Gold Under Siege: How New Bombings in Iran Have Cornered the Metal
Thursday’s Asian trading session brought another wave of pain for gold. Spot prices slipped 0.4% to $4,438 per ounce, while futures followed, falling to $4,467. Silver plunged nearly 1%, and platinum lost 0.7%. Precious metals are under pressure once again, and the culprit is an old familiar force — war. Not the war itself, but its economic consequences, which the market has learned to price in with ruthless precision. New U.S. strikes on Iran — the second this week — once again triggered the chain reaction: “oil rises → inflation rises → interest rates rise → gold falls.” And as long as that chain remains intact, gold will stay trapped.
Ten Days in a Box: Gold Cannot Break the WallsSince mid-May, spot gold has been stuck in a range between $4,400 and $4,600 per ounce. Ten days. For an asset capable of moving hundreds of dollars in a single session, that is an eternity. Gold keeps crashing into invisible walls like a fly against glass, unable to break either higher or lower.
The reason for this paralysis is both simple and painful. The market is being torn between two opposing forces. On one side, geopolitical uncertainty — war, strikes on Iran, the blocked Strait of Hormuz — should push gold higher as a safe-haven asset. On the other side, the inflationary consequences of that same war — expensive oil, rising prices, and the threat of higher rates — should push gold lower, because high interest rates make holding a non-yielding metal unattractive.
On Thursday, the second force prevailed. New U.S. strikes on Iranian targets pushed oil prices roughly 2% higher. Oil climbed again, and inflation expectations climbed with it. Rising inflation expectations strengthen the belief that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates — and may even raise them...