Dollar Index

Morning on the Commodities Front: Oil Starts the Day in Negative Territory

Oil futures opened Thursday’s Asian trading session with a small but telling decline. August-delivery WTI WTI ... crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by 0.11% to $79.69 per barrel. The drop may appear insignificant—just eleven hundredths of a percent—but in commodity markets, even such modest movements are rarely accidental. Behind every price tick lies a complex combination of calculations, expectations, and an invisible struggle between buyers and sellers. The Asian session often sets the tone for the rest of the trading week.

It is particularly interesting that the decline is taking place against the backdrop of a stronger dollar, even though the increase is only symbolic. The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.03% and held at 100.30. This may seem insignificant, but because oil is priced in U.S. dollars, even such a microscopic increase can trigger profit-taking. The mechanism is straightforward: when the dollar appreciates, oil becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially reducing demand. This time, however, the situation is far more complex than a simple currency correlation.

The technical picture once again reminds us that the market is in a state of tense equilibrium. Support is located at $70.77 per barrel, providing a relatively wide downside buffer and leaving room for manoeuvre. Resistance is significantly higher at $81.27. The price is currently hovering almost midway between these two levels, although it remains closer to the upper boundary. This is an important signal: sellers are not yet prepared to send oil into a deep decline, but buyers are no longer showing the same level of aggression as before.

Brent and WTI: Twin Brothers with Different Personalities

September-delivery Brent crude, traded on ICE, also moved into negative territory, falling slightly more sharply by 0.21% to...

Introduction: The End of Moderate Optimism

Wednesday marked a reversal for Taiwan’s stock market after two days of moderate gains. The Taiwan Weighted Index fell by 1.42%, reflecting negative sentiment across the optoelectronics and machinery sectors. This was the market’s most significant decline in several days and signaled a return of caution among investors.

Against the backdrop of global uncertainty caused by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve, investors chose to lock in profits and reduce their exposure to risk. However, as is often the case in Taiwan’s stock market, several companies still delivered impressive gains despite the broader decline.

Shares of Ene Technology Inc, Mospec Semiconductor Corp, and Hocheng Corp surged by approximately 10%, reaching their maximum daily gains. Meanwhile, Excel Cell Electronic Co Ltd, Holy Stone Enterprise Co Ltd, and Yeong Guan Energy Technology Group Co Ltd were among the biggest decliners, with the latter falling to a new all-time low.

In this article, we will examine the day’s key developments, assess the impact of external factors, and consider where Taiwan’s stock market may be heading in the coming days.

Top Gainers: Who Benefited in a Falling Market

Ene Technology Inc: Up 9.99%

Shares of Ene Technology Inc were among the most notable exceptions during the broader market decline. The stock rose by 9.99% to TWD 39.65, reaching the maximum permitted daily gain. This impressive increase indicates strong investor interest in the company.

Ene Technology Inc specializes in the production of electronic components. The company may have benefited from continued strength in certain areas of the electronics industry despite the overall decline in the index.

Mospec Semiconductor Corp: Up 9.96%

Shares of Mospec Semiconductor Corp increased by 9.96% to TWD 75.10. This was also close to the maximum gain the stock...

Introduction: The Third Wave of Growth

Wednesday morning brought fresh momentum to the oil market. August-delivery WTI crude oil futures rose by 1.08%, reaching $80.20 per barrel. Brent crude, meanwhile, gained 1.39% and settled at $85.91 per barrel. This move continues the rally that began last week and accelerated following the reinstatement of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

What is driving the market now? Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a weaker US dollar, and technical factors are all working in favor of the bulls. WTI ... crude has broken through the psychologically important level of $80 per barrel, opening the door to new potential targets.

In this article, we will examine the reasons behind the current rise, the key technical levels, and the prospects for the oil market over the coming days.

Geopolitical Factors: The Strait of Hormuz Blockade Continues to Put Pressure on the Market

The Reinstatement of the Blockade and Rising Oil Prices

The reinstatement of the Strait of Hormuz blockade remains the main geopolitical factor supporting oil prices. The United States announced the restoration of its naval blockade of Iran and the introduction of a transit fee for vessels passing through the strait, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions.

Iran has not remained on the sidelines. Tehran has launched drone strikes against US facilities and targeted vessels in the region with cruise missiles. The escalation is continuing, and markets are pricing in the risk of serious supply disruptions.

The Role of the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow maritime corridor through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil passes. Any threat to this region causes anxiety in the markets and pushes prices higher.

Even without actual supply disruptions, the threat of them creates speculative momentum. Traders buy oil to hedge against...

Introduction: The First Decline in Prices in Six Years

Tuesday became a day that could go down in the history of the US economy. Consumer prices in the United States declined in June for the first time in six years. The core inflation measure remained almost unchanged, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The Consumer Price Index fell by 0.4% month over month, while analysts had expected a decline of only 0.1%. Annual inflation stood at 3.5%, compared with the forecast of 3.8%.

The dollar reacted immediately. The US Dollar Index ( USD ... ) fell by 0.52% to 100.76, reaching an intraday low of 100.60. Markets began revising their interest-rate expectations and pricing in a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy.

Against this backdrop, however, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish statement, saying that the central bank’s committee was “intolerant” of persistently high inflation and remained determined to curb price growth, which had been elevated for five years.

This contradiction between the economic data and the Fed’s rhetoric creates considerable uncertainty. In this article, we will examine every aspect of the inflation report, its impact on the dollar, and the outlook for monetary policy.

Inflation Data: Figures That Surprised the Market

CPI Declines by 0.4%

The Consumer Price Index declined by 0.4% month over month in June, while analysts had expected a fall of only 0.1%. This was the first decrease in six years, making the report a historic event.

The decline in prices was driven by several factors, including lower energy prices, reduced transportation service costs, and a degree of easing in price pressures across other categories.

Annual Inflation Falls Below Forecasts

On an annual basis, inflation stood at 3.5%, compared with the forecast of 3.8% and the previous reading of 4.2%. This represents...

Gold ended the week deep in the red on Friday. It marked the fourth consecutive losing session — a stretch the precious metals market has not seen in quite some time. Spot prices slipped another 0.7% and hovered near $4,620 per ounce in early trading. Futures performed even worse, plunging 1.3% to around $4,624. Looking at the week as a whole, the picture is grim for the bulls: gold lost roughly 2% over five trading days.

For an asset traditionally viewed as a safe haven, this behavior looks unusual. But that very unusualness is the story. Gold is currently trapped between two grinding forces: a strengthening U.S. dollar on one side and shifting expectations around Federal Reserve interest rates on the other. As long as those forces continue turning, the metal keeps sliding lower despite the geopolitical fears that would normally send it soaring.

The Dollar Flexes Its Muscles

The U.S. Dollar Index gained another 0.3% during Asian trading on Friday, climbing to a two-week high. For the week, the greenback was on track to rise more than 1% — a sharp reversal after months of speculation that the dollar was losing its dominance amid budget concerns and political instability in the United States.

But economic data released throughout the week shattered those bearish narratives. One report after another exceeded analyst expectations. Producer prices in April posted their strongest annual increase in four years. Four years is a long time in economic terms — enough for supply chains, consumer behavior, and entire market structures to change dramatically. Consumer inflation also came in hotter than expected, while retail sales painted a picture of an American consumer who continues spending despite expensive energy and broad uncertainty.

Under different circumstances, this combination of data might have fueled a rally in equities and perhaps...