Forex

Thursday brought a dose of reality to the currency market. The pound sterling, which had recently been trying to find footing for a recovery, came under pressure once again. GBP/USD slipped 0.16% to 1.3405. The move itself was modest, but the direction speaks volumes. Sterling is losing what little support it still had and is reverting to a state of near-total dependence on the dollar narrative. Several factors converged at once: geopolitical tensions flared up again, the dollar reclaimed its safe-haven crown, and Britain’s domestic political story—which had provided at least some independent driver for the pound—has largely run out of steam.

The night between Wednesday and Thursday shattered the fragile balance markets had been trying to build around negotiations with Iran. U.S. forces struck a military facility near Bandar Abbas, the strategically important port city in southern Iran located at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. This was not just another airstrike. It targeted the heart of Iran’s logistical infrastructure and a location that oversees access to one of the world’s most critical oil arteries.

Iran’s response was swift. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched an attack on a U.S. airbase, describing it as a “serious warning.” This was no longer a defensive maneuver or a limited operation that could be framed as deterrence. It marked a direct escalation, with both sides exchanging blows and each new strike raising the stakes. The ceasefire that diplomats had been discussing only recently now appears little more than a fiction.

Donald Trump added to the picture by ruling out sanctions relief or the unfreezing of Iranian assets. That erased the cautious optimism seen on Wednesday and triggered broad-based demand for the dollar. Francesco Pesole of ING captured the mood succinctly: the market...

Hi, this is NorthRay.💥

For a long time, I thought: “Technical analysis is enough. The chart reflects everything. Why should I bother with reports, GDP figures, and interest rates?”

I drew support and resistance levels, watched the stochastic oscillator, and opened trades.

And often, technical analysis would tell me “buy.” The price would move up at first, then suddenly reverse and crash lower. No apparent reason. No warning.

I’d sit there thinking:

“What went wrong? The level was solid...”

Then I started reading the news.

It turned out that inflation data had been released in the U.S. that day. Or the Federal Reserve Chair had made comments about interest rates. Or Europe was dealing with a crisis.

My technical analysis wasn’t wrong. It simply didn’t know what the market already knew.

That’s when I realized: the chart is the result. The cause lies in fundamentals.

So I started studying fundamental analysis.💬

If technical analysis focuses on the chart itself (candlesticks, levels, indicators), fundamental analysis focuses on what’s behind the chart.

A country's economy. Central bank actions. Politics. Natural disasters. Wars. Elections.

Everything that can affect the supply and demand of currencies, stocks, or commodities.

A simple example:

Imagine you want to buy an apartment in a city.

Technical analysis looks at housing prices over the past year and says:

"Prices usually rise in spring and fall in autumn. It's spring now, so prices will probably go up."

Fundamental analysis looks at the city itself:

Is a new factory being built? (More people move in → prices rise.)

Is a major employer shutting down? (People move away → prices fall.)

Are mortgage rates being lowered? (Housing becomes more affordable → prices rise.)

Technical analysis is about history and recurring patterns.

Fundamental analysis is about...

Thursday’s Asian trading session opened with news that, while increasingly familiar in recent weeks, remains deeply unsettling. U.S. armed forces launched another round of strikes on targets in southern Iran — the second such operation in a week. Markets reacted instantly and predictably: a rush into the dollar. The U.S. dollar index edged higher, Asian currencies fell into negative territory, and oil prices surged. All of this is unfolding on the very day the Federal Reserve is set to release its preferred inflation gauge — the PCE index. Thursday is shaping up to be a volatile one.

Whenever the U.S. strikes Iranian targets, currency markets tend to follow the same script. The dollar rises, while nearly every other currency weakens. This has little to do with patriotism or confidence in American military power. It is simply cold financial logic.

Conflict involving Iran threatens oil supplies. Disruptions in oil supplies drive energy prices higher. Rising energy costs fuel inflation. Higher inflation, in turn, forces the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated — or even raise them further. And high interest rates make the dollar more attractive to investors searching for yield.

But on Thursday, another element was added to this familiar chain reaction. President Trump personally rejected recent reports suggesting Iran was prepared to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within thirty days. That statement dealt a blow to the fragile optimism that had supported markets over the past few days. Investors who only yesterday hoped for a near-term peace agreement are now being forced to admit that the conflict may drag on. And a prolonged conflict means prolonged inflation. Prolonged inflation means rates staying higher for longer.

Markets have largely abandoned hopes for a quick resolution, and safe-haven capital is pouring...

Wednesday, 6 PM. For most people, it’s the hour when attention shifts from work to evening plans. But for currency traders, this moment becomes a point of maximum gravity. Options contracts worth billions of dollars are expiring, and these expiries can pull spot exchange rates toward specific levels with a force that cannot be ignored. Let’s walk through the key currency pairs and see where the traps are set today.

