News

The crypto market is recovering from its pullback: market capitalization is rebounding, BTC has returned above $65K, and ETH has hit new two-month highs, but risks remain.

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalization has been gradually rising, reaching the $2.24T mark and recouping a significant portion of the losses incurred last Thursday and Friday. The recovery is being driven by a slight de-escalation between the US and Iran, which is fuelling risk appetite and leading to a series of higher local lows. Among the top altcoins over the past seven days, leading coins have shown gains ranging from Uniswap (+13%), Aave (+13.2%), and Aptos (+7.5%) to declines in Zcash (-4.8%), Cosmos (-4.1%), and NEAR Protocol (-2.6%).

Fig. 1. Bitcoin has resumed its upward trend following the sell-off at the end of the week.

On Friday, Bitcoin fell below the uptrend’s support line in place since the start of the month, hitting a local low of $63.6K. This was an attempt by the bears to push the price down towards the 50-day moving average. However, ahead of the start of active trading in Europe on Monday, the price once again exceeded $65K, with attempts to maintain an upward trend while remaining above a significant medium-term trend line.

Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin in the recovery, being the first to hit two-month highs, rising above $1,950 and returning to test key support levels. This outperformance points to growing optimism surrounding cryptocurrencies, suggesting the market is shifting into a ‘buy on the dip’ mode. Although the risk of a further crash cannot be entirely ruled out, it appears that the cryptocurrency market bottomed out in June, a view supported by the shift in sentiment towards Ethereum, which is now in its fifth week of gains.

Fig. 2. Ethereum has resumed its climb to new two-month...

Introduction

In a bold move to bridge the gap between British innovation and domestic capital, a consortium of the UK’s largest pension providers has announced plans to establish a landmark £1 billion UK Scale-up Fund. Backed by the government, the British Business Bank, and the Office for Investment, the initiative aims to inject patient capital into high-growth science and technology startups.

With endorsement from Prime Minister Andy Burnham, the strategy signals a decisive step toward "reindustrialising Britain" while unlocking higher potential returns for millions of pension savers.

What is the UK Scale-up Fund?

The proposed fund is a first-of-its-kind venture capital-style vehicle designed specifically to back British companies seeking to transition from early-stage startups to global market leaders.

The consortium behind the initiative includes major defined contribution, defined benefit, and Local Government Pension Scheme (LGPS) funds:

• Railpen

• Nest

• Border to Coast

• LGPS Central

• Local Pensions Partnership Investments (LPPI)

Together, these entities oversee hundreds of billions of pounds in assets. Working alongside the British Business Bank - which intends to co-invest alongside the group - the fund will target home-grown breakthroughs in science, deep tech, and advanced engineering, keeping both intellectual property and profits within the UK.

Andy Burnham’s Vision for Pensions and Industrial Strategy

The initiative builds on broader efforts to harness institutional capital for national economic development. It echoes the momentum of the Mansion House Accord, under which major pension funds previously committed to allocating a portion of their assets to unlisted British enterprise.

Commentators note that Andy Burnham’s pension strategy aligns with a renewed industrial vision:

"This new fund would help unlock good growth in every postcode, connecting pension investment with the entrepreneurs and technologies that will reindustrialise Britain and create the jobs of the future," stated Andy Burnham.

Chancellor John Healey and Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds...

Today's tape doesn't say "AI top"—it says the AI bull case is fragmenting. Demand is demonstrably real, but the value is migrating from the frontier labs toward infrastructure, memory, and data owners, and that migration is unfolding just as the 10-year spikes to 4.71% and capital rotates out of QQQ into energy, health, and financials. This is single-name rotation, not macro risk-off — for now.

