Crude Oil

Iran's military says it launched drone strikes this week on two US-linked facilities: Al-Azraq Air Base in Jordan, and Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain, a key hub for the US Navy's Fifth Fleet. Housing, equipment depots, and aircraft maintenance hangars were reportedly hit at both sites.

I want to be careful about how I frame this, because this is a real war with real casualties, not a trading abstraction. But from a markets lens, this specific escalation matters in a way that's genuinely different from the disruptions we've seen so far this month, and I think oil is still underpricing it.

A Different Kind of Target

Tanker attacks and pipeline sabotage disrupt supply. They're serious, and they've already moved prices hard this month. But striking bases that house US military personnel directly is a different category of action. 

It's not an attack on the machinery of oil transport. It's an attack on the United States itself, and historically, that kind of strike raises the odds of a proportional or escalatory US response in a way that tanker attacks alone don't.

This Didn't Happen in Isolation

A Ceasefire That Hasn't Held

Back in June, the US and Iran signed a Pakistan-brokered memorandum intended to end a war that began in February. Strikes have continued on both sides regardless. This week's attacks aren't a rupture of some quiet peace, they're the continuation of a conflict that never actually paused, dressed up periodically in diplomatic language that hasn't matched what's happening on the ground.

Three Fronts, Not One

Here's what actually worries me about the current picture: this isn't one flashpoint, it's several opening at once. Direct strikes on US bases in Jordan and Bahrain. A newly opened Red Sea front, with Houthi forces striking Saudi oil tankers and declaring a blockade...

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🛢 What’s Next for Oil?

The charts are looking spicy.

The big question is: Where do we go from here?

Are we looking at a breakout towards higher levels due to supply constraints, or is the global economic slowdown going to push prices back into the "bear cave"?

What do you think about the oil price action for the coming month?

• Are you long,...