Crypto

Friday, 12 June 2026  ·  Capital Street FX Research Desk

EUR/USD 1.1579  ·  GBP/USD 1.3415  ·  DAX 24,668  ·  Silver $67.02  ·  Nat Gas $3.05  ·  BP 545p  ·  Bund 20Y 3.42%  ·  ETH $1,674  ·  LINK $7.89  ·  BTC $63,577

Europe opens Friday in full relief mode. Overnight President Trump called off fresh strikes on Iran and pointed to a breakthrough in talks to end the war — the firmest de-escalation signal in months — and with this week's two macro hurdles now cleared (the hot-but-soft-core US May CPI and the ECB's 25 basis-point hike to 2.25%), the continent is trading a clean risk-on rotation rather than a war-and-policy binary.

The pivot is sharp and broad. The Stoxx 600 is up about 1.7%, led by the most war-sensitive corners of the market: travel and leisure surged more than 4.9% — TUI +8.5%, Ryanair +7.5%, Lufthansa +6.9% — while European banks added 3.7% as the curve and the rate outlook firmed. The mirror image is energy: with crude sliding on the peace signal, oil majors and the wider energy complex are the session's clear laggards, dragging on the FTSE 100 and on names like BP even as the broad tape rips higher.

The ECB hiked to 2.25% on Thursday — its first move since 2023 — and turned hawkish, lifting 2026 headline inflation forecasts to 3.0% and pricing roughly a 50% chance of a follow-up in September, even as it trimmed growth to 0.8%. The euro sold the fact, with EUR/USD slipping toward 1.1579 near its lowest since early April, as a firm dollar and a draining haven bid outweighed the rate-gap story. Attention now jumps to next week's back-to-back central-bank events: the Fed on June 17 — Kevin Warsh's debut meeting as Chair, expected to hold at...

Friday, 12 June 2026  ·  Capital Street FX Research Desk

USD/JPY 160.29  ·  AUD/USD 0.7031  ·  Hang Seng 24,702.6  ·  Copper $6.40  ·  WTI $86.30  ·  BTC $63,427.90  ·  DOGE $0.0860  ·  LTC $42.00  ·  Gold $4,205

Asia wakes up to the sharpest sentiment reversal of the month. Late Thursday, President Trump posted that a peace agreement with Iran — one that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the three-month conflict — is largely negotiated and will be announced shortly, with a memorandum of understanding awaiting final sign-off from Washington and Tehran. The market reaction was immediate and violent: crude oil cratered roughly 4% to its lowest level since mid-May near $86.30, ripping the geopolitical war premium out of the energy complex overnight and triggering a broad risk-on rotation into equities, industrial metals, and crypto just as the region heads into the year's most consequential central-bank week.

The reaction across the region is a clean, one-directional risk rally — almost the mirror image of the past month's war-driven defensiveness. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is firmer near 24,702.6 as oil-import-sensitive Asian equities cheer the prospect of a durable de-escalation, while Japan's Nikkei extends its advance with exporters tracking a still-weak yen. USD/JPY is pinned at 160.29, effectively glued to the intervention line even as the broader risk tape turns constructive — the Iran de-escalation removes one inflationary leg (energy) just days before a Bank of Japan that was already leaning hawkish on a separate leg (wholesale prices at 6.3%). Copper has rebounded sharply off three-week lows toward $6.40 per pound as the growth-friendly headline outweighs the loss of its modest oil-linked cost-push support, while gold holds a haven bid near $4,205 — a sign the de-escalation is being read as real but not yet done.

The crypto...

Thursday, 11 June 2026  ·  New York

★  SPCX $135/share · $1.75T Valuation · 4x Oversubscribed · Trades Jun 12  ·  Iran Threatens Starlink  ·  Trump Strikes Tonight  ★

S&P 500 ~7,480  ·  Nasdaq ~30,800  ·  SPCX IPO $135  ·  Intel +10.3%  ·  Oracle -11.9%  ·  Brent $95  ·  BTC ~$62,650  ·  US 10Y 4.57%

Thursday 11 June 2026 is the most consequential single evening in US equity markets in years. SpaceX — the world's largest private company — prices its IPO at $135 per share tonight, with trading beginning on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX at approximately late morning to early afternoon ET on Friday 12 June. The offering is 4x oversubscribed with demand exceeding $250 billion against a planned $75 billion raise. At $135 per share, the implied valuation is $1.75 trillion — making this the largest IPO in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's 2019 debut and debuting SpaceX as roughly the seventh-largest US company by market cap, above Tesla. The pricing locks in tonight as the books close following today's dedicated retail investor event for approximately 1,500 participants.

