Indicies

Friday, 12 June 2026  ·  Capital Street FX Research Desk

EUR/USD 1.1579  ·  GBP/USD 1.3415  ·  DAX 24,668  ·  Silver $67.02  ·  Nat Gas $3.05  ·  BP 545p  ·  Bund 20Y 3.42%  ·  ETH $1,674  ·  LINK $7.89  ·  BTC $63,577

Europe opens Friday in full relief mode. Overnight President Trump called off fresh strikes on Iran and pointed to a breakthrough in talks to end the war — the firmest de-escalation signal in months — and with this week's two macro hurdles now cleared (the hot-but-soft-core US May CPI and the ECB's 25 basis-point hike to 2.25%), the continent is trading a clean risk-on rotation rather than a war-and-policy binary.

The pivot is sharp and broad. The Stoxx 600 is up about 1.7%, led by the most war-sensitive corners of the market: travel and leisure surged more than 4.9% — TUI +8.5%, Ryanair +7.5%, Lufthansa +6.9% — while European banks added 3.7% as the curve and the rate outlook firmed. The mirror image is energy: with crude sliding on the peace signal, oil majors and the wider energy complex are the session's clear laggards, dragging on the FTSE 100 and on names like BP even as the broad tape rips higher.

The ECB hiked to 2.25% on Thursday — its first move since 2023 — and turned hawkish, lifting 2026 headline inflation forecasts to 3.0% and pricing roughly a 50% chance of a follow-up in September, even as it trimmed growth to 0.8%. The euro sold the fact, with EUR/USD slipping toward 1.1579 near its lowest since early April, as a firm dollar and a draining haven bid outweighed the rate-gap story. Attention now jumps to next week's back-to-back central-bank events: the Fed on June 17 — Kevin Warsh's debut meeting as Chair, expected to hold at...

Friday, 12 June 2026  ·  Capital Street FX Research Desk

USD/JPY 160.29  ·  AUD/USD 0.7031  ·  Hang Seng 24,702.6  ·  Copper $6.40  ·  WTI $86.30  ·  BTC $63,427.90  ·  DOGE $0.0860  ·  LTC $42.00  ·  Gold $4,205

Asia wakes up to the sharpest sentiment reversal of the month. Late Thursday, President Trump posted that a peace agreement with Iran — one that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the three-month conflict — is largely negotiated and will be announced shortly, with a memorandum of understanding awaiting final sign-off from Washington and Tehran. The market reaction was immediate and violent: crude oil cratered roughly 4% to its lowest level since mid-May near $86.30, ripping the geopolitical war premium out of the energy complex overnight and triggering a broad risk-on rotation into equities, industrial metals, and crypto just as the region heads into the year's most consequential central-bank week.

The reaction across the region is a clean, one-directional risk rally — almost the mirror image of the past month's war-driven defensiveness. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is firmer near 24,702.6 as oil-import-sensitive Asian equities cheer the prospect of a durable de-escalation, while Japan's Nikkei extends its advance with exporters tracking a still-weak yen. USD/JPY is pinned at 160.29, effectively glued to the intervention line even as the broader risk tape turns constructive — the Iran de-escalation removes one inflationary leg (energy) just days before a Bank of Japan that was already leaning hawkish on a separate leg (wholesale prices at 6.3%). Copper has rebounded sharply off three-week lows toward $6.40 per pound as the growth-friendly headline outweighs the loss of its modest oil-linked cost-push support, while gold holds a haven bid near $4,205 — a sign the de-escalation is being read as real but not yet done.

The crypto...

Currency and Commodity Analysis:

US Dollar Index

The US dollar index closed up 0.09% at 100.04 on Wednesday, having fallen as low as 99.71 during the session. This was due to the US May Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 4.2% year-on-year, the largest increase in three years, but in line with market expectations and not significantly increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate hike this year. It fell to around 99.65 on Thursday. The lack of a widely feared acceleration in core inflation indicates that soaring energy prices have not yet transmitted to the Fed's key indicators. Short-term US Treasury traders have reduced their bets on a September rate hike but remain confident that a rate hike before the end of October is inevitable. The situation in the Middle East deteriorated further on Wednesday, with the conflict spreading outwards from the Persian Gulf region. As a result, risk aversion spread rapidly, with funds accelerating their inflow into traditional safe-haven assets such as the US dollar, providing strong support for the US dollar index near the 100 level. If the conflict escalates further, the demand for the US dollar as a safe haven may continue to strengthen.