The AI argument has stopped being one debate and become three

The old fight was demand: real or a bubble? On that, the bulls landed the day's cleanest punch. Wayne Liang points to the

$500B+

NVDA ... – SK Group infrastructure partnership—factory buildout plus next-gen memory co-development — and dares the bears to explain half a trillion in committed capital chasing 'demand that supposedly isn't real.' The tape backs the price side of his case: NVDA closed at $206.84, above its 20-day, with a fresh MACD buy signal (histogram +0.76) and still green MTD/YTD despite the selling. Fundstrat frames hyperscaler capex as rational return-on-capital allocation and expects the broad market to make new July highs; the All-In panel calls Google's spend a buy signal, citing a 32% historical ROIC and naming Alphabet the best public AI stock to own. Luke Gromen is the loudest voice on the other side, and his objection is structural, not directional: this buildout leans on ~$1T of repayable debt rather than the self-funding FCF of the dot-com era; tech is ~90% of GDP growth; and the US is running a 6% deficit 'in the midst of a bubble' — so a shock now hits a far more levered, concentrated system than in 2000. Wayne Liang explicitly rejects the Burry 2008 subprime analogy; Gromen's point is subtler and harder to wave away. But the genuinely new thread is neither demand nor leverage—it's...

million,

Bitcoin’s BTCUSD ... recent slide toward $64,000 has amplified losses among investors with short-term positions and brought key technical support levels into sharp focus. Data from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin short-term holder market capitalization declined to $236.2 billion, reaching its lowest level since mid-2024 and signaling intensified selling pressure from recent buyers.

Contents

1. Short-term holder losses mount as capitalization nears multi-year low

2. Key technical support: $63,800-$62,400 zone outlines next BTC move

Short-term holder losses mount as capitalization nears multi-year low

CryptoQuant’s on-chain metrics confirm that net realized profit and loss for Bitcoin holders have remained negative in recent weeks. This pattern reflects sustained selling below cost by those who purchased amid recent volatility, coinciding with repeated spikes in realized losses during the ongoing market retreat.

The steep drop in short-term holder capitalization suggests that market participants with positions opened over the last several months are continuing to exit. Despite these outflows, ownership trends after the sell-off remain unclear based on available blockchain data.

At $236.2 billion, the current value controlled by short-term holders is approaching its lowest level in more than a year. This contraction illustrates diminished purchasing enthusiasm among investors who entered the market in 2025 and 2026.

Technical analysts are paying close attention to several chart levels under pressure. Ali Charts highlighted $63,800 as a crucial decision point on the four-hour time frame, identifying it as immediate support and marking $67,000 as a potential upside target if this level holds.

Price action shows short-term holders realizing losses as Bitcoin approaches $64,000, with market attention focused on the $63,800 support. If support is maintained, recovery toward $67,000 is possible, but a break below could expose $60,000 as the next key level.

Should Bitcoin fail to hold the $63,800 mark, the next major technical target sits at $60,000, escalating the...

Friday's new US tariffs hit 60 economies at once, all under the same forced-labor justification, announced in the same Federal Register notice, at the same moment. And yet China and the European Union walked away with completely different results. China got the highest rate in the entire framework, 12.5%. The EU got the lowest, 10%, and its own trade officials are annoyed about being included at all rather than panicked about the number.

That gap isn't about who actually has a forced-labor problem. It's about who showed up with a deal already on the table.

Same Justification, Same Day, Different Rooms

The mechanics of Friday's action are simple on paper: countries with a forced-labor import ban in place, or a credible commitment to introduce one, got 10%. Everyone else got 12.5%. China, Japan, South Korea, and Switzerland landed in the higher bracket.

The EU, UK, Canada, and Mexico landed in the lower one.

But the justification doesn't actually hold up evenly across that split, and the EU's own reaction proves it. Bernd Lange, who chairs the European Parliament's trade committee, called the forced-labor framing "crazy," pointing out the EU already has legislation on this that's arguably stronger than what the US enforces itself. If the EU's rules are genuinely tougher and it still got tariffed, the forced-labor rationale isn't really deciding who pays what. Something else is.

What Actually Decided the Rate

That something else is the Turnberry framework, the trade pact Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hammered out last summer.

The EU's 10% rate under Friday's action wasn't earned through forced-labor compliance. It was already baked into a separate, pre-negotiated deal, and Washington structured this week's tariff to sit inside that existing arrangement rather than stack on top of it.