The market environment into which SpaceX is launching is one of extraordinary complexity. Trump warned this morning he will hit Iran very hard tonight — the same night SpaceX prices — creating a direct geopolitical threat to the company itself: Iran has declared that all of Elon Musk's companies in West Asia, including SpaceX's Starlink satellite network and regional ground stations, are military targets. This is not a standard IPO backdrop. Simultaneously, the ECB delivered its first rate hike in nearly three years today at 2.25%, UK gilt yields hit 4.65%, and the US 10-year yield sits at 4.57% — the highest real rate environment for large-cap equity valuations in the current cycle....

Thursday, 11 June 2026  ·  London / Frankfurt

★  ECB HIKES 25bp to 2.25% · Iran War Escalates · Trump Threats New Strikes · Brent $95+ · UK Gilt 4.65%  ★

EUR/USD 1.1580  ·  GBP/USD 1.3380  ·  Brent $95.40  ·  UK Gilt 4.65%  ·  Bund 3.10%  ·  FTSE 10,395  ·  Shell 3,350p  ·  ETH $1,668  ·  XRP $1.135

The European session on 11 June 2026 is defined by the ECB delivering its first rate hike since September 2023 — 25 basis points to 2.25%. The hike itself was 99% priced; what is not priced is what Christine Lagarde says at her 13:45 BST press conference. A hawkish signal toward September pushes EUR/USD toward 1.17; a one-and-done pause fades the rally back toward 1.15. The ECB is hiking into a contracting Eurozone economy — Q1 GDP revised to -0.1% quarter-on-quarter — because Iran-war energy inflation at 3.2% CPI leaves it no alternative. This is stagflation-lite, and Lagarde's communication challenge today is to explain why the ECB is tightening even as growth disappoints.

Trump threatened new strikes on Iran overnight — his exact words: the US will hit Iran very hard tonight — following Iranian retaliatory attacks on US Air Force installations in Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain. Brent crude is above $95 on the threat and the Hormuz blockade. UK gilt yields have surged to 4.65%, the highest since the post-mini-budget panic of late 2022, as Iran-war energy inflation reprices both ECB and BoE rate paths simultaneously. Shell is up 3.5% on Brent and its Q1 earnings beat, providing the FTSE 100 with some energy-sector cushion. SpaceX's IPO pricing at $135 per share — four times oversubscribed with a 30% retail allocation — is the week's risk-appetite wildcard signal.

Thursday, 11 June 2026  ·  Tokyo / Sydney / Hong Kong

★  US CPI 4.2% YoY (3-yr high) but Core +0.2% MoM — Soft-Core Split  ·  BoJ Hike to 1.00% on 16 Jun Near-Certain  ·  Hormuz Blockaded  ★

USD/JPY 160.05  ·  AUD/USD 0.7004  ·  Nikkei 64,188  ·  Copper $6.25  ·  Corn $4.18  ·  LINK $7.78  ·  USDT $0.998  ·  BTC $62,650  ·  Gold $4,310

Asia opens caught between relief and fear. Overnight the US May CPI printed a hot-headline, soft-core split — 4.2% YoY, the fastest in nearly three years, but with core decelerating to just +0.2% month-on-month. Washington's fresh strikes on Iran and a blockaded Strait of Hormuz kept geopolitical risk live. Into that crosscurrent, the region is positioning for the single largest regional catalyst of 2026: a near-certain Bank of Japan hike to 1.00% on 16 June, the first time Japanese rates reach that level since 1995.

Japan's Nikkei 225 opened sharply lower near 63,330 before erasing the early drop to roughly 64,188 as the soft core-CPI read and record Korean semiconductor exports cushioned an early chip-led slide. USD/JPY is pinned near 160.05 — right on the line markets treat as an intervention trigger — even as Japanese wholesale inflation runs at a three-year-high 6.3%. Copper held firm near $6.25 on a structural supply deficit, corn slid to a four-month low on a bumper US crop, while gold kept a haven bid near $4,310 and crude stayed elevated on the Hormuz premium. Bitcoin sits near $62,650, having reclaimed the figure after briefly breaking below $60,000 for the first time since 2024, with the soft core-CPI print trimming losses but the looming BoJ hike — historically a trigger for sharp carry-unwind corrections — capping any bounce.