The main magnet for the euro today sits at 1.1650. Options worth a massive €868 million expire at this strike. The spot rate is currently 1.1645 — just five pips away. This means that in the remaining hours before expiry, market makers will do everything possible to keep the pair near this level.

The mechanics are simple: when price approaches a large strike, option holders aggressively hedge their positions, creating artificial gravity. The pair may fluctuate within a narrow range of a few pips around 1.1650, but sharp moves are unlikely.

An additional anchor lies at 1.1640, where €138 million in options expire. This is closer to the current spot price but smaller in size. Most likely, these options will expire without major market impact, though they create extra support just below current levels. If price unexpectedly drops toward 1.1640, buyers may step in and push it back toward the primary magnet zone.

The largest single options pool today expires in USD/CAD. At the 1.3805 strike, $328 million is concentrated. This is not just a large expiry — it’s a true gravitational anomaly.

The spot rate is 1.3834, slightly above the strike. That suggests the pair could be pulled lower toward 1.3805, as market makers sell USD against CAD to minimize payouts.

Another level sits at 1.4095 with $128...

Hi, this is NorthRay.🎉

Remember when I told you about the time I opened a trade, and an hour later the price suddenly shot in the opposite direction — and I had no idea why?

I sat there staring at the chart thinking:

“What just happened? Did someone drop a nuclear bomb? Has the market gone insane?”

Then I checked the news.

Turns out that exact same hour, the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) said a couple of sentences about interest rates.
The market reacted.
My trade died.

That was the first time I heard about the economic calendar.

And I realized: opening trades blindly without knowing what news is coming out today is like walking through a minefield blindfolded.🧐

An economic calendar is a schedule of all major economic events around the world.

When the U.S. unemployment report comes out.
When the European Central Bank announces interest rates.
When Germany publishes industrial data.
When world leaders make important agreements.

All of it is in the calendar.

Simple analogy:

Imagine you want to cross the street. You look at the traffic light.
Green — you walk.
Red — you stop.

The economic calendar is your traffic light. It tells you:

“Be careful now, an important report is coming out.”
Or:
“The market is calm right now, it’s okay to trade.”

Without a calendar, you’re crossing the street with your eyes closed.
Maybe you’ll get lucky. Maybe not.🧠

The market is not just a chart. It’s people. Millions of traders around the world.

They read the news.
And they make decisions.

Good economic news → people buy the country’s currency → price goes up.

Bad news → people...

Tuesday, 6:00 PM Moscow time. For most people, it’s just another hour when the workday winds down and thoughts shift toward home. But for FX traders, this moment marks a point of maximum tension. At the New York cut, option contracts worth billions of dollars across major currency pairs will expire. And these expiries are not just accounting entries. They are a force capable of pulling spot exchange rates toward specific levels in the final hours before expiration — like a magnet drawing in iron filings. Let’s go through the major pairs and see where the traps are set.

Two significant option clusters are expiring in euro-dollar. The first is €140 million at the 1.1640 strike. The second is €122 million at 1.1625. At the time the data was recorded, the spot rate stood at 1.1628 — right between the two expiry levels.

This is no coincidence. It’s a classic situation where option barriers create an invisible corridor in which price can remain trapped until the cut.

The mechanics are straightforward. Large option holders — banks and market makers — hedge their exposure. If they sold options at 1.1640, then as price approaches that level they are likely to sell euros to protect themselves from potential losses. Those flows create artificial resistance. The same mechanism works in reverse at 1.1625: as price falls toward that strike, market makers buy euros, creating artificial support.

As a result, the exchange rate becomes squeezed in a vice, and breaking these levels ahead of expiry becomes extremely difficult unless some overwhelming news shock hits the market.

Dollar-yen looks even more intriguing. Options worth $231 million expire at the 159.50 strike. Another $240 million sits at 159.25. The spot rate is currently 159.26...

Wednesday on the currency markets was defined by anticipation. The dollar stood still, like a predator before the leap, making no sharp moves either upward or downward. The U.S. dollar index and its futures were virtually unchanged during Asian trading, stabilizing after a brief surge earlier in the week.

But this stillness is deceptive. Beneath it lies enormous tension — traders are frozen ahead of two events capable of turning the market upside down. One is geopolitical, the other macroeconomic. And both sit at a point of maximum uncertainty.

The main factor preventing the dollar from falling — and at the same time keeping it from rallying — is Iran.

Negotiations between the United States and Iran over de-escalating the conflict are continuing, but no one seems to fully understand their real condition. According to media reports, indirect contacts are still ongoing even after U.S. forces struck targets in southern Iran.

It is a strange, almost surreal picture: bombs are falling while diplomats continue talking. War and peace exist simultaneously, in parallel realities.