The US dollar index has recently shown a fluctuating upward trend on the daily chart, with prices recovering steadily from a recent low of 97.62 and currently trading around 99.90, approaching the previous high of 100.64. In terms of moving averages, the price has stabilized above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, as well as the medium- and long-term moving averages, which are in a bullish alignment, providing support and maintaining the medium-term upward trend. Regarding indicators, the MACD DIFF line continues to run above the DEA line, with the red bars expanding, indicating continued bullish momentum; the RSI indicator has...

Thursday, 11 June 2026  ·  New York

★  SPCX $135/share · $1.75T Valuation · 4x Oversubscribed · Trades Jun 12  ·  Iran Threatens Starlink  ·  Trump Strikes Tonight  ★

S&P 500 ~7,480  ·  Nasdaq ~30,800  ·  SPCX IPO $135  ·  Intel +10.3%  ·  Oracle -11.9%  ·  Brent $95  ·  BTC ~$62,650  ·  US 10Y 4.57%

Thursday 11 June 2026 is the most consequential single evening in US equity markets in years. SpaceX — the world's largest private company — prices its IPO at $135 per share tonight, with trading beginning on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX at approximately late morning to early afternoon ET on Friday 12 June. The offering is 4x oversubscribed with demand exceeding $250 billion against a planned $75 billion raise. At $135 per share, the implied valuation is $1.75 trillion — making this the largest IPO in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's 2019 debut and debuting SpaceX as roughly the seventh-largest US company by market cap, above Tesla. The pricing locks in tonight as the books close following today's dedicated retail investor event for approximately 1,500 participants.

The market environment into which SpaceX is launching is one of extraordinary complexity. Trump warned this morning he will hit Iran very hard tonight — the same night SpaceX prices — creating a direct geopolitical threat to the company itself: Iran has declared that all of Elon Musk's companies in West Asia, including SpaceX's Starlink satellite network and regional ground stations, are military targets. This is not a standard IPO backdrop. Simultaneously, the ECB delivered its first rate hike in nearly three years today at 2.25%, UK gilt yields hit 4.65%, and the US 10-year yield sits at 4.57% — the highest real rate environment for large-cap equity valuations in the current cycle....

Thursday, 11 June 2026  ·  London / Frankfurt

★  ECB HIKES 25bp to 2.25% · Iran War Escalates · Trump Threats New Strikes · Brent $95+ · UK Gilt 4.65%  ★

EUR/USD 1.1580  ·  GBP/USD 1.3380  ·  Brent $95.40  ·  UK Gilt 4.65%  ·  Bund 3.10%  ·  FTSE 10,395  ·  Shell 3,350p  ·  ETH $1,668  ·  XRP $1.135

The European session on 11 June 2026 is defined by the ECB delivering its first rate hike since September 2023 — 25 basis points to 2.25%. The hike itself was 99% priced; what is not priced is what Christine Lagarde says at her 13:45 BST press conference. A hawkish signal toward September pushes EUR/USD toward 1.17; a one-and-done pause fades the rally back toward 1.15. The ECB is hiking into a contracting Eurozone economy — Q1 GDP revised to -0.1% quarter-on-quarter — because Iran-war energy inflation at 3.2% CPI leaves it no alternative. This is stagflation-lite, and Lagarde's communication challenge today is to explain why the ECB is tightening even as growth disappoints.