The binary that overhangs the week: whether the BoJ's move on...

After seven days of nonstop nightmare, after the cryptocurrency market lost nearly $400 billion in market capitalization, after $7 billion in liquidations and panic not seen since the collapse of FTX, Monday finally arrived. It did not bring relief, but at least it offered a brief pause.

Bitcoin rose by 1.5%, reaching $63,053.

Sounds insignificant? Perhaps. After an 18% decline in a single week, one and a half percent is just a drop in the ocean. But in the crypto world, where fortunes are made and lost in a matter of hours, any green candle feels like a gift from fate.

Yet the optimism is cautious, tinged with anxiety about both the past and the future. The fundamental problems that triggered the selloff have not disappeared. Institutional investors continue pulling money out of spot Bitcoin ETFs. The conflict between Iran and Israel has not been resolved—it has merely frozen under a fragile ceasefire that could collapse at any moment. And the Federal Reserve continues to rattle markets with the prospect of persistently high interest rates.

Still, Bitcoin is up 1.5%.

The cryptocurrency managed to hold above the psychologically important $60,000 level, which it briefly fell below on Friday. Altcoins are showing signs of life as well: Ether gained 3.4%, while Solana and XRP each rose 1.3%. Even memecoins, which typically suffer the most during panic-driven selloffs, posted modest gains.

The market is trying to find a bottom.

The only question is whether it has actually found one—or whether this is simply another pause on the way down.

The biggest story of the past month is not missiles in the Middle East or even Federal Reserve policy.

The biggest story is spot Bitcoin ETFs.

...

And you know what? It feels strange and exciting at the same time.

Hi, this is NorthRay.😎

Remember when I said I was looking into cryptocurrency but wasn’t in a hurry to get involved?

Well, I couldn’t resist.

Today, I have Bitcoin in my wallet. Not much—just $100 worth. But it’s there. Real Bitcoin. Mine.

I went through the entire process: registering on Binance, completing verification, funding my account, and making my first purchase. I felt nervous. I had doubts. There were moments when I thought, “What if I mess something up?”

But I did it.

Today I’ll tell you how it happened, what emotions I experienced, and what I learned along the way.

Honestly? I had been putting it off for a long time.

First, I’m still relatively new to trading. Forex, indices, and gold are already familiar territory for me. Crypto, on the other hand, felt like unexplored wilderness.

Second, it’s scary. Cryptocurrency can drop 20–30% in a single day. That’s no joke.

Then I asked myself: “When exactly will I stop being afraid? In a year? In five years?”

Fear doesn’t disappear on its own. You have to step through it.

I set aside an amount I could afford to lose: $100. For me, it’s not “last-money-in-the-bank” cash. It’s an experimental budget. If it disappears, it’ll be disappointing—but not catastrophic.

So I went for it.🥶

I explored several options. There are plenty out there: Coinbase, Kraken, Bybit, local exchanges, and others.

In the end, I chose Binance.

Why?

It’s the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, with high liquidity and millions of users.

It has a strong reputation and a long track record.

Security is a major focus.

The entry barrier is low—you can buy Bitcoin with...

On Sunday morning, the crypto community finally exhaled. Not loudly, not joyfully—the kind of exhale that comes after narrowly surviving a disaster. Bitcoin climbed back above $61,000, gaining 1.7% in just a few hours. On a normal day, that wouldn’t even make headlines. But this was no normal week. It was the most brutal week since the collapse of FTX and the imprisonment of Sam Bankman-Fried.

Let’s start with the numbers to grasp the scale of the damage. Bitcoin lost more than 17% over the week. Ethereum fell around 20%. The entire crypto market shed roughly $390 billion in market capitalization. Three hundred ninety billion dollars—more than the GDP of New Zealand or Portugal—vanished in just five days.

Friday was the real horror show. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $60,000. This wasn’t just another price level; it was a psychological wall. When Bitcoin broke above it, everyone was shouting, “To the moon! $100,000 next!” When it fell below, panic took over. If $60,000 couldn’t hold, where was the bottom? $50,000? $45,000? Nobody knew. Nobody wanted to find out. Everyone simply sold.

