Education

Hi, this is NorthRay.🙌

While I’ve been learning Forex, indices, and gold trading, the entire internet has been shouting about Bitcoin.

— “Bitcoin hits a new all-time high!”
— “Crypto crashed — time to buy!”
— “A kid from Omsk bought Dogecoin and now drives a Lamborghini.”

I honestly tried to ignore it. But curiosity won.

So I decided to figure out what cryptocurrency actually is, how it works, what exchanges people trade it on, and whether it’s something a beginner trader like me should get involved with.

Spoiler: I still haven’t bought a single coin. But at least now I understand what everyone is talking about.

Cryptocurrency is digital money. It has no physical form. No coins in your pocket, no banknotes in your wallet — just numbers on a screen.

The biggest difference between crypto and traditional money is that cryptocurrencies don’t have a central bank. No one can simply print more Bitcoin whenever they feel like it. No one can easily freeze your wallet. No single authority decides what a coin should be worth.

Here’s a simple way to think about it:

Imagine a notebook that is stored on millions of computers around the world at the same time. Every page in that notebook is a “block.” Whenever money is transferred, everyone can see the record. It can’t be erased, altered, or reversed.

That’s blockchain — the technology that powers cryptocurrency.🤔

When I started learning about crypto, I identified five key differences from traditional money.

No bank or government controls cryptocurrency. It belongs to everyone and no one at the same time.

There will never be more than 21 million Bitcoins. They can’t be “printed” like dollars or rubles. This helps...

As long as I traded against the trend, I kept losing. The moment I made friends with it, everything changed.

Hi, this is NorthRay.💪

There was a time when I opened trades simply because “the price is too high, it has to fall now” or “the price is too low, it has to rise now.”

I wasn’t paying attention to the trend. I was trading my feelings.

And do you know what happened?

During an uptrend, I would open Sell positions (because “it can’t keep going up forever”). The price kept rising. My losses kept growing. I held on, hoping for a reversal. Eventually, I either closed at a loss or got stopped out.

Then I read a phrase that every experienced trader repeats:

“The trend is your friend.”

I decided to test it. And surprisingly, once I started trading with the trend, my trades began closing in profit much more often. Not always, but noticeably more often.

Today I’ll explain what trends are, how to identify them, and why trading against them is like swimming upstream in a mountain river.

A trend is the direction of price movement.

If the price is moving up, it’s an uptrend (bullish trend).

If the price is moving down, it’s a downtrend (bearish trend).

If the price is moving sideways within a range, it’s a sideways trend (range or consolidation).

Think of it this way:

Imagine you’re standing on an escalator.

An uptrend is an escalator moving upward. You can stand still and it will carry you up. You can walk up and get there faster. But if you try to walk down, you’ll struggle.

A downtrend is an escalator moving downward. Walking up is difficult and risky.

A sideways market is an...

Currency & Commodity Analysis:

US Dollar Index

The US dollar index remained above 99 on Tuesday, after rising in the previous session, as stalled US-Iran peace talks increased safe-haven demand, while inflation risks and interest rate expectations came into focus. On Monday, Iranian media reported that Tehran had suspended communication with Washington in response to Israeli attacks in Lebanon. Meanwhile, President Trump stated that discussions are ongoing and hinted that a memorandum of understanding with Iran on reopening the Strait of Hormuz could be reached next week. However, rising energy-driven inflation has led markets to anticipate a possible Federal Reserve rate hike before the end of the year. Investors are now awaiting Tuesday's Jolts job openings report, followed by Friday's closely watched US monthly employment data, for further insight into the Fed's policy outlook.

The US dollar index will be under pressure. The dollar index faces greater downside risk, with 98.79 (the Bollinger Band middle line) and 98.58 (the 200-day moving average) serving as key short-term support levels. A break below these levels could lead to a move towards 97.62 for support. From a cross-market technical perspective, the dollar index and US Treasury yields are currently showing some divergence. On the 240-minute chart of the dollar index, the price has fallen from the mid-May high of 99.55, currently trading at 99.20. The MACD histogram is -0.0169, with both the DIFF and DEA lines below the zero line and in a bearish divergence, indicating the downtrend has not yet reversed. Support levels to watch are the psychological level of 99.00 and the previous pullback low of 98.75; a break below these levels would target the next support zone at the recent low of 97.62.

Consider shorting the US Dollar Index at 99.30 today, with a stop-loss at...

Hi, this is NorthRay.🆕

Remember when I told you I wanted to buy Apple but couldn't because the market was closed?

Then I opened a trade on the SPX (the S&P 500 index). It closed with a small profit.

And that got me hooked.

Because there's something almost magical about indices. You buy one thing—and instantly get exposure to hundreds of companies. You don't have to guess whether Apple will soar or Tesla will fall. You're simply betting on the entire U.S. economy.

