Friday, 12 June 2026  ·  Capital Street FX Research Desk

EUR/USD 1.1579  ·  GBP/USD 1.3415  ·  DAX 24,668  ·  Silver $67.02  ·  Nat Gas $3.05  ·  BP 545p  ·  Bund 20Y 3.42%  ·  ETH $1,674  ·  LINK $7.89  ·  BTC $63,577

Europe opens Friday in full relief mode. Overnight President Trump called off fresh strikes on Iran and pointed to a breakthrough in talks to end the war — the firmest de-escalation signal in months — and with this week's two macro hurdles now cleared (the hot-but-soft-core US May CPI and the ECB's 25 basis-point hike to 2.25%), the continent is trading a clean risk-on rotation rather than a war-and-policy binary.

The pivot is sharp and broad. The Stoxx 600 is up about 1.7%, led by the most war-sensitive corners of the market: travel and leisure surged more than 4.9% — TUI +8.5%, Ryanair +7.5%, Lufthansa +6.9% — while European banks added 3.7% as the curve and the rate outlook firmed. The mirror image is energy: with crude sliding on the peace signal, oil majors and the wider energy complex are the session's clear laggards, dragging on the FTSE 100 and on names like BP even as the broad tape rips higher.

The ECB hiked to 2.25% on Thursday — its first move since 2023 — and turned hawkish, lifting 2026 headline inflation forecasts to 3.0% and pricing roughly a 50% chance of a follow-up in September, even as it trimmed growth to 0.8%. The euro sold the fact, with EUR/USD slipping toward 1.1579 near its lowest since early April, as a firm dollar and a draining haven bid outweighed the rate-gap story. Attention now jumps to next week's back-to-back central-bank events: the Fed on June 17 — Kevin Warsh's debut meeting as Chair, expected to hold at...

Friday, 12 June 2026  ·  Capital Street FX Research Desk

USD/JPY 160.29  ·  AUD/USD 0.7031  ·  Hang Seng 24,702.6  ·  Copper $6.40  ·  WTI $86.30  ·  BTC $63,427.90  ·  DOGE $0.0860  ·  LTC $42.00  ·  Gold $4,205

Asia wakes up to the sharpest sentiment reversal of the month. Late Thursday, President Trump posted that a peace agreement with Iran — one that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the three-month conflict — is largely negotiated and will be announced shortly, with a memorandum of understanding awaiting final sign-off from Washington and Tehran. The market reaction was immediate and violent: crude oil cratered roughly 4% to its lowest level since mid-May near $86.30, ripping the geopolitical war premium out of the energy complex overnight and triggering a broad risk-on rotation into equities, industrial metals, and crypto just as the region heads into the year's most consequential central-bank week.

The reaction across the region is a clean, one-directional risk rally — almost the mirror image of the past month's war-driven defensiveness. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is firmer near 24,702.6 as oil-import-sensitive Asian equities cheer the prospect of a durable de-escalation, while Japan's Nikkei extends its advance with exporters tracking a still-weak yen. USD/JPY is pinned at 160.29, effectively glued to the intervention line even as the broader risk tape turns constructive — the Iran de-escalation removes one inflationary leg (energy) just days before a Bank of Japan that was already leaning hawkish on a separate leg (wholesale prices at 6.3%). Copper has rebounded sharply off three-week lows toward $6.40 per pound as the growth-friendly headline outweighs the loss of its modest oil-linked cost-push support, while gold holds a haven bid near $4,205 — a sign the de-escalation is being read as real but not yet done.

The crypto...

Currency and Commodity Analysis:

US Dollar Index

The US dollar index closed up 0.09% at 100.04 on Wednesday, having fallen as low as 99.71 during the session. This was due to the US May Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 4.2% year-on-year, the largest increase in three years, but in line with market expectations and not significantly increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate hike this year. It fell to around 99.65 on Thursday. The lack of a widely feared acceleration in core inflation indicates that soaring energy prices have not yet transmitted to the Fed's key indicators. Short-term US Treasury traders have reduced their bets on a September rate hike but remain confident that a rate hike before the end of October is inevitable. The situation in the Middle East deteriorated further on Wednesday, with the conflict spreading outwards from the Persian Gulf region. As a result, risk aversion spread rapidly, with funds accelerating their inflow into traditional safe-haven assets such as the US dollar, providing strong support for the US dollar index near the 100 level. If the conflict escalates further, the demand for the US dollar as a safe haven may continue to strengthen.

