market Reaction

This week began with what many analysts called a “worst-case scenario.” U.S. President Donald Trump announced the end of the ceasefire with Iran and ordered an intensification of strikes against the country. Tehran responded in kind, and the Middle East once again found itself on the brink of full-scale war.

For financial markets, this became a moment of truth. Oil prices reacted immediately with a sharp jump. And this is logical: the Middle East remains a key supplier of energy resources, and any military action in the region directly threatens the stability of supply.

But why did gold not follow oil higher? After all, classic logic suggests: war → uncertainty → rising...

Introduction: The Thursday When Gold Lost Its Shine

Thursday, Asian trading session. Traders in Shanghai, Singapore, and Tokyo open their terminals and see the yellow metal continuing to lose ground. The spot price of gold falls by 0.2% to $4,070.81 per ounce. Futures decline by 0.1% to $4,079.47. This marks the third consecutive decline for the precious metal, which is usually considered a “safe haven” during periods of uncertainty.

What is happening? The gold paradox. The resumption of hostilities between the United States and Iran should have supported gold prices, since geopolitical uncertainty traditionally pushes investors toward defensive assets. But instead, gold is falling.

The reason is a strengthening dollar. Renewed military activity between the U.S. and Iran triggered a sharp rise in oil prices, increasing concerns about persistent inflation driven by energy costs. And high inflation means high interest rates, which support the dollar and put pressure on gold.

The minutes of the Fed’s June meeting, published on Wednesday, turned out to be less “dovish” than markets had feared. Members of the regulator were largely divided over the need to raise rates this year. However, the minutes recorded growing concern among central bank officials about the persistence of inflation.

The dollar index is holding near the 13-month highs reached in June. The dollar benefited from fears of rising inflation. When the dollar rises, gold becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing demand and putting pressure on prices.

Other precious metals also mostly declined on Thursday. The spot price of silver fell by 0.5% to $58.0060 per ounce. Platinum, by contrast, rose by 0.5% to $1,594.0 per ounce.

ANZ analysts noted that any recovery in energy prices would strengthen expectations that the Fed may keep interest rates elevated for longer in order to fight stubbornly high inflation.

Let’s...

Wednesday — a day when the yellow metal refuses to give up

Wednesday in the gold market began with the continuation of the rally — the fifth consecutive session. The spot price rose by 0.3% to $4,342.56 per ounce. Futures gained 0.3% to $4,368.40. It may seem minor, but this is the fifth straight day of gains. After four weeks of continuous decline, when gold was balancing near the $4,000 level, this looks like a real comeback.

What is driving gold higher? Two things. First — the peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Second — expectations around the Federal Reserve meeting.

Peace with Iran continues to influence markets. Oil has fallen, inflation expectations have eased, and the dollar has weakened. A weaker dollar is a classic driver of gold growth. Investors who were panic-selling gold a week ago are now returning, buying the metal as a hedge against uncertainty.

But the main factor is the Fed. Today’s Federal Reserve meeting, led by new Chairman Kevin Warsh, is a major test. It is his first serious challenge in the role. The future of the dollar — and therefore gold — depends on his words.

Investors are waiting for “dovish” signals. They hope Warsh will confirm the Fed’s willingness to ease policy if inflation continues to decline. If that happens, the dollar will fall and gold will surge.

But there is also risk. If Warsh turns out “hawkish,” the dollar could strengthen and gold may reverse downward.

For now — five days of gains. And that is already a trend.

Let’s break down what is behind this rally, what to expect from the Fed, and how long gold’s rise can continue.

Iran peace: why it is good for gold

On Monday, we wrote that peace with Iran triggered a sharp...

Tuesday: A Breather After the Rally

On Monday, gold put on quite a show. It surged more than 2% after news broke of a preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran. The metal, which had been under pressure for weeks, finally caught a breath. Investors who had been selling in panic just a week earlier suddenly rushed back into the market. The reasons were clear: cheaper oil, a more dovish Federal Reserve, and a weaker U.S. dollar. The same chain of factors that had weighed on gold during the conflict was now working in its favor.

But on Tuesday, gold calmed down. Spot prices edged up just 0.1% to $4,313.35 per ounce, while futures slipped 0.4% to $4,333.90. There was no euphoria—just cautious, almost hesitant movement.

