ETF

Friday, 12 June 2026  ·  Capital Street FX Research Desk

EUR/USD 1.1579  ·  GBP/USD 1.3415  ·  DAX 24,668  ·  Silver $67.02  ·  Nat Gas $3.05  ·  BP 545p  ·  Bund 20Y 3.42%  ·  ETH $1,674  ·  LINK $7.89  ·  BTC $63,577

Europe opens Friday in full relief mode. Overnight President Trump called off fresh strikes on Iran and pointed to a breakthrough in talks to end the war — the firmest de-escalation signal in months — and with this week's two macro hurdles now cleared (the hot-but-soft-core US May CPI and the ECB's 25 basis-point hike to 2.25%), the continent is trading a clean risk-on rotation rather than a war-and-policy binary.

The pivot is sharp and broad. The Stoxx 600 is up about 1.7%, led by the most war-sensitive corners of the market: travel and leisure surged more than 4.9% — TUI +8.5%, Ryanair +7.5%, Lufthansa +6.9% — while European banks added 3.7% as the curve and the rate outlook firmed. The mirror image is energy: with crude sliding on the peace signal, oil majors and the wider energy complex are the session's clear laggards, dragging on the FTSE 100 and on names like BP even as the broad tape rips higher.

The ECB hiked to 2.25% on Thursday — its first move since 2023 — and turned hawkish, lifting 2026 headline inflation forecasts to 3.0% and pricing roughly a 50% chance of a follow-up in September, even as it trimmed growth to 0.8%. The euro sold the fact, with EUR/USD slipping toward 1.1579 near its lowest since early April, as a firm dollar and a draining haven bid outweighed the rate-gap story. Attention now jumps to next week's back-to-back central-bank events: the Fed on June 17 — Kevin Warsh's debut meeting as Chair, expected to hold at...

Friday, 12 June 2026  ·  Capital Street FX Research Desk

USD/JPY 160.29  ·  AUD/USD 0.7031  ·  Hang Seng 24,702.6  ·  Copper $6.40  ·  WTI $86.30  ·  BTC $63,427.90  ·  DOGE $0.0860  ·  LTC $42.00  ·  Gold $4,205

Asia wakes up to the sharpest sentiment reversal of the month. Late Thursday, President Trump posted that a peace agreement with Iran — one that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the three-month conflict — is largely negotiated and will be announced shortly, with a memorandum of understanding awaiting final sign-off from Washington and Tehran. The market reaction was immediate and violent: crude oil cratered roughly 4% to its lowest level since mid-May near $86.30, ripping the geopolitical war premium out of the energy complex overnight and triggering a broad risk-on rotation into equities, industrial metals, and crypto just as the region heads into the year's most consequential central-bank week.

The reaction across the region is a clean, one-directional risk rally — almost the mirror image of the past month's war-driven defensiveness. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is firmer near 24,702.6 as oil-import-sensitive Asian equities cheer the prospect of a durable de-escalation, while Japan's Nikkei extends its advance with exporters tracking a still-weak yen. USD/JPY is pinned at 160.29, effectively glued to the intervention line even as the broader risk tape turns constructive — the Iran de-escalation removes one inflationary leg (energy) just days before a Bank of Japan that was already leaning hawkish on a separate leg (wholesale prices at 6.3%). Copper has rebounded sharply off three-week lows toward $6.40 per pound as the growth-friendly headline outweighs the loss of its modest oil-linked cost-push support, while gold holds a haven bid near $4,205 — a sign the de-escalation is being read as real but not yet done.

The crypto...

After seven days of nonstop nightmare, after the cryptocurrency market lost nearly $400 billion in market capitalization, after $7 billion in liquidations and panic not seen since the collapse of FTX, Monday finally arrived. It did not bring relief, but at least it offered a brief pause.

Bitcoin rose by 1.5%, reaching $63,053.

Sounds insignificant? Perhaps. After an 18% decline in a single week, one and a half percent is just a drop in the ocean. But in the crypto world, where fortunes are made and lost in a matter of hours, any green candle feels like a gift from fate.

Yet the optimism is cautious, tinged with anxiety about both the past and the future. The fundamental problems that triggered the selloff have not disappeared. Institutional investors continue pulling money out of spot Bitcoin ETFs. The conflict between Iran and Israel has not been resolved—it has merely frozen under a fragile ceasefire that could collapse at any moment. And the Federal Reserve continues to rattle markets with the prospect of persistently high interest rates.

Still, Bitcoin is up 1.5%.

The cryptocurrency managed to hold above the psychologically important $60,000 level, which it briefly fell below on Friday. Altcoins are showing signs of life as well: Ether gained 3.4%, while Solana and XRP each rose 1.3%. Even memecoins, which typically suffer the most during panic-driven selloffs, posted modest gains.

