DAX and STOXX 600 Hit Record Highs as Dollar Slides Toward Worst Week Since April, Euro and Pound Rally, Gold Nears $4,190, Ethereum Surges 7%

DXY ~100.8 — on track for biggest weekly drop since early April. EUR/USD ~1.1443 two-week high. GBP/USD ~1.3365 best week in ~3 months. DAX 40 record ~25,747. STOXX 600 record ~651.5. Gold ~$4,185-$4,190. Copper ~$6.18/lb. ETH +7% to ~$1,717. Yen intervention watch live. US markets closed for Independence Day.

YEN INTERVENTION WATCH LIVE: FM Katayama issued fresh verbal warning Friday after yen touched 40-year low near 162.8 Thursday. Holiday-thinned session = elevated volatility risk.

LEVEL

SESSION STORY

EUR/USD

~1.1443

Two-week high. Up ~0.6% on week. Dollar weakness dominates over softer Eurozone CPI (headline 2.8%, core 2.4%).

GBP/USD

~1.3365

Best week in ~3 months (+1.2%). Bailey’s Sintra remarks did little to slow the advance. Pure dollar-weakness story.

Gold XAU

~$4,185-$4,190

Extending advance. +1.3% on session. Dollar slide + reduced hike odds. WGC structural floor intact.

Copper

~$6.18/lb

+1.1-1.3% on session. Softer dollar + Goldman Sachs constructive demand commentary (EV, renewables, AI).

DAX 40

~25,747

Fresh all-time high. +0.65-0.9% on session. Siemens biggest boost (Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade). Defence names add.

STOXX 600

~651.5

Own record high. Best weekly rise since mid-May. Defence stocks +0.8% on Russia’s deadliest Ukraine strike this year.

Ethereum ETH

~$1,717

+7%. Reclaims $1,700 handle. Sharp reversal after weeks of underperformance vs BTC.

Litecoin LTC

~$42.26

+~2%. Riding broader risk-on wave.

Natural Gas

~$3.25

Testing Fibonacci resistance inside descending channel. $3.245-$3.285 key band. Neutral-to-bearish structure.

Germany 20Y Bund

~3.30%

Easing from near two-week high as US Treasury yields pull back on reduced Fed-hike expectations.

Thursday’s 57,000 NFP miss against a 115,000 consensus, combined with downward revisions to April and May payrolls, has done what five straight Nasdaq losing sessions and four straight gold weekly declines could not: it has cleanly broken the dollar’s grip on European markets. The DXY has slipped to around 100.8, on track for its biggest weekly drop since early April. The dollar retreat is lifting everything simultaneously: EUR/USD to a two-week high at 1.1443, GBP/USD toward its best weekly performance in close to three months at 1.3365, the DAX to a fresh all-time high near 25,747, gold to $4,185 to $4,190, copper to $6.18, and Ethereum up roughly 7% to reclaim $1,700. The session is defined by the transmission of dollar weakness into European risk assets in a holiday-thinned market with no US counterweight to absorb the move.

The EUR/USD advance is a dollar-weakness story rather than an ECB strength story. Earlier in the week, Eurozone CPI came in softer than expected — headline easing to 2.8% and core slowing to 2.4% in June, both below expectations. ECB President Lagarde struck a more balanced tone at the Sintra Forum, noting that risks to euro-area growth and inflation have become more balanced, which initially weighed on the single currency. None of that has mattered on Friday. The dollar’s post-payrolls retreat has overridden the ECB’s softer posture and the weaker inflation data, carrying EUR/USD to 1.1443 from levels closer to 1.13 at the start of the week.

GBP/USD at 1.3365 is the same story from the sterling side. Governor Bailey’s Sintra remarks did little to slow the pound’s advance. Sterling has cleared its recent range highs even as UK-specific data remains light, confirming that this is a broad-dollar trade rather than a pound-specific catalyst. The BoE’s 7-2 dovish vote composition from the June meeting — two members voting for cuts — had been a structural GBP headwind that the dollar’s retreat has completely overwhelmed.

DAX 40 Record at 25,747 and STOXX 600 at 651.5

The DAX 40’s fresh all-time high near 25,747 is built on two foundations: the softer-dollar impulse lifting European risk assets broadly, and the specific Siemens catalyst from Kepler Cheuvreux’s upgrade, which made Siemens the single biggest individual boost to the index. The STOXX 600 notching its own record high near 651.5 — on track for its biggest weekly rise since mid-May — adds a second layer to the story: defence stocks are contributing approximately 0.8% to the pan-European gain following Russia’s deadliest strike on Ukraine this year, signalling that defence-spending expectations for European governments are rising again.

Germany’s 20-year Bund yield easing to approximately 3.30% from a near two-week high reflects the same dynamic as the broader pullback in US Treasury yields: reduced Fed-hike probability after the NFP miss is lowering yields globally, and European rates are following in a lighter-liquidity Friday session with no US participants to anchor the market.

Copper: Goldman Sachs Constructive Commentary

Copper at $6.18 per pound, up 1.1 to 1.3% on the session, benefits from the softer dollar and from Goldman Sachs commentary suggesting that the broader Middle East-linked disruption could ultimately prove supportive for longer-run industrial-metals demand tied to electric vehicles, renewable energy, and AI-driven electricity demand. The metal is up more than 23% from a year ago even after a roughly 5% pullback over the past month. Resistance is at $6.27 (near-term) and $6.37 (target); support at $6.07 (buy-dip level) and $5.97 (stop).

Natural Gas at $3.25: Descending Channel

Natural gas at $3.25 is consolidating within a descending channel that has capped price action since late June, testing a cluster of Fibonacci retracement levels. The $3.245 to $3.285 zone is the key band. The preferred setup per the article is neutral-to-bearish: sell rallies toward $3.29, stop $3.35, target $3.04. The descending channel is the dominant technical structure until broken.

Ethereum Surges 7%: Reclaims $1,700

Ethereum’s roughly 7% surge to reclaim the $1,700 handle is described in the article as a sharp reversal after weeks of relative underperformance against Bitcoin. The move is riding the broader risk-on wave from the payrolls miss and dollar retreat rather than an ETH-specific catalyst. The $1,700 reclaim is the near-term psychological level; resistance at $1,750 to $1,800; support at $1,640 (buy-dip zone) and $1,560 (stop). Litecoin has advanced approximately 2% to $42.26 on the same risk-on impulse.

USD/JPY: Intervention Watch Into a Holiday-Thinned Weekend

Japan’s Finance Ministry issued a fresh verbal warning on Friday after the yen touched a fresh 40-year low near 162.8 per dollar on Thursday before staging a sharp reversal. Traders remain alert to the possibility of direct intervention during this holiday-thinned window with US markets closed. The article notes this as an ongoing focal point. Thin liquidity with no US session means any MoF move during Friday’s European or Asian window would face less counter-positioning than a normal trading day.

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