China had no equivalent deal...

Iran's military says it launched drone strikes this week on two US-linked facilities: Al-Azraq Air Base in Jordan, and Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain, a key hub for the US Navy's Fifth Fleet. Housing, equipment depots, and aircraft maintenance hangars were reportedly hit at both sites.

I want to be careful about how I frame this, because this is a real war with real casualties, not a trading abstraction. But from a markets lens, this specific escalation matters in a way that's genuinely different from the disruptions we've seen so far this month, and I think oil is still underpricing it.

A Different Kind of Target

Tanker attacks and pipeline sabotage disrupt supply. They're serious, and they've already moved prices hard this month. But striking bases that house US military personnel directly is a different category of action. 

It's not an attack on the machinery of oil transport. It's an attack on the United States itself, and historically, that kind of strike raises the odds of a proportional or escalatory US response in a way that tanker attacks alone don't.

This Didn't Happen in Isolation

A Ceasefire That Hasn't Held

Back in June, the US and Iran signed a Pakistan-brokered memorandum intended to end a war that began in February. Strikes have continued on both sides regardless. This week's attacks aren't a rupture of some quiet peace, they're the continuation of a conflict that never actually paused, dressed up periodically in diplomatic language that hasn't matched what's happening on the ground.

Three Fronts, Not One

Here's what actually worries me about the current picture: this isn't one flashpoint, it's several opening at once. Direct strikes on US bases in Jordan and Bahrain. A newly opened Red Sea front, with Houthi forces striking Saudi oil tankers and declaring a blockade...

• Earnings post big miss

• SpaceX & Tesla merger?

• Tesla Shares Slide 5% as Mixed Earnings Fail to Inspire Confidence

• Morgan Stanley analysts said that Tesla's accelerating capital expenditure cycle is a "necessary investment" to maintain its leadership in autonomy and robotics.

• The firm said investors are increasingly looking for “tangible” milestones from Tesla's robotaxi and Optimus programs as the company pours billions into AI initiatives.

• Canaccord analysts echoed that view, saying they want to see meaningful robotaxi deployments over the next six months as Tesla seeks to prove its long-term AI strategy.

Tesla delivered a classic mixed bag of results that left investors underwhelmed. Shares of the electric vehicle giant fell roughly 5% in after-hours trading as the company reported higher revenue alongside a sharp miss on earnings and thinner profits. Elon Musk’s ambitious vision for the future did little to offset concerns about the present.

📉 Profits Hit the Brakes

Tesla TSLA ... posted revenue of $28.2 billion, beating Wall Street expectations. That top-line strength, however, could not mask the weakness underneath. Earnings per share came in at just 33 cents, well below the consensus range of 52 to 55 cents. Net profit totaled $1.1 billion, down about 5% from the same period a year earlier. Operating profit fell even more sharply, dropping to $398 million from $923 million in the prior year.

The company delivered a record 480,000 vehicles during the quarter, a 25% increase year over year. Selling more cars is positive on the surface. Making significantly less money on each one is what investors noticed first. Automotive margins remained under pressure, reflecting the ongoing reality of a more competitive EV market and the costs of scaling production.

🤖 AI Dreams Aren’t Cheap

Tesla’s biggest expense is no longer its current business. It is the future it is...

A tweet went around this week: China and the US are working on a tariff cut plan agreed during their summit. Technically true. Also, in my view, badly timed to be read at face value.

Here's what's actually happening in the background while that headline circulates: the 10% global tariff the US has been applying under Section 122 expires tomorrow, July 24. It's expected to be replaced by an entirely different tariff mechanism, Section 301, hitting 60 countries including China. That's not part of the "cut" conversation anywhere. Nobody's tweeting about it. And I think it matters more than the headline that is getting tweeted about.

A Friendly Headline, Badly Timed

Trade headlines involving China have a way of landing exactly when traders are least equipped to evaluate them properly. This one dropped in the middle of a legal transition most people aren't tracking. If you only read the tweet, you'd walk away thinking US-China trade friction is broadly de-escalating. That's not wrong, exactly. It's just incomplete in a way that matters if you're pricing risk this week specifically.

