Bank of China

At first glance, Asian currency markets looked almost sleepy on Wednesday. Most pairs drifted within narrow ranges, traders seemed to hit pause, and price action resembled the heartbeat monitor of a patient under heavy sedation. But this silence is deceptive. Beneath the surface calm of sideways trading lies enormous tension ready to erupt at any moment. When three forces converge at once — a war disrupting one-fifth of global oil supplies, renewed fears of Federal Reserve rate hikes, and deepening geopolitical fractures among major powers — markets do not calm down; they become paralyzed, trying to calculate where the first blow will come from.

The dollar index hovering near six-week highs is the perfect barometer of global anxiety. Whenever the world starts shaking, money inevitably rushes into the dollar, and the current situation is no exception. But what makes this moment unique is that the dollar is rising not only as a safe haven, but also as a currency that could become even more profitable. Markets have once again started talking about something they tried to forget over recent months — another Fed rate hike.

This narrative did not emerge out of nowhere. Remarks by Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson, made almost casually on Tuesday evening, became the detonator. When a senior Fed official says it is reasonable for markets to speculate about possible rate increases, it is not just rhetoric — it is a signal. Central bankers rarely speak carelessly. Behind such comments lies growing concern within the Fed over energy-driven inflation, which has begun accelerating again after the conflict with Iran disrupted supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

Inflation caused by a supply shock is the most unpleasant type of inflation for central banks. It cannot be fought...