Why? Because the market realized that peace has not yet been officially secured. The formal signing ceremony in Switzerland is scheduled for Friday. Between now and then, anything can happen. Iranian hardliners, Israeli hawks, or American lawmakers could still attempt to derail the deal. If that happens, hopes for lower oil prices and a more accommodative Fed could quickly evaporate—and gold could fall along with them.

Adding to the uncertainty is a packed week for central banks. Today, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates to their highest level in 31 years. Tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will meet, and its guidance will shape the future direction of the dollar. The Bank of England is also expected to leave rates unchanged.

Traders are reluctant to take large positions ahead of so many potentially market-moving events. They are waiting. And gold is waiting with them.

Iran Peace Deal: Temporary Boost or Sustainable Trend?

Gold jumped 2% on Monday because markets interpreted the peace news as a significant step toward easing inflation pressures. Oil...

The fourth day of pain: not even a helicopter incident could save the yellow metal

Wednesday morning. You open the gold chart and can hardly believe what you see. Spot gold is trading at $4,180 per ounce, down 1.9% overnight. Four consecutive trading sessions in the red. Four. The last time that happened was last year, when the Federal Reserve was just beginning its aggressive rate-hiking cycle.

Gold has broken below the psychological $4,200 level and never looked back. It keeps falling, and nobody knows where the bottom is. U.S. gold futures are at $4,204.75, also down 1.9%, their lowest level since March 23. Three months ago, the world looked very different: the Middle East ceasefire was still holding, U.S. inflation was easing, and the Fed was signaling rate cuts. Those promises have now all but disappeared.

What Happened?

The same story that has plagued gold for weeks continues. The dollar is strong. Interest rates remain high. Inflation refuses to retreat. And the Middle East—which would normally support gold prices—has instead become another source of pressure.

Now a new and dangerous twist has emerged. On Tuesday, Washington reportedly launched fresh strikes against Iranian targets following the downing of a U.S. military helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz.

Think about what that means. The United States and Iran are no longer exchanging blows through intermediaries or proxy forces in Lebanon or Yemen. These are direct strikes. A helicopter has been shot down. Airstrikes are underway. The Strait of Hormuz—the artery through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil flows—is increasingly becoming a conflict zone.

And do you know how gold is reacting?

It’s falling.

Not rising—falling.

Because markets are looking three steps ahead. Strikes on Iran lead to higher oil prices (which rose another 1% on Wednesday),...

The Party Is Over: The Yellow Metal Is No Longer a Safe Haven

Just a couple of weeks ago, it seemed that gold was on the verge of breaking through its all-time highs and shooting to the moon. Investors were snapping up bullion like crazy, jewelry stores in Dubai and Singapore couldn't restock their displays fast enough, and millionaire YouTubers were passionately proclaiming that "the dollar is about to collapse, and the only safe haven left is gold."

And what happened in the end?

On Monday morning, gold fell to its lowest level in the past eleven weeks.

The spot price—the price at which the metal can be bought right now for immediate delivery—dropped to $4,312 per ounce, down 0.4% during a few hours of Asian trading. And that's after Friday's selloff, when gold lost more than 3% in a single day. This is no longer just a correction—it is beginning to look like a full-scale retreat.

U.S. gold futures—the contracts traded by professional speculators and hedge funds—fell to $4,337 per ounce, down another 0.7%. Doesn't sound catastrophic? Perhaps. But when you look at the monthly chart, it becomes unsettling. As recently as mid-May, gold was trading around $4,600, and everyone was predicting a rapid move to $5,000. Now it's at $4,312. And according to whispers among traders, this may only be the beginning.

The Fed Strikes Again: Jobs Data Changed Everything

So what happened?

Why are investors who were practically kissing gold bars yesterday suddenly turning their backs on them today?

The answer is simple and painfully predictable: the U.S. economy once again proved the pessimists wrong.

On Friday, the May labor market report was released. Economists, as usual, built forecasts, ran spreadsheets, and drew elegant charts. Most expected the economy to create around 120,000–130,000 new jobs....

When War Stops Being Precious

Friday began on a disappointing note for precious metals markets in Asia. Gold, which has already been struggling this week, moved lower once again. Spot gold fell 0.8% to $4,440.84 per ounce, while futures declined by the same margin to $4,467. And this is happening even as the Middle East remains engulfed in conflict.