The US dollar index has recently shown a fluctuating upward trend on the daily chart, with prices recovering steadily from a recent low of 97.62 and currently trading around 99.90, approaching the previous high of 100.64. In terms of moving averages, the price has stabilized above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, as well as the medium- and long-term moving averages, which are in a bullish alignment, providing support and maintaining the medium-term upward trend. Regarding indicators, the MACD DIFF line continues to run above the DEA line, with the red bars expanding, indicating continued bullish momentum; the RSI indicator has...

Thursday, 11 June 2026  ·  New York

★  SPCX $135/share · $1.75T Valuation · 4x Oversubscribed · Trades Jun 12  ·  Iran Threatens Starlink  ·  Trump Strikes Tonight  ★

S&P 500 ~7,480  ·  Nasdaq ~30,800  ·  SPCX IPO $135  ·  Intel +10.3%  ·  Oracle -11.9%  ·  Brent $95  ·  BTC ~$62,650  ·  US 10Y 4.57%

Thursday 11 June 2026 is the most consequential single evening in US equity markets in years. SpaceX — the world's largest private company — prices its IPO at $135 per share tonight, with trading beginning on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX at approximately late morning to early afternoon ET on Friday 12 June. The offering is 4x oversubscribed with demand exceeding $250 billion against a planned $75 billion raise. At $135 per share, the implied valuation is $1.75 trillion — making this the largest IPO in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's 2019 debut and debuting SpaceX as roughly the seventh-largest US company by market cap, above Tesla. The pricing locks in tonight as the books close following today's dedicated retail investor event for approximately 1,500 participants.

The market environment into which SpaceX is launching is one of extraordinary complexity. Trump warned this morning he will hit Iran very hard tonight — the same night SpaceX prices — creating a direct geopolitical threat to the company itself: Iran has declared that all of Elon Musk's companies in West Asia, including SpaceX's Starlink satellite network and regional ground stations, are military targets. This is not a standard IPO backdrop. Simultaneously, the ECB delivered its first rate hike in nearly three years today at 2.25%, UK gilt yields hit 4.65%, and the US 10-year yield sits at 4.57% — the highest real rate environment for large-cap equity valuations in the current cycle....

Thursday, 11 June 2026  ·  London / Frankfurt

★  ECB HIKES 25bp to 2.25% · Iran War Escalates · Trump Threats New Strikes · Brent $95+ · UK Gilt 4.65%  ★

EUR/USD 1.1580  ·  GBP/USD 1.3380  ·  Brent $95.40  ·  UK Gilt 4.65%  ·  Bund 3.10%  ·  FTSE 10,395  ·  Shell 3,350p  ·  ETH $1,668  ·  XRP $1.135

The European session on 11 June 2026 is defined by the ECB delivering its first rate hike since September 2023 — 25 basis points to 2.25%. The hike itself was 99% priced; what is not priced is what Christine Lagarde says at her 13:45 BST press conference. A hawkish signal toward September pushes EUR/USD toward 1.17; a one-and-done pause fades the rally back toward 1.15. The ECB is hiking into a contracting Eurozone economy — Q1 GDP revised to -0.1% quarter-on-quarter — because Iran-war energy inflation at 3.2% CPI leaves it no alternative. This is stagflation-lite, and Lagarde's communication challenge today is to explain why the ECB is tightening even as growth disappoints.

