Traders

Hi, this is NorthRay.💥

For a long time, I thought: “Technical analysis is enough. The chart reflects everything. Why should I bother with reports, GDP figures, and interest rates?”

I drew support and resistance levels, watched the stochastic oscillator, and opened trades.

And often, technical analysis would tell me “buy.” The price would move up at first, then suddenly reverse and crash lower. No apparent reason. No warning.

I’d sit there thinking:

“What went wrong? The level was solid...”

Then I started reading the news.

It turned out that inflation data had been released in the U.S. that day. Or the Federal Reserve Chair had made comments about interest rates. Or Europe was dealing with a crisis.

My technical analysis wasn’t wrong. It simply didn’t know what the market already knew.

That’s when I realized: the chart is the result. The cause lies in fundamentals.

So I started studying fundamental analysis.💬

If technical analysis focuses on the chart itself (candlesticks, levels, indicators), fundamental analysis focuses on what’s behind the chart.

A country's economy. Central bank actions. Politics. Natural disasters. Wars. Elections.

Everything that can affect the supply and demand of currencies, stocks, or commodities.

A simple example:

Imagine you want to buy an apartment in a city.

Technical analysis looks at housing prices over the past year and says:

"Prices usually rise in spring and fall in autumn. It's spring now, so prices will probably go up."

Fundamental analysis looks at the city itself:

Is a new factory being built? (More people move in → prices rise.)

Is a major employer shutting down? (People move away → prices fall.)

Are mortgage rates being lowered? (Housing becomes more affordable → prices rise.)

Technical analysis is about history and recurring patterns.

Fundamental analysis is about...

Ten days. Ten long days that spot gold has been unable to break out of the range between $4,400 and $4,600 per ounce. For an asset accustomed to swinging hundreds of dollars in a single session, this is an agonizingly narrow corridor. Gold is stuck as if trapped in a vise, with neither bulls nor bears able to move it from dead center.

On Wednesday morning, spot prices edged up a symbolic 0.2% to $4,518. Futures added 0.3%, reaching $4,550. The move is so modest it almost feels embarrassing to call it a rally. Yet beneath this apparent stillness lies a fierce battle between two opposing forces, each pulling gold in its own direction. And the name of those forces is Iran.

The main reason gold cannot decide on a direction is the stream of contradictory signals coming from the peace negotiations between the United States and Iran.

On Monday, U.S. forces struck targets in southern Iran. Gold, as expected, fell. Why did it fall instead of rise? Because the logic of the current conflict has turned traditional market relationships upside down.

Normally, war is fuel for gold. Investors flee risk, buy safe-haven assets, and the yellow metal rises. But this war is different. It has created an energy crisis that accelerated inflation. Inflation, in turn, has forced central banks to threaten higher interest rates. And the threat of higher rates is deadly poison for gold, which yields no interest income.

That is why the bombing of Iran is not pushing gold higher — it is dragging it lower instead. The market fears not the war itself, but its monetary consequences.

At the same time, however, negotiations continue. Diplomats remain at the table, discussing terms and exchanging draft agreements. Every headline...

Monday began with an unpleasant milestone for Bitcoin. The leading cryptocurrency broke below the seventy-seven-thousand-dollar level and continued sliding lower, trading around $76,946. A one-and-a-half percent daily loss is not particularly dramatic for an asset accustomed to swinging five to ten percent in a single session. But more important than the percentage itself is the fact that this marked Bitcoin’s lowest level since May 1. Nearly three weeks of gains and consolidation were erased in just a few trading sessions.

Just last week, Bitcoin looked promising. It briefly climbed above the eighty-thousand-dollar mark, and bulls had already begun speculating about when the next major psychological level would fall. But the breakout turned out to be false, and the market failed to hold the higher ground. Looking back now, it’s becoming clear that the move above eighty thousand was not the beginning of a new rally, but rather a final burst before a prolonged correction. The crypto market, which only recently was fueled by hopes of imminent monetary easing, has collided with a harsh reality where oil prices are rising, bond yields are climbing, and risk assets are getting crushed.

The main trigger behind today’s Bitcoin decline lies far outside the crypto world — in the Middle East and the bond market. On Monday, Brent crude oil surged above $110 per barrel, setting off a chain reaction that rippled across the entire financial universe.

Expensive oil means inflation. Inflation means higher interest rates. Higher rates are deadly for risk assets — and Bitcoin, whether people like it or not, still belongs in that category. Investors are looking at oil prices, headlines about drones over the UAE, and failed diplomatic negotiations with Iran, and drawing a simple conclusion: cheap energy is not coming back anytime...