Trump threatened new strikes on Iran overnight — his exact words: the US will hit Iran very hard tonight — following Iranian retaliatory attacks on US Air Force installations in Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain. Brent crude is above $95 on the threat and the Hormuz blockade. UK gilt yields have surged to 4.65%, the highest since the post-mini-budget panic of late 2022, as Iran-war energy inflation reprices both ECB and BoE rate paths simultaneously. Shell is up 3.5% on Brent and its Q1 earnings beat, providing the FTSE 100 with some energy-sector cushion. SpaceX's IPO pricing at $135 per share — four times oversubscribed with a 30% retail allocation — is the week's risk-appetite wildcard signal.

Thursday, 11 June 2026  ·  Tokyo / Sydney / Hong Kong

★  US CPI 4.2% YoY (3-yr high) but Core +0.2% MoM — Soft-Core Split  ·  BoJ Hike to 1.00% on 16 Jun Near-Certain  ·  Hormuz Blockaded  ★

USD/JPY 160.05  ·  AUD/USD 0.7004  ·  Nikkei 64,188  ·  Copper $6.25  ·  Corn $4.18  ·  LINK $7.78  ·  USDT $0.998  ·  BTC $62,650  ·  Gold $4,310

Asia opens caught between relief and fear. Overnight the US May CPI printed a hot-headline, soft-core split — 4.2% YoY, the fastest in nearly three years, but with core decelerating to just +0.2% month-on-month. Washington's fresh strikes on Iran and a blockaded Strait of Hormuz kept geopolitical risk live. Into that crosscurrent, the region is positioning for the single largest regional catalyst of 2026: a near-certain Bank of Japan hike to 1.00% on 16 June, the first time Japanese rates reach that level since 1995.

Japan's Nikkei 225 opened sharply lower near 63,330 before erasing the early drop to roughly 64,188 as the soft core-CPI read and record Korean semiconductor exports cushioned an early chip-led slide. USD/JPY is pinned near 160.05 — right on the line markets treat as an intervention trigger — even as Japanese wholesale inflation runs at a three-year-high 6.3%. Copper held firm near $6.25 on a structural supply deficit, corn slid to a four-month low on a bumper US crop, while gold kept a haven bid near $4,310 and crude stayed elevated on the Hormuz premium. Bitcoin sits near $62,650, having reclaimed the figure after briefly breaking below $60,000 for the first time since 2024, with the soft core-CPI print trimming losses but the looming BoJ hike — historically a trigger for sharp carry-unwind corrections — capping any bounce.

The binary that overhangs the week: whether the BoJ's move on...

There was a time when owning shares meant holding a beautifully designed paper certificate in your hands, complete with watermarks, seals, signatures, and holograms. You could frame it and hang it on the wall, lock it in a safe, or pass it on to your grandchildren as a coming-of-age gift. There was something romantic about it—almost medieval—like owning land proven by a parchment deed.

But progress is relentless. The digitalization of the financial sector, which began in the 1990s, had by the 2020s almost completely eliminated physical share certificates. They were replaced by electronic records held in central depositories. Faster, cheaper, safer. They cannot be lost, stolen, or forged. They can be bought and sold with a single click.

Almost completely, however, does not mean entirely.

In Turkey, as in many other countries, there are still investors who hold physical share certificates of Turkiye Garanti Bankası. Some forgot to convert them into electronic form. Others never knew such a conversion was required. Some passed away, leaving heirs unaware that old certificates stored in a safe still have value. Others simply postponed dealing with the matter for years, assuming there was no urgency.

But the deadlines have now expired.

One of Turkey’s largest banks has announced that shareholders who still hold physical share certificates that were not dematerialized within the prescribed period must submit applications to the Investor Compensation Center no later than September 6, 2026.

This is not merely a formality. It is the last train leaving the station. Those who fail to act risk losing their rights to these shares permanently.

Let’s examine what happened, why the bank has taken this step, and what investors should do if they still possess these attractive—but legally ineffective without proper...

When you wake up in Taipei and open your brokerage app, you expect to see green numbers. Or at least yellow ones. But not red. On the morning of June 10, 2026, everything was red. Not just red—blood red. Taiwan’s benchmark stock index, the Taiwan Weighted Index, the island’s main economic barometer, plunged 3.48% in a single day. Without any obvious domestic trigger. Simply because the world around it seemed to be falling apart.

