Chair Kevin

Introduction: A Pullback Following Weak Inflation Data

Wednesday began with another round of correction for gold. August gold futures fell by 0.90% to $4,032.87 per troy ounce. Silver also declined by 0.81% to $58.63. This is happening against the backdrop of a weaker US dollar, which fell by 0.09% to 100.63 points.

What is happening? Why is gold falling while the dollar is weakening? A weaker dollar usually supports gold prices, but today this correlation has broken down. The reason lies in US inflation data, which came in below expectations, and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who maintained a hawkish stance.

Investors are reassessing their positions. Lower inflation reduces demand for gold as protection against currency depreciation, while the Fed’s tough rhetoric creates expectations that interest rates will remain high. In this article, we will examine all the factors affecting gold, assess the key technical levels, and try to determine where the metal may move in the coming days.

Inflation Data: Easing Pressure

A Weak CPI Report

US inflation data for June came in below expectations. The Consumer Price Index fell by 0.4% month over month, while annual inflation stood at 3.5%, compared with the projected 3.8%. Core CPI increased by 2.6%, also below forecasts.

This decline in inflation reduces demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Investors are becoming less concerned about currency depreciation, weakening one of the key factors that has supported gold prices.

The Dollar’s Reaction

The US dollar weakened by 0.5% following the release of the data, but this did not help gold maintain its position. A weaker dollar usually supports gold, but today this effect was outweighed by other factors.

Falling inflation and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve created pressure on the metal that proved stronger than the currency factor.

Impact on...

Introduction: The First Decline in Prices in Six Years

Tuesday became a day that could go down in the history of the US economy. Consumer prices in the United States declined in June for the first time in six years. The core inflation measure remained almost unchanged, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The Consumer Price Index fell by 0.4% month over month, while analysts had expected a decline of only 0.1%. Annual inflation stood at 3.5%, compared with the forecast of 3.8%.

The dollar reacted immediately. The US Dollar Index ( USD ... ) fell by 0.52% to 100.76, reaching an intraday low of 100.60. Markets began revising their interest-rate expectations and pricing in a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy.

Against this backdrop, however, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish statement, saying that the central bank’s committee was “intolerant” of persistently high inflation and remained determined to curb price growth, which had been elevated for five years.

This contradiction between the economic data and the Fed’s rhetoric creates considerable uncertainty. In this article, we will examine every aspect of the inflation report, its impact on the dollar, and the outlook for monetary policy.

Inflation Data: Figures That Surprised the Market

CPI Declines by 0.4%

The Consumer Price Index declined by 0.4% month over month in June, while analysts had expected a fall of only 0.1%. This was the first decrease in six years, making the report a historic event.

The decline in prices was driven by several factors, including lower energy prices, reduced transportation service costs, and a degree of easing in price pressures across other categories.

Annual Inflation Falls Below Forecasts

On an annual basis, inflation stood at 3.5%, compared with the forecast of 3.8% and the previous reading of 4.2%. This represents...