What the "Cut" Actually Covers

The May Summit Framework

Back in May, Trump and Xi sat down in Beijing, Trump's first trip to the Chinese capital since 2017, and floated a "Board of Trade" concept: each side identifying roughly $30 billion worth of non-sensitive goods to cut tariffs on. 

That framework got a follow-up in early July, when both governments agreed in principle to fold agricultural products into it too.

Why This Is Narrower Than It Sounds

Here's my issue with how this gets reported: "tariff cut plan" makes it sound like a broad rollback. It isn't. It's a defined, negotiated list of specific goods, soybeans, certain agricultural categories, a bucket of "non-sensitive" industrial products. It's real, and it's good news...

Economic News Events & High-Impact Volatility: Trading Around Institutional Catalysts

Many retail traders live in fear of high-impact news releases like Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), or interest rate announcements from the Federal Reserve. They view these events as random, chaotic gambling windows where slippage destroys accounts.

To central bank algorithms, news releases are not chaotic at all—they are liquidity delivery vehicles.

High-impact macroeconomic news provides the sheer volume required for institutions to reprice assets instantly, clear major liquidity pools, and deliver price across multiple standard deviation expansion targets in minutes rather than days.

The Anatomy of a High-Impact News Event

When a major economic data point drops, the Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm (IPDA) undergoes a three-stage reaction:

1. The Pre-News Drift

During the hours leading up to an event like CPI, market volatility compresses. Spread widens slightly, and price forms a tight range. Traders place buy stop and sell stop orders above and below this range, creating dense clusters of liquidity.

2. The Initial Spike (Judas Swing)

The moment data drops, the algorithm expands spread and rapidly drives price in one direction. This initial surge rarely reflects the actual fundamental outcome of the news. Its primary job is to sweep local stop losses and trigger breakout orders directly into a higher-timeframe Point of Interest (POI).

3. The True Delivered Move

Once the algorithm taps the HTF zone and absorbs the opposing liquidity, price violently reverses and accelerates toward the real target—leaving large Fair Value Gaps in its wake.

Key Macroeconomic Catalysts to Monitor

Not all news events carry equal weight. When planning your trading week, mark these tier-1 events on your calendar:

• Central Bank Rate Decisions (FED, ECB, BOE): Sets medium-term directional bias and triggers structural trend shifts.

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) & Personal Consumption Expenditures...

It is that time of year again when the collective heart rate in German offices and home workspaces begins to climb. July 31, 2026, is approaching with relentless speed. For millions of taxpayers, this marks the absolute deadline for the 2025 tax return. While many view the Steuererklärung (tax return) as a tedious chore to be postponed until the final hour, the recent surge in search trends for the term Steuer proves that reality is finally catching up with everyone. In this post, we will not only analyze the hard facts but also take a critical look at the system and provide practical strategies for the final sprint.

The Merciless Deadline: Why July 31st is a Stumbling Block for Many

In recent years, the pandemic prompted the German government to offer generous deadline extensions. Many citizens and entrepreneurs became accustomed to this flexibility. However, that era has officially ended. The Finanzamt (tax office) is returning to its traditional strictness. Anyone obligated to file who has not submitted their documents by the coming Thursday must expect consequences that will hit their wallet directly.

But who exactly is required to file? It is not just the classic tradespeople or freelancers. The obligation also hits employees who received more than 410 euros in wage replacement benefits such as short-time work allowance (Kurzarbeitergeld), sick pay, or parental allowance in 2025. Furthermore, those with secondary income from rentals or those in tax class combinations 3 and 5 cannot avoid filing. Even small profits from private sales, such as cryptocurrencies or luxury watches, can trigger the filing requirement if the exemption limits are exceeded. In these cases, seamless documentation from major financial institutions like Deutsche Bank is vital, as their annual tax certificates serve as the foundation for reporting capital gains accurately.

The Financial Consequences of...