ETF

CAC 40 up 0.6%. DAX up 0.7%. ASML +2.6%, Infineon +3.1%, STMicro +3.7%. FTSE 100 in the red: AstraZeneca down over 9%, its worst day since 2017, after Wainua failed a late-stage cardiac trial. Bund 10Y easing to 3.06% from Wednesday’s two-month high of 3.10%. EUR/USD climbing toward 1.1450 — German trade surplus €19.1B (vs €14.5B prior). GBP/USD at a three-week high above 1.3400. Oil retreating nearly 2% to $73.10. Silver bouncing to $59.12 from Wednesday’s $57.22 low. Crypto holding losses: BTC near $62,300, Fear & Greed at 22.

HIGHEST CONVICTION: Fade the EU 5-year Bund yield rise toward 2.90%. The hawkish ECB repricing looks stretched relative to an oil shock that is potentially reversible if Qatar-mediated diplomacy gains traction.

Two Markets Inside One European Session

Thursday’s European session is a cautious rebound built on a fragile premise: that the Iran situation will de-escalate again, just as it did in June. The Stoxx 600 is up around 0.5%, led by semiconductor names — ASML up 2.6%, Infineon up 3.1%, STMicroelectronics up 3.7% — following strong investor demand for SK Hynix’s US share offering. France’s CAC 40 has recovered around 0.6% of Wednesday’s 2.2% slide. Germany’s DAX is up around 0.7%. The broader rally is happening on reports that Qatar is pressing Tehran to honour the existing memorandum of understanding and contain the escalation.

London is the session’s obvious exception. The FTSE 100 is in the red because AstraZeneca, its second-largest constituent, has plunged more than 9% — its steepest one-day fall since 2017 — after its gene-silencing drug Wainua, developed with Ionis Pharmaceuticals, failed a late-stage trial to prevent cardiac complications. One failed drug trial is erasing more index points than three European chipmakers are recovering.

The entire continental rebound rests on the assumption that Qatar’s mediation succeeds. Trump...

Trump declared the ceasefire MoU “over” and the US struck Iran for a second straight day. Brent is above $80 for the first time since June 22. The 10-year JGB yield is at its highest since September 1996. US Treasuries have added 10 basis points this week. The RBNZ hiked 25bp to 2.50% and signalled more. And Asia’s chipmakers are up 3–7% on a single Nvidia headline. Two completely different markets. Same session.

HIGHEST CONVICTION: USD/JPY is failing to track its own yield support near the 40-year peak. The pair eased 0.2% to 162.42 even as US 10-year yields climbed. Intervention risk and matching JGB yield rises are the explanation. This is a fade, not a chase.

The Oil Story That Is Breaking Bonds

President Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire memorandum of understanding “over.” The US military launched fresh strikes on Iran for a second consecutive day, this time specifically targeting infrastructure that would help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude cleared $80 per barrel for the first time since June 22, up roughly 9% on the week. WTI trades near $74.40. Trump said later he does not expect a return to full-scale war, which capped the initial panic, but the damage to inflation expectations was already done.

Fed funds futures now imply about 38 basis points of policy tightening this year, back to where pricing sat a week ago. Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes showed that a handful of participants already saw a case for raising rates in June before the committee agreed to hold. The oil-driven repricing is pulling Fed expectations back in a hawkish direction at the worst possible time for bond markets.

The 10-year JGB yield just hit its highest level since September 1996. Australia’s 10-year is at its highest since early June. The US 10-year...

Introduction: A Monday That Started in the Green

Monday, Asian trading session. Traders in Tokyo, Singapore, and Hong Kong open their terminals and see a familiar picture. Bitcoin is back in the green. $63,227.5 — that is the current price of the world’s leading cryptocurrency, gaining 0.8% in the morning and continuing the rally that began last week. This is not just a move — it is a return of confidence after several weeks of chaos, during which Bitcoin fell to a 21-month low below $58,000.

What changed? The main driver is the shift in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s policy. Weak U.S. labor market data for June and comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh about declining inflation convinced investors that the regulator is unlikely to raise rates this year. This means liquidity will remain high, while risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, will continue to attract demand.