As recently as the weekend, U.S. officials sounded optimistic. Trump spoke of a memorandum that was “largely agreed upon.” Markets celebrated, oil prices fell, and the dollar weakened.

But this week Washington’s tone has become more restrained. The strikes on Iranian facilities were presented as defensive, yet the very fact they occurred suggests the negotiating process is stalling. The sides remain stuck on key issues — the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium, the timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and security guarantees.

Until those issues are resolved, the dollar will continue to receive support as a safe-haven asset.

The mechanics here are simple and ruthless. As long as there is a risk of escalation, there is a risk of disruptions...

Hi, this is NorthRay.😎

For a long time, I looked at charts like abstract art.

Red candles, green candles, lines crawling somewhere across the screen. I understood where the price moved, but I didn’t understand WHY it moved there or WHERE it might go next.

I traded randomly. I clicked Buy because “I feel like it’ll go up.” I clicked Sell because “it seems too high.”

That worked about half the time. Because honestly, both I and my cat could flip a coin.

And then I told myself: “Enough guessing. Time to understand.”

That’s when I started learning technical analysis.

Honestly? I thought it was something complicated and unnecessary.

“Why do I need all these lines and patterns? The market is chaotic. News and crowd emotions decide everything.”

I was wrong.

Yes, news matters. Yes, emotions drive the crowd. But all of that is REFLECTED on the chart. Price doesn’t come out of nowhere. It’s created by the actions of thousands of traders.

And those actions have patterns.

Technical analysis isn’t magic. It’s simply an attempt to find repeating patterns on a chart and use them to make forecasts.

In simple terms:

If every time the price touches a certain level it bounces upward, that’s not a coincidence. It means buy orders are sitting there.

Technical analysis helps identify those levels.🔥

I didn’t try to learn everything at once. I have no goal of becoming a professor.

I decided to master three basic things that, according to experienced traders, cover 80% of a beginner’s needs.

My minimum program:

Support and resistance levels

Trend lines

One confirmation indicator (for me it’s the Stochastic oscillator, which I already wrote about)

That’s it....

Monday ended with explosions. By Tuesday, markets woke up in a different world — one where hopes for imminent peace, which had lifted Asian stocks and currencies just a day earlier, were shattered by the harsh reality of military force. The United States carried out strikes on targets in southern Iran. Although details remain scarce and official statements cautious, that alone was enough for the markets. The dollar resumed its climb. Oil surged alongside it. Asian currencies, which had celebrated gains on Monday morning, came under pressure by Tuesday. The geopolitical pendulum swung back — and this time, those who had rushed to believe in peace were the ones falling.

Reports of new U.S. strikes on Iranian facilities emerged on Monday. The targets were located in the south of the country — a region strategically important both for Iran’s military infrastructure and for control over the Persian Gulf coastline. Details of the operation remain classified, but the mere resumption of military action after several days of intense negotiations suggests either that diplomacy has hit a dead end or that talks are being used as cover for continued military pressure.

Iranian officials reacted immediately. Their warning was blunt and unequivocal: any attacks on the country’s military facilities would trigger retaliation. This was not rhetoric — it was a promise of escalation. Markets interpreted it exactly that way: as a signal that the conflict is far from over and that the risks of a new spiral of violence are growing by the hour.

The contrast with the mood over the weekend could not be sharper. As recently as Saturday and Sunday, Trump had spoken about a memorandum that was “mostly agreed upon,” about reopening shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz,...

Hi, this is NorthRay.

For a long time, I looked at a clean chart. Just candles. No lines. No colorful bands. Pure simplicity.

I used to think: “Why would I need indicators? I can already see the market.”

Then I realized I wasn’t seeing everything.

Trader friends in chat rooms would say things like: “Stochastic is overbought,” “RSI shows divergence,” “The moving average got broken.”

I nodded and pretended to understand, but inside I was thinking: “What are you even talking about?”

So I decided to figure it out.🔎

An indicator is a mathematical formula that draws an extra line (or histogram, or zones) on the chart to help you make decisions.

It does not predict the future. Remember that once and for all.

It simply processes past price data and displays it in a convenient form.

Here’s a simple analogy:

You look at the thermometer outside your window. It says -10°C. You think: “It’s cold outside, I should wear a jacket.”

The thermometer doesn’t predict tomorrow’s weather. It just tells you what’s happening now. The decision is yours.

An indicator is basically a thermometer for the chart. It says: “The market is overheated right now,” or “The market is too cold right now.” What you do with that information is up to you.💬

I asked myself that question too. Here’s what I came up with.

Three reasons:

When I only look at candles, my eyes can deceive me. One candle looks huge and scary. It feels like the whole market is about to collapse.

An indicator gives an objective number. For example: “Stochastic shows 85 — this is an overbought zone. Statistically, price is more likely to...