Spoiler: I liked it.

Today I'll explain what indices are, how they work, and why I now watch them almost as often as EUR/USD.

An index is a basket of stocks.

Instead of buying 500 individual stocks, you buy one instrument—the index—and it moves according to the average performance of the companies inside it.

Here's a simple analogy:

Imagine you're a teacher. You don't need to know how every student performed on an exam. You only need to know the class average.

If the average score is high, the class did well. If it's low, the class struggled.

An index is basically the average score of a group of companies.

Some companies inside the index may be rising while others are falling. The index shows the overall result.📉

There aren't that many. I learned five of them, and that's enough to get started.

I've traded both individual stocks (Apple) and indices (S&P 500). Here's what I've learned.

A single company can drop 10–20% because of one bad news story: a management scandal, a failed product launch, or a lawsuit.

An index made up of 500 companies is less likely to suffer such...

Hi, this is NorthRay.💥

For a long time, I thought: “Technical analysis is enough. The chart reflects everything. Why should I bother with reports, GDP figures, and interest rates?”

I drew support and resistance levels, watched the stochastic oscillator, and opened trades.

And often, technical analysis would tell me “buy.” The price would move up at first, then suddenly reverse and crash lower. No apparent reason. No warning.

I’d sit there thinking:

“What went wrong? The level was solid...”

Then I started reading the news.

It turned out that inflation data had been released in the U.S. that day. Or the Federal Reserve Chair had made comments about interest rates. Or Europe was dealing with a crisis.

My technical analysis wasn’t wrong. It simply didn’t know what the market already knew.

That’s when I realized: the chart is the result. The cause lies in fundamentals.

So I started studying fundamental analysis.💬

If technical analysis focuses on the chart itself (candlesticks, levels, indicators), fundamental analysis focuses on what’s behind the chart.

A country's economy. Central bank actions. Politics. Natural disasters. Wars. Elections.

Everything that can affect the supply and demand of currencies, stocks, or commodities.

A simple example:

Imagine you want to buy an apartment in a city.

Technical analysis looks at housing prices over the past year and says:

"Prices usually rise in spring and fall in autumn. It's spring now, so prices will probably go up."

Fundamental analysis looks at the city itself:

Is a new factory being built? (More people move in → prices rise.)

Is a major employer shutting down? (People move away → prices fall.)

Are mortgage rates being lowered? (Housing becomes more affordable → prices rise.)

Technical analysis is about history and recurring patterns.

Fundamental analysis is about...

Hi, this is NorthRay.🎉

Remember when I told you about the time I opened a trade, and an hour later the price suddenly shot in the opposite direction — and I had no idea why?

I sat there staring at the chart thinking:

“What just happened? Did someone drop a nuclear bomb? Has the market gone insane?”

Then I checked the news.

Turns out that exact same hour, the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) said a couple of sentences about interest rates.
The market reacted.
My trade died.

That was the first time I heard about the economic calendar.

And I realized: opening trades blindly without knowing what news is coming out today is like walking through a minefield blindfolded.🧐

An economic calendar is a schedule of all major economic events around the world.

When the U.S. unemployment report comes out.
When the European Central Bank announces interest rates.
When Germany publishes industrial data.
When world leaders make important agreements.

All of it is in the calendar.

Simple analogy:

Imagine you want to cross the street. You look at the traffic light.
Green — you walk.
Red — you stop.

The economic calendar is your traffic light. It tells you:

“Be careful now, an important report is coming out.”
Or:
“The market is calm right now, it’s okay to trade.”

Without a calendar, you’re crossing the street with your eyes closed.
Maybe you’ll get lucky. Maybe not.🧠

The market is not just a chart. It’s people. Millions of traders around the world.

They read the news.
And they make decisions.

Good economic news → people buy the country’s currency → price goes up.

Bad news → people...

Hi, this is NorthRay.😎

For a long time, I looked at charts like abstract art.

Red candles, green candles, lines crawling somewhere across the screen. I understood where the price moved, but I didn’t understand WHY it moved there or WHERE it might go next.

I traded randomly. I clicked Buy because “I feel like it’ll go up.” I clicked Sell because “it seems too high.”

That worked about half the time. Because honestly, both I and my cat could flip a coin.

And then I told myself: “Enough guessing. Time to understand.”

That’s when I started learning technical analysis.

Honestly? I thought it was something complicated and unnecessary.

“Why do I need all these lines and patterns? The market is chaotic. News and crowd emotions decide everything.”

I was wrong.

Yes, news matters. Yes, emotions drive the crowd. But all of that is REFLECTED on the chart. Price doesn’t come out of nowhere. It’s created by the actions of thousands of traders.

And those actions have patterns.

Technical analysis isn’t magic. It’s simply an attempt to find repeating patterns on a chart and use them to make forecasts.