But macroeconomics is not the only factor supporting Bitcoin. The renewed inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs after several weeks of outflows became another signal that institutional investors are returning to the market. The $221.7 million in inflows recorded last week ended a 10-day streak of outflows and changed market sentiment.

Over the past week, Bitcoin has risen by roughly 5%. This is not an impressive result compared with years when it doubled in a month, but it is important as a change in trend. After a prolonged decline, even a modest recovery is perceived as a victory. But is this growth sustainable? Analysts warn that trading volumes remain relatively low, and further ETF inflows and favorable macroeconomic data will likely be needed to maintain the upward momentum.

Altcoins are also feeling confident. Ethereum rose 0.7% to $1,775.92. XRP gained 0.6% to $1.14. Even meme tokens such as Dogecoin increased by 1.4%. On...

USD/CAD 1.4200 (7-month high range). USD/CHF 0.8032 (off 1-yr high 0.8139). Gold $4,174.71 (+2.3%) off $3,972 8-month low. WTI $68.73 (−3.6%) lowest since Feb. Dow record 52,900. US 10Y 4.48% (+6bps). BTC $62,641.86 (+7%) off June’s worst monthly close in 4 years. XRP $1.131 (+8%). FOMC minutes Wednesday.

LEVEL

HEADING INTO THE WEEK

USD/CAD

1.4200

USD/CHF

0.8032

Gold XAU

$4,174.71

WTI Crude

$68.73

Dow Jones

52,900.00

US 10Y Yield

4.48%

Bitcoin BTC

$62,641.86

XRP

$1.131

The holiday-shortened week of 29 June to 3 July turned on a single pivot: Thursday's 57,000 NFP print against a roughly 115,000 forecast, with 74,000 in downward revisions to prior months, cut September Fed hike odds from roughly 64 to 67% to roughly 50%. That data landed against the backdrop of a genuinely hawkish-leaning Fed hold earlier in June, and Warsh's Sintra remark that inflation expectations have come down gave markets room to price a more balanced outlook. The Dow closed at a fresh record 52,900.00, up 2% as capital rotated into blue-chip industrials while AI-linked semiconductor names -- Micron, Applied Materials, AMD, Sandisk -- sold off sharply on valuation concerns. Gold rebounded from an eight-month low as fading hike bets restored its appeal. WTI fell to its lowest since February as Hormuz flows normalised. Bitcoin rebounded 7% off June's worst monthly close in four years. XRP reclaimed $1.10 on a $281 million short squeeze. Wednesday's FOMC minutes are the week's tie-breaker.

FOMC Minutes Wednesday: The Week’s Single Most Important Release

The US 10-year yield at 4.48%, the Dow's record run, gold's rebound, and the broad-dollar bid behind USD/CAD's seven-month high are all suspended between two competing signals. The Fed's June hold left roughly half of FOMC members projecting at least one more 2026 hike...

EUR/USD 1.1437 (+0.5% wk). GBP/USD 1.3350 (+1.0%). Silver $62.37 (+4.1%). Wheat $5.88/bu (+2.1%). FTSE 100 10,634 (+2.9%) near 52-week high 10,935. Germany 10Y 2.95% (+6bps). ETH $1,753 (−2.9%). LTC $43.15 (+4.5%). ECB Accounts Thursday. FOMC Minutes Wednesday.

LEVEL

HEADING INTO THE WEEK

EUR/USD

1.1437

GBP/USD

1.3350

Silver

$62.37

Wheat CBOT

$5.88/bu

FTSE 100

10,634

Germany 10Y

2.95%

Ethereum ETH

$1,753

Litecoin LTC

$43.15

The week of 29 June to 3 July in the European session turned on Thursday's 57,000 NFP miss against a 115,000 consensus, which cut September Fed hike odds from roughly 67% to roughly 50% and drove a broad dollar retreat. EUR/USD reclaimed $1.14 on dollar weakness, not ECB strength -- Eurozone CPI undershot at 2.8% headline and 2.4% core, and Lagarde at Sintra described inflation and growth risks as more balanced, marking a clear softening from the hawkish June rate hike tone. GBP/USD reached a two-week high on the same dollar move, even as Bailey flagged a slowing economy without signalling imminent cuts. Silver rebounded sharply off seven-month lows. The FTSE 100 surged 2.9%, led by AstraZeneca, GSK, BAE Systems, and Babcock into a defensive-led rotation that insulated London from a global tech selloff. The week of 6 to 10 July asks whether this dollar-driven relief rally extends or fades as ECB Accounts, FOMC minutes, and UK political transition headlines take over.