This was not just a decline. It was a stampede for the exits. Investors sold everything they could. Technology stocks—especially semiconductor companies—were hit first. Glass manufacturers were dumped as well. Energy companies were not spared. Three sectors that form the backbone of Taiwan’s economy came under pressure simultaneously.

Who was to blame? External factors, as is often the case. The conflict in the Middle East, driving up oil prices and fueling panic. Expectations of prolonged high interest rates from the Federal Reserve, which continue to suppress demand for risk assets. An overheating artificial intelligence sector that, after months of relentless gains, has finally entered a correction. And, of course, the ever-present geopolitical tensions surrounding Taiwan itself.

But let’s take it step by step.

Taiwan is semiconductors. Semiconductors are Taiwan. The island produces more than 60% of the world’s chips and over 90% of the most advanced ones. TSMC, UMC, MediaTek, ASE Group—names familiar to every investor on the planet. And when those names fall, the entire market follows.

On Wednesday, Taiwan’s technology sector suffered the steepest losses. Shares of WT Microelectronics, one of Asia’s largest distributors of electronic components, plunged 11.03%. A loss of NT$31 per share in a single session is enormous. Investors fled a company widely viewed as a barometer of electronics demand...

Currency and Commodity Analysis:

US Dollar Index

The US dollar index hovered around 100 on Wednesday, after a sharp intraday rebound in the previous session, as renewed hostilities in the Middle East clouded the prospects for a fragile ceasefire and a long-term peace agreement. The US launched a "self-defense strike" against Iran in response to the downing of a US helicopter, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi warned that the Iranian armed forces would respond to any attack or threat. Markets expressed concerns about inflation and the possibility of central bank interest rate hikes as regional conflict drove up energy prices. Investors are also awaiting the latest US inflation data for new signals on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, after stronger-than-expected jobs data last week strengthened expectations of a rate hike this year. Furthermore, the market widely expects the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates later this month.

The US dollar index is currently in a strong upward channel on the daily chart, having rebounded steadily from its May low of 97.62, recently rising to near the 100 mark and approaching the previous high of 100.64, indicating a clear bullish trend. The moving average system is in a bullish alignment, with the price above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. Support levels are at 99.59 (the 9-day moving average) and 99.00 (a psychological level), indicating solid support. Key resistance levels are at 100.21 (this week's high) and 100.64 (the high of March 31st). A break above these levels could open up further upside potential to the 101 level. In terms of indicators, the MACD DIFF line is above the DEA line, and the red bars are continuing to expand, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. The RSI is at 62.89, in...

Wednesday morning. You open the gold chart and can hardly believe what you see. Spot gold is trading at $4,180 per ounce, down 1.9% overnight. Four consecutive trading sessions in the red. Four. The last time that happened was last year, when the Federal Reserve was just beginning its aggressive rate-hiking cycle.

Gold has broken below the psychological $4,200 level and never looked back. It keeps falling, and nobody knows where the bottom is. U.S. gold futures are at $4,204.75, also down 1.9%, their lowest level since March 23. Three months ago, the world looked very different: the Middle East ceasefire was still holding, U.S. inflation was easing, and the Fed was signaling rate cuts. Those promises have now all but disappeared.

The same story that has plagued gold for weeks continues. The dollar is strong. Interest rates remain high. Inflation refuses to retreat. And the Middle East—which would normally support gold prices—has instead become another source of pressure.

Now a new and dangerous twist has emerged. On Tuesday, Washington reportedly launched fresh strikes against Iranian targets following the downing of a U.S. military helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz.

Think about what that means. The United States and Iran are no longer exchanging blows through intermediaries or proxy forces in Lebanon or Yemen. These are direct strikes. A helicopter has been shot down. Airstrikes are underway. The Strait of Hormuz—the artery through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil flows—is increasingly becoming a conflict zone.

And do you know how gold is reacting?

It’s falling.

Not rising—falling.

Because markets are looking three steps ahead. Strikes on Iran lead to higher oil prices (which rose another 1% on Wednesday),...