And now, on Sunday, traders stare at the chart in disbelief. Bitcoin is back around $61,800. It should be a reason to celebrate. Yet the optimism feels nervous, cautious. What if another crash comes tomorrow? What if this is just a dead-cat bounce?

Do you know what triggered the panic for many investors? Not macroeconomic news, not Federal Reserve comments, not even the stock market decline. It was news from a company called Strategy.

Formerly known as MicroStrategy, the company rebranded after Bitcoin effectively became its sole reason for existence.

Strategy spent decades building business intelligence software. Then founder Michael Saylor discovered Bitcoin and became obsessed....

Monday, 8 June 2026  ·  New York Open  

★  May NFP +172K (vs 85K)  ·  10Y at 2-Wk High 4.57%  ·  Dec Fed Hike ~70%  ·  Marvell S&P 500 Inclusion  ·  BTC Clears $63K  ★

S&P 500 7,436  ·  USD/CAD 1.3941  ·  USD/CHF 0.7960  ·  Gold $4,331.73  ·  Nat Gas $3.13  ·  SanDisk $1,615.97  ·  BTC $63,778  ·  DOGE $0.085  ·  10Y 4.57%

Wall Street opens the new week attempting to stabilise after one of the most violent stretches of 2026: Friday's session saw the Nasdaq plunge 4.18% — its worst day since the April 2025 tariff turmoil — as a Broadcom-led semiconductor rout wiped roughly a trillion dollars from equity markets, while a far-stronger-than-expected May jobs report sent Treasury yields surging and flipped the Fed conversation from cuts toward a possible December hike. Monday's tape is a tentative bounce: chip names are clawing back losses, the S&P 500 is up roughly 0.71% near 7,436, and Marvell's surprise S&P 500 inclusion is providing a sentiment spark — but the 10-year yield grinding to a two-week high of 4.57% and a fresh escalation between Israel and Iran over the weekend keep the rebound on a knife's edge.

The May employment report is the dominant macro driver of the entire week. Non-farm payrolls rose 172,000 versus a consensus near 85,000, with March and April figures revised higher, the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings up 0.3%. Economists flagged the upcoming FIFA World Cup — which kicks off in the US on June 11 — as one likely source of the outsized hiring surprise. The print reinforced the view that the labour market remains resilient at a moment when inflation is still running above the Fed's target, pushing market-implied...

Monday, 8 June 2026  ·  London / Frankfurt Open

★  ECB June 11 Hike 99% Priced  ·  Brent +5.8% Iran-Israel Strikes  ·  EUR/USD 6-Week Low 1.1509  ·  Phoenix Group -11.93%  ★

EUR/USD 1.1509  ·  GBP/USD 1.3312  ·  Brent $98.86  ·  Lead $1,995.50/t  ·  FTSE 100 10,332.2  ·  GLEN 587.9p  ·  ETH $1,660.02  ·  EU 10Y 3.04%

Monday's European session has opened under the shadow of three compounding forces: a near-certain ECB rate hike in 72 hours that markets have fully absorbed but whose aftermath remains deeply uncertain; a renewed flare-up in Middle East hostilities that has sent Brent crude surging above $96 a barrel; and the cascading aftershock of Friday's US semiconductor rout landing squarely on London's commodity-heavy blue-chip index. The result is a European market in acute bifurcation — energy stocks surging, miners retreating, and EUR/USD pinned at a six-week low as a rate-hiking ECB paradoxically cannot strengthen its own currency against a dollar hardened by blowout US payrolls.

The macro centrepiece of this week is Wednesday's ECB decision, where market pricing has reached 99% probability for a 25 basis-point hike to 2.25%. That is not the question anymore. The question is what ECB President Christine Lagarde signals about the path beyond Wednesday — whether this is a singular insurance hike or the opening move in a sustained tightening cycle. With Eurozone CPI at 3.2% in May, its highest in over two-and-a-half years, and services inflation accelerating, the hawks led by Isabel Schnabel have ammunition. But the macro context is treacherous: Eurozone Q1 GDP has been revised to a contraction — the first since late 2022 and the steepest since mid-2020 — leaving the ECB in a classic stagflationary bind. Inflation is too high to pause, growth is too weak to hike aggressively.

...