Trump threatened new strikes on Iran overnight — his exact words: the US will hit Iran very hard tonight — following Iranian retaliatory attacks on US Air Force installations in Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain. Brent crude is above $95 on the threat and the Hormuz blockade. UK gilt yields have surged to 4.65%, the highest since the post-mini-budget panic of late 2022, as Iran-war energy inflation reprices both ECB and BoE rate paths simultaneously. Shell is up 3.5% on Brent and its Q1 earnings beat, providing the FTSE 100 with some energy-sector cushion. SpaceX's IPO pricing at $135 per share — four times oversubscribed with a 30% retail allocation — is the week's risk-appetite wildcard signal.

Thursday, 11 June 2026  ·  Tokyo / Sydney / Hong Kong

★  US CPI 4.2% YoY (3-yr high) but Core +0.2% MoM — Soft-Core Split  ·  BoJ Hike to 1.00% on 16 Jun Near-Certain  ·  Hormuz Blockaded  ★

USD/JPY 160.05  ·  AUD/USD 0.7004  ·  Nikkei 64,188  ·  Copper $6.25  ·  Corn $4.18  ·  LINK $7.78  ·  USDT $0.998  ·  BTC $62,650  ·  Gold $4,310

Asia opens caught between relief and fear. Overnight the US May CPI printed a hot-headline, soft-core split — 4.2% YoY, the fastest in nearly three years, but with core decelerating to just +0.2% month-on-month. Washington's fresh strikes on Iran and a blockaded Strait of Hormuz kept geopolitical risk live. Into that crosscurrent, the region is positioning for the single largest regional catalyst of 2026: a near-certain Bank of Japan hike to 1.00% on 16 June, the first time Japanese rates reach that level since 1995.

Japan's Nikkei 225 opened sharply lower near 63,330 before erasing the early drop to roughly 64,188 as the soft core-CPI read and record Korean semiconductor exports cushioned an early chip-led slide. USD/JPY is pinned near 160.05 — right on the line markets treat as an intervention trigger — even as Japanese wholesale inflation runs at a three-year-high 6.3%. Copper held firm near $6.25 on a structural supply deficit, corn slid to a four-month low on a bumper US crop, while gold kept a haven bid near $4,310 and crude stayed elevated on the Hormuz premium. Bitcoin sits near $62,650, having reclaimed the figure after briefly breaking below $60,000 for the first time since 2024, with the soft core-CPI print trimming losses but the looming BoJ hike — historically a trigger for sharp carry-unwind corrections — capping any bounce.

The binary that overhangs the week: whether the BoJ's move on...

In a world where headlines are dominated by missile strikes, falling cryptocurrencies, and corporate scandals, some stories pass almost unnoticed. They do not flood social media feeds, cause traders to panic, or provoke angry political commentary. Yet these are often the stories that truly change the world—stories about science, medicine, and victories over diseases that once seemed like an unavoidable sentence.

One such story has emerged from Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Taipei. Elixiron Immunotherapeutics, a company listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange (ticker: 7871), has announced interim results from a Phase 2 clinical trial of its drug, enrupatinib, for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease.

Alzheimer’s is a devastating illness that slowly extinguishes patients’ lives while turning their loved ones into helpless witnesses.

For now, these are only interim data. The evaluable group consists of just seven participants. The study is open-label, with no placebo group and no blinding. The scientific community—hardened by thousands of failed Alzheimer’s trials—approaches such announcements with caution bordering on cynicism. How many “breakthroughs” have collapsed under the weight of larger, more rigorous studies? Far too many.

Yet there is something in Elixiron’s data that has made even skeptics take notice: the absence of serious adverse events, the absence of hepatotoxicity (liver toxicity) that doomed many previous drugs in the same class, a reduction in neuroinflammation markers in 57% of participants, and one patient who improved by 8 points on the MMSE (Mini-Mental State Examination).

Eight points.

For those unfamiliar with the MMSE, it is a widely used cognitive assessment scored out of 30 points. A decline of 2–4 points per year is considered typical progression for Alzheimer’s disease. An improvement of 8 points could represent a shift from moderate dementia to mild impairment—or even a return toward normal...

Wednesday, June 10, 2026. The annual shareholder meeting of Target Corporation. One of America’s largest retailers, a chain known to families from Maine to California. Three proposals were on the agenda. One of them was a bombshell: a proposal to separate the roles of board chair and executive leadership. In simple terms, it would have removed Brian Cornell from the position of executive chair, leaving him on the board but without operational authority.