The market is trying to find a bottom.

The only question is whether it has actually found one—or whether this is simply another pause on the way down.

The biggest story of the past month is not missiles in the Middle East or even Federal Reserve policy.

The biggest story is spot Bitcoin ETFs.

...

On Sunday morning, the crypto community finally exhaled. Not loudly, not joyfully—the kind of exhale that comes after narrowly surviving a disaster. Bitcoin climbed back above $61,000, gaining 1.7% in just a few hours. On a normal day, that wouldn’t even make headlines. But this was no normal week. It was the most brutal week since the collapse of FTX and the imprisonment of Sam Bankman-Fried.

Let’s start with the numbers to grasp the scale of the damage. Bitcoin lost more than 17% over the week. Ethereum fell around 20%. The entire crypto market shed roughly $390 billion in market capitalization. Three hundred ninety billion dollars—more than the GDP of New Zealand or Portugal—vanished in just five days.

Friday was the real horror show. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $60,000. This wasn’t just another price level; it was a psychological wall. When Bitcoin broke above it, everyone was shouting, “To the moon! $100,000 next!” When it fell below, panic took over. If $60,000 couldn’t hold, where was the bottom? $50,000? $45,000? Nobody knew. Nobody wanted to find out. Everyone simply sold.

And now, on Sunday, traders stare at the chart in disbelief. Bitcoin is back around $61,800. It should be a reason to celebrate. Yet the optimism feels nervous, cautious. What if another crash comes tomorrow? What if this is just a dead-cat bounce?

Do you know what triggered the panic for many investors? Not macroeconomic news, not Federal Reserve comments, not even the stock market decline. It was news from a company called Strategy.

Formerly known as MicroStrategy, the company rebranded after Bitcoin effectively became its sole reason for existence.

Strategy spent decades building business intelligence software. Then founder Michael Saylor discovered Bitcoin and became obsessed....

The world of Bitcoin has its own hierarchy of resilience. Newcomers buy at the top and sell at the bottom. Experienced traders try to time the market but often get it wrong. And then there is a special class of investors: long-term holders. These are the people who buy coins and leave them untouched in their wallets for months or years. They do not react to the news. They do not stare at charts every hour. They simply believe.

They believe that Bitcoin is the future of money, that the current price is irrelevant, and that sooner or later everything will pay off.

These people form the backbone of the Bitcoin community. They are often called “diamond hands.” As long as they hold, the market has a floor. As long as they are not selling, a decline does not turn into a collapse.

But in recent weeks, something has broken. Long-term holders—those who have held their coins for at least 155 days—have become sellers. And they are selling a lot. A very large amount.

According to analysts at Compass Point, they sold roughly $2.4 billion worth of Bitcoin over the past two days. Two and a half billion dollars in just 48 hours. This is not profit-taking. This is an exodus. This is capitulation.

Ed Engel, a Compass Point analyst who tracks long-term holder behavior, notes that these investors were largely inactive from February through April. They sat on their coins, watched Bitcoin fall from its October highs above $126,000, and did not budge. They endured. They hoped for a reversal.

But hope has faded. The price has fallen below $64,000. The conflict in the Middle East is not ending—it is escalating. Institutional investors have withdrawn money from Bitcoin ETFs for twelve consecutive...

Fifty-seven percent. That’s how much Ethereum has fallen from its August 2025 peak. Today, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency trades at around $2,100, and looking at the chart, it’s hard to imagine that it once climbed to heights that seemed unreachable. Over the same period, the ETH/BTC ratio has dropped by 37%. Bears are celebrating, bulls are licking their wounds, and retail investors are asking the same question in panic: Is this the end for Ethereum?

Jeff Kendrick of Standard Chartered answers that question with a confidence that may seem provocative. No, it’s not the end. It’s a temporary disconnect between fundamentals and price. And if history teaches us anything, it’s that such gaps eventually close. The only question is when—and how high Ether can rise when it does.

Standard Chartered draws a comparison that is both encouraging and sobering.

The year is 2001. The dot-com bubble bursts. Technology stocks plunge. Amazon—now worth trillions of dollars—loses 90% of its market value. Yet inside the company, something important is happening that stock charts fail to capture. Business processes are improving. The customer base is growing. Infrastructure is becoming more reliable.

At the time, Jeff Bezos made a statement that would later become famous: “While the stock price was moving in the wrong direction, everything inside the company was moving in the right direction.”

Kendrick believes the same logic applies to ETH today.

On the surface, everything looks terrible. The price chart resembles a falling knife. Sentiment across the crypto market is bleak. Bitcoin ETFs are seeing outflows, macroeconomic conditions are weighing on risk assets, and geopolitical uncertainty is adding another layer of fear.