EUR/USD at 1.1437: The ECB Accounts Are Thursday’s Gate

EUR/USD at 1.1437 sits roughly in the middle of its 2026 trading range -- above June's low of 1.1354 but well below January's high above 1.20. The analytical distinction the article makes explicit: the recovery was driven by broad US dollar weakness, not ECB hawkishness. Wednesday's Eurozone CPI came in below forecast at 2.8% headline and...

USD/JPY 161.85 near 40-year yen low -- MoF may abandon advance signalling. AUD/USD 0.6940 off 3-month lows. Copper $6.11 awaiting binary tariff call. Nat gas $3.17 down 3.9%. Hang Seng 23,416 +3.3%. DOGE $0.0766 off $0.072 shelf. ADA $0.174 +19.2%. Van Rossem hard fork opens 8 July. China CPI Thursday. BOJ Summary of Opinions Tuesday.

LEVEL

HEADING INTO THE WEEK

USD/JPY

161.85

AUD/USD

0.6940

Copper COMEX

$6.11/lb

Nat Gas HH

$3.17/MMBtu

Hang Seng

23,416

Dogecoin DOGE

$0.0766

Cardano ADA

$0.174

The week of 29 June to 3 July was defined by a single pivot: Thursday's 57,000 NFP print against a 115,000 consensus, which cut September Fed hike odds from roughly 67% to roughly 50% and triggered a broad relief rally into the weekend. USD/JPY clawed back from its intraweek 40-year high as Reuters reported Tokyo may abandon advance intervention signalling -- a shift that caused a nearly 1% yen rally on one-sided positioning alone. AUD/USD recovered off three-month lows. The Hang Seng staged its sharpest rebound in months, adding 3.3% to recover from its prior week's worst single session in over a year. Cardano surged 19.2% -- the sharpest move in this report. The week of 6 to 10 July asks whether that Fed-pause relief rally has genuine follow-through, or whether three regional catalysts -- yen intervention risk, a binary copper tariff decision, and China's June inflation data -- reassert more cautious two-way price action.

USD/JPY at 161.85: The Week's Highest Tail Risk

USD/JPY at 161.85 sits within striking distance of the yen's weakest level in roughly forty years. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has repeatedly warned that authorities stand ready to respond appropriately at any time. Thursday's sharp, nearly 1% yen rally -- triggered by a Reuters report that Tokyo may...

DXY ~100.8 -- on track for biggest weekly drop since early April. EUR/USD ~1.1443 two-week high. GBP/USD ~1.3365 best week in ~3 months. DAX 40 record ~25,747. STOXX 600 record ~651.5. Gold ~$4,185-$4,190. Copper ~$6.18/lb. ETH +7% to ~$1,717. Yen intervention watch live. US markets closed for Independence Day.

YEN INTERVENTION WATCH LIVE: FM Katayama issued fresh verbal warning Friday after yen touched 40-year low near 162.8 Thursday. Holiday-thinned session = elevated volatility risk.

LEVEL

SESSION STORY

EUR/USD

~1.1443

Two-week high. Up ~0.6% on week. Dollar weakness dominates over softer Eurozone CPI (headline 2.8%, core 2.4%).

GBP/USD

~1.3365

Best week in ~3 months (+1.2%). Bailey's Sintra remarks did little to slow the advance. Pure dollar-weakness story.

Gold XAU

~$4,185-$4,190

Extending advance. +1.3% on session. Dollar slide + reduced hike odds. WGC structural floor intact.

Copper

~$6.18/lb

+1.1-1.3% on session. Softer dollar + Goldman Sachs constructive demand commentary (EV, renewables, AI).

DAX 40

~25,747

Fresh all-time high. +0.65-0.9% on session. Siemens biggest boost (Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade). Defence names add.