Some investors, particularly institutional shareholders, had been pushing for this change for years. Their argument was straightforward: “Cornell served as CEO for 11 years. He led the company through a period of success, but that success eventually faded. The stock has fallen by roughly half since 2021. Walmart and Costco have pulled ahead. It’s time for new leadership, and for the old leader to step aside without continuing to influence day-to-day operations.”

But shareholders saw things differently. According to Reuters, the proposal for an independent chair was rejected. Two other shareholder proposals—one calling for greater disclosure about pesticide use in private-label products and another addressing microfiber emissions—were also voted down. All board nominees were elected.

Cornell stays.

He will continue overseeing his successor, Mike Fiddelke, who became CEO in February 2026. Fiddelke has already pledged to invest $2 billion this year to improve inventory management and sharpen Target’s pricing strategy.

Yet one question remains: why did shareholders who have watched the stock struggle over recent years decide not to change the company’s leadership structure? And what does that say about Target’s future?

For those who do not closely follow the American retail industry, Brian Cornell is a legendary figure. He joined Target in 2014 when...

You wake up on Thursday, open your trading terminal, and can hardly believe your eyes. WTI crude oil, which was trading near $94 just yesterday, is now changing hands at $91.88. A drop of 2.05% in just a few hours. The $88 support level that held earlier this week failed to provide a floor. Oil broke lower and continues to slide.

What happened? Did the war in the Middle East suddenly end? No. Iran and Israel exchanged strikes. The United States launched new attacks on Iranian targets. Iran threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz. All of this happened within the last 24 hours. Oil should have been rising, yet it is falling.

A paradox? Only at first glance.

The oil market today is not a mirror of geopolitics. It is a mirror of expectations. And expectations change faster than missile trajectories.

Let's take a closer look.

On Thursday morning, WTI found support at $85.95, the low of today's session. Resistance stands at $95.47. That's an unusually wide range of nearly $10, signaling extreme volatility.

Brent crude is also declining, though slightly less sharply—down 1.75% to $94.73 per barrel. The spread between the two benchmarks is $2.85 in favor of Brent. That's a fairly normal level for a market that is not expecting immediate disruptions to Persian Gulf supply.

The U.S. dollar, which typically strengthens during periods of panic, weakened slightly today. The DXY Dollar Index slipped 0.03% to 99.96. A symbolic move, perhaps, but an important one: the dollar is no longer acting as an unquestioned safe haven. Or rather, investors are no longer convinced that the conflict will escalate into a catastrophe.

But let's dig deeper.

There are three main reasons, and all of them point to...

When you wake up in Singapore, Tokyo, or Shanghai on Thursday and open the charts, you see something unusual. Asian currencies are neither falling nor rising. They are standing still — like rabbits frozen in the headlights.

The South Korean won gained just 0.2%, a move barely beyond statistical noise. The Indian rupee also rose 0.2%. The Singapore dollar, Australian dollar, and Chinese yuan were virtually unchanged. The Japanese yen remained stuck at 160.52 per U.S. dollar.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is holding near 100. It is not falling, despite inflation data released yesterday that ING analysts described as “softer than expected.” It is not rising either, even after overnight reports of new U.S. military strikes against Iranian targets. It is simply standing still — as if the entire world is holding its breath.

And that is what makes this calm so unsettling. Beneath the surface are forces capable of tearing markets apart at any moment: new U.S. strikes on Iran, the threat of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices that have surged but have not yet been fully reflected in currency markets, U.S. inflation accelerating to a three-year high, and the possibility of a Bank of Japan rate hike next week while its governor is reportedly hospitalized.

Traders do not know what to do. They are neither buying nor selling. They are waiting for clarity.

And there is none.

Let’s examine what happened over the last 24 hours and where Asian currencies could head next.

Wednesday night brought fresh concerns. U.S. forces reportedly carried out additional strikes against Iranian targets. The Pentagon described them as a “proportional response” to earlier Iranian actions, including...