Yet beneath the surface, activity on the Ethereum blockchain remains strong. Transaction volumes are hovering near historic highs. Total value...

Wednesday became the kind of day Bitcoin investors would rather forget as quickly as possible. The world’s leading cryptocurrency plunged below seventy-six thousand dollars, touching 75,820 dollars and losing one point seven percent during the session. But the percentages are not even the main story. The real issue is the context.

While tech stocks on Wall Street and across Asia were climbing to fresh highs, Bitcoin moved sharply in the opposite direction. This divergence — with the NASDAQ and S&P 500 hitting record levels while crypto trades in the red — suggests something specific is happening inside the crypto market, unrelated to the broader appetite for risk. And the name of that “something” is a combination of geopolitical fear and institutional flight.

New U.S. strikes on Iranian targets earlier this week continue to poison sentiment across the crypto market. Iran called the attacks a violation of the ceasefire agreement. U.S. officials responded by describing the strikes as defensive in nature. But for traders, the legal wording means little. What matters is that the conflict is not cooling down — it is escalating again.

Moreover, the geopolitical fire has begun spreading beyond the direct U.S.-Iran confrontation. Reports emerged of Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon. This is no longer merely a bilateral conflict; it is beginning to resemble the expansion of a regional war. And for cryptocurrencies, which are still widely viewed as risk assets, such escalation is a direct hit.

The logic here, however, is more complicated than it first appears. Normally, periods of geopolitical tension should support Bitcoin as a defensive asset — digital gold. But what we are witnessing is the opposite. Why? Because the current conflict hurts Bitcoin indirectly through the monetary channel.

War drives oil prices higher. Higher oil prices...

Nine months. That’s how long it has been since Bitcoin was last this boring. The Bitcoin Volmex implied volatility index — the market’s thermometer of excitement — has dropped to 36.11, its lowest level since last September. The price is stuck around seventy-seven thousand dollars, nearly forty percent below the all-time high above one hundred twenty-six thousand reached in October. And while traders in the worlds of equities and semiconductors are losing their minds over massive rallies, the crypto market has sunk into a lethargic sleep. This is not a crash, not a collapse, not capitulation. It is something more insidious — a slow fading of interest.

To understand where the speculative capital went, you only need to look at the headlines of recent weeks. South Korea’s KOSPI is hitting record highs. Japan’s Nikkei is storming historical peaks. SK Hynix has just entered the trillion-dollar company club. Samsung is celebrating the resolution of its labor dispute and climbing higher as well. This entire fireworks show is happening in one sector — manufacturers of memory chips, AI accelerators, and related hardware. That is where the “hot money” has gone: into AI and semiconductor stocks, absorbing the same speculative capital that once fueled crypto rallies.

Orbit Markets co-founder Caroline Mauron puts it with brutal clarity: “Retail interest is flowing into other sectors in search of new trading opportunities, as confirmed by ETF outflows.” And the numbers do not lie. In May, around one billion dollars was withdrawn from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, breaking a two-month streak of inflows. Institutional investors who had enthusiastically entered crypto through regulated products are now taking profits or cutting positions.

The logic behind this exodus is simple and ruthless. Bitcoin is trapped in a range. It cannot break resistance and move to...

The first quarter of this year delivered several surprises for investors focused on small-cap companies, and the biggest one came from the oil rally. Analysts reviewed the performance of more than three dozen exchange-traded funds targeting small-cap stocks and discovered an interesting pattern. Topping the list with a return of 8.6% was a fund focused on small-cap value stocks. The secret behind its success lies in the portfolio structure: eight of its ten largest holdings belong to the energy sector.

The flagship holding of the leading fund was oil and gas producer Kosmos Energy, which owns assets in Africa and the Gulf of Mexico. Its shares surged alongside oil prices after tensions escalated in the Middle East. The same factor also pushed another fund to the top among international small-cap ETFs: nearly half of its portfolio is concentrated in the financial and consumer sectors, while energy accounts for one-fifth of its holdings. This combination of industries allowed the fund to ride the wave of the oil shock especially effectively.

The market logic is both simple and brutal. When conflict erupts in the Middle East and tankers are forced to take longer routes, every extra day at sea effectively reduces the available shipping fleet. Freight rates climb, oil prices rise, and companies involved in extracting or transporting crude become the biggest beneficiaries.

Fitness equipment maker Peloton, whose market capitalization has long slipped into small-cap territory, announced a partnership with streaming giant Spotify. Fitness and wellness content will now be available to Spotify Premium subscribers in most of the platform’s operating markets. Investors welcomed the news enthusiastically: the company’s stock gained 2.5% in a single day, reaching its highest level since early February.

However, behind this short-term optimism lies a far more complicated...