In simple terms:

If every time the price touches a certain level it bounces upward, that’s not a coincidence. It means buy orders are sitting there.

Technical analysis helps identify those levels.🔥

I didn’t try to learn everything at once. I have no goal of becoming a professor.

I decided to master three basic things that, according to experienced traders, cover 80% of a beginner’s needs.

My minimum program:

Support and resistance levels

Trend lines

One confirmation indicator (for me it’s the Stochastic oscillator, which I already wrote about)

That’s it....

Hi, this is NorthRay.

For a long time, I looked at a clean chart. Just candles. No lines. No colorful bands. Pure simplicity.

I used to think: “Why would I need indicators? I can already see the market.”

Then I realized I wasn’t seeing everything.

Trader friends in chat rooms would say things like: “Stochastic is overbought,” “RSI shows divergence,” “The moving average got broken.”

I nodded and pretended to understand, but inside I was thinking: “What are you even talking about?”

So I decided to figure it out.🔎

An indicator is a mathematical formula that draws an extra line (or histogram, or zones) on the chart to help you make decisions.

It does not predict the future. Remember that once and for all.

It simply processes past price data and displays it in a convenient form.

Here’s a simple analogy:

You look at the thermometer outside your window. It says -10°C. You think: “It’s cold outside, I should wear a jacket.”

The thermometer doesn’t predict tomorrow’s weather. It just tells you what’s happening now. The decision is yours.

An indicator is basically a thermometer for the chart. It says: “The market is overheated right now,” or “The market is too cold right now.” What you do with that information is up to you.💬

I asked myself that question too. Here’s what I came up with.

Three reasons:

When I only look at candles, my eyes can deceive me. One candle looks huge and scary. It feels like the whole market is about to collapse.

An indicator gives an objective number. For example: “Stochastic shows 85 — this is an overbought zone. Statistically, price is more likely to...

Hey, this is NorthRay.💪

Remember how I said I was going to open a trade on Apple?

Well… I tried. Honestly.

I spent the evening watching the AAPL chart, preparing, analyzing everything. But I decided to wait until morning so I’d be fresh.

I wake up at 8 AM Moscow time. Open the terminal. Click on Apple.

…Nothing.

The chart is frozen. The price isn’t moving. The Buy and Sell buttons are greyed out.

My first thought was: “That’s it. I got blocked. The broker is dead. The internet broke.”

And then it hit me.

The U.S. stock market was asleep.

At 8 AM Moscow time, it’s still the middle of the night on Wall Street. The exchange wouldn’t open for several more hours.

That’s how I learned markets operate on different schedules.🤐

I had to postpone Apple. But I couldn’t just sit there doing nothing.

So I checked which instruments were available at that moment. I saw SPX (the S&P 500 index — basically a basket of 500 major U.S. companies).

Unlike Apple, SPX is available for trading almost 24 hours a day with many brokers (through CFDs — contracts for difference). So I was able to open a trade in the morning.🤥

Instrument: SPX (S&P 500 Index)

Type: Sell

Volume: 0.10 lot

Stop-loss and take-profit: Set (of course)

Why Sell: The market looked overbought to me, and after yesterday’s rally I expected a pullback

The trade is still open. No result yet. We’ll see what happens.

I used to think trading was basically 24/7. Sit down whenever you want and trade.

Turns out… not exactly.🧐

The Forex market operates 24 hours a day,...

Hi, this is NorthRay.💰

You know what saved me from repeating the same stupid mistakes over and over again?

Not some super strategy.
Not a smart mentor.
Not even a stop-loss (though that helps too).

It was something simple that I ignored at first.

A trader’s journal.

When I first heard about it, I thought:
“Seriously? I have to write too? I came here to trade, not write essays.”

For the first two weeks, I wrote nothing down.
I opened trades randomly. Closed them. Forgot about them.

And you know what happened?

I kept making the same mistakes. Again and again. Like a broken record.

Then I read a quote from an experienced trader:

“If you don’t record your trades, you’re not a trader. You’re a casino gambler who doesn’t even remember what he bet on.”

So I started a journal.

And now I can’t imagine trading without it.🔔

A trader’s journal is a place where you record every trade you make.

Not just: “Bought, sold, made money.”

But in detail:

— What you bought/sold (EUR/USD, gold, Apple).
— Why you entered (saw a signal, breakout, news release).
— Position size.
— Where you placed your stop-loss and take-profit.
— The outcome (profit/loss and how much).
— What you felt (fear, greed, confidence, panic).
— What you did wrong (or right).

It’s like a pilot’s flight log. Pilots record everything so that if something goes wrong, they can understand why.

And avoid repeating the mistake.🛠️

When someone first recommended a journal to me, I asked:

“What’s the point? I already remember my trades.”

Spoiler: I didn’t.

Three days later, I had already forgotten why I opened certain trades and how I felt at the time.

Here’s...