At first glance, war, missile strikes, military operations, and stalled negotiations should provide the perfect environment for gold to rally. Investors are traditionally expected to flock to the yellow metal as a safe haven. That is how it has always worked. That is what textbooks teach. That is what market logic suggests. But not today—and not this week.

The paradox has a simple explanation. The conflict between the United States and Iran, which has been ongoing for several months, has ceased to be a source of uncertainty. Instead, it has become a source of inflation. And inflation means higher interest rates. Higher interest rates, in turn, are a major headwind for gold.

Gold is down approximately 2.2% for the week, marking its worst performance since early May. The reason is not the absence of geopolitical risks, but rather their abundance. The market is no longer afraid of war itself. It is afraid of what war does to oil prices and, through oil, to inflation and interest rates.

Let’s examine how a conflict in the Middle East has become a bearish factor for gold—and what may lie ahead for the yellow metal following the release of key U.S. employment data.

Middle East: Hope Is Gone, Long Live Inflation

Developments in the Middle East have been rapid and, for those hoping for peace, discouraging. Hopes for a U.S.–Iran agreement, which still seemed realistic earlier in the week, had all but vanished by Friday.

...

The Safe-Haven Paradox: When War Fails to Support Gold

In finance, there are a few principles that rarely get questioned. One of them is simple: geopolitical tensions push gold prices higher. Wars, conflicts, and threats typically drive investors away from fragile paper currencies and toward the timeless, yellow, dependable metal. Gold is a safe haven. And safe havens are supposed to rise in value when bullets start flying.

Wednesday's Asian trading session politely—but firmly—challenged that assumption.

Because the Middle East was on fire. Not figuratively, but literally. Missiles were flying. Troops were moving. Negotiations were starting and stalling in equal measure. Yet against this backdrop, gold actually fell. Only slightly—about half a percent—but it fell nonetheless. Spot gold slipped to around $4,462 per ounce, while futures mirrored the move.

Was this a market mistake? A temporary lapse of judgment among traders? Or has the old safe-haven rule stopped working in today's increasingly chaotic world?

Neither.

The reality is that the world has become more complicated. A single conflict can now push gold both higher and lower at the same time. Every coin has two sides—and in the Middle East, it often has ten.

What's Happening in the Middle East?

To understand gold's behavior, we first need to understand the situation in a region that gave humanity writing but has yet to discover lasting peace.

On Wednesday, the picture was far from calm.

Israel, which in recent months has operated under the principle that "the best defense is a strong offense," continued military operations in southern Lebanon. This is an area where Hezbollah traditionally maintains significant influence—a place Israeli forces often describe as a hornet's nest, where every move provokes a response. These were not isolated retaliatory strikes but a systematic campaign aimed at degrading hostile infrastructure.

Meanwhile, Iran—widely regarded as...

Friday’s gold market was defined by painful uncertainty. Spot gold held steady at $4,495.90 per ounce, virtually unchanged, while futures edged slightly lower to $4,526. Beneath this calm surface lies a market being pulled in opposite directions. On one side is hope for peace, which pushed prices higher on Thursday. On the other is persistent inflation, preventing gold from gaining real momentum. Caught between these forces, the yellow metal remains stuck, unable to choose a clear direction.

Ceasefire on the Table: What Changed Overnight

The main development driving markets on Thursday and continuing to influence sentiment on Friday is reports that the United States and Iran are close to extending a ceasefire agreement. According to sources, the preliminary arrangement includes a 60-day truce and, critically, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic.

This is precisely the breakthrough markets have been waiting for over the past several months. Since the conflict began, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been a major source of oil market disruption, inflationary pressure, and monetary policy concerns. Now, with renewed hopes that the waterway could reopen, markets reacted immediately.

Gold initially fell to a two-month low on Thursday as investors feared that de-escalation would reduce demand for safe-haven assets. However, as the implications of the news became clearer, the metal reversed course and finished the day up 0.8%. This turnaround is key to understanding how the market currently operates.

Investors realized that a ceasefire would mean not only a reduction in geopolitical risk premiums but also lower oil prices. Lower oil prices would ease inflationary pressures. Lower inflation would reduce the need for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. And a pause in rate hikes is exactly what gold needs.

However, the agreement is not yet final....