STOXX 600

~651.5

Own record high. Best weekly rise since mid-May. Defence stocks +0.8% on Russia's deadliest Ukraine strike this year.

Ethereum ETH

~$1,717

+7%. Reclaims $1,700 handle. Sharp reversal after weeks of underperformance vs BTC.

Litecoin LTC

~$42.26

+~2%. Riding broader risk-on wave.

Natural Gas

~$3.25

Testing Fibonacci resistance inside descending channel. $3.245-$3.285 key band. Neutral-to-bearish structure.

Germany 20Y Bund

~3.30%

Easing from near two-week high as US Treasury yields pull back on reduced Fed-hike expectations.

Thursday's 57,000 NFP miss against a 115,000 consensus, combined with downward revisions to April and May payrolls, has done what five straight Nasdaq losing sessions and four straight gold weekly declines could not: it has cleanly broken the dollar's grip on European markets. The DXY has slipped to around 100.8, on track...

Introduction: Friday Recovery After a Long Winter

Friday. The cryptocurrency market, which in recent weeks had resembled a desert, suddenly comes back to life. Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, rises above $61,000 and moves toward a weekly gain. $61,632.5 — that is exactly how much Bitcoin is worth on Friday morning, adding 1.9% over the past 24 hours. This is not an all-time high, not a record, but it is a breath of life after the market went through one of the most painful declines in its short history.

What happened? Weak U.S. labor market data released on Thursday changed investors’ expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. If the market had previously been preparing for another rate hike, those expectations have now weakened. And for Bitcoin, which is highly sensitive to liquidity and macroeconomic signals, this became a long-awaited catalyst.

But macroeconomics is not the only factor supporting Bitcoin. On Friday, it became known that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $221.7 million, ending a streak of 10 consecutive sessions of outflows. Institutional investors, who had been exiting cryptocurrency in recent weeks, began entering the market again. And this changed market sentiment.

Altcoins also caught the wave. Ethereum jumped 5% to $1,707.89. XRP rose 3.3%. Solana gained 3.5%. Cardano surged 6%. Meme tokens also kept pace. The cryptocurrency market came back to life on Friday, and investors once again began to believe in the possibility of a recovery.

But let’s not rush to conclusions. Bitcoin lost more than 30% in the first half of 2026 — its weakest six-month performance in years. And although the current rise looks encouraging, the market remains vulnerable. One negative signal would be enough for Bitcoin to fall below $60,000 again. Let’s examine what is really behind this recovery and where the cryptocurrency market...

June NFP: 57,000 vs 115,000 consensus. Unemployment 4.2% (expected 4.3%). Fed September hike odds: 45-53%, from 65-67%. Dow Jones record close 52,900.07, +594.83 pts (+1.14%). Nasdaq -0.8%. S&P flat. US markets closed Friday for Independence Day. Yen at 40-year low 161.35. Kospi +6% intraday, triggers 'sidecar' halt.

57,000  June NFP  vs 115,000 consensus -- roughly half the forecast -- unemployment 4.2% vs 4.3% expected

52,900.07  Dow Jones close  +594.83 pts (+1.14%) -- fresh record high Thursday

45-53%  Sept hike odds  down from 65-67% before the payrolls report (CME FedWatch)

Thursday's NFP printed 57,000 against a 115,000 consensus -- roughly half of what the market expected. The unemployment rate came in at 4.2% against a 4.3% forecast, providing a modest offset that the market read as labour-market cooling rather than genuine downturn. Fed funds futures now imply a September hike probability of 45 to 53%, sharply down from 65 to 67% before the report. The combination produced a Dow Jones record close at 52,900.07, up 594.83 points, a 1.14% gain. The Nasdaq fell 0.8% and the S&P 500 finished essentially flat, underscoring a rotation away from megacap technology names even as the broader risk-on tone carried into Asia.

Friday's Asian session is the post-payrolls reaction carrying through a full trading day with US markets completely absent. South Korea's Kospi is the standout: reversing an early dip to surge more than 6% intraday and triggering a trading 'sidecar' halt as SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both rallied more than 8% on renewed AI-chip demand optimism. This is a sharp turnaround after the index's roughly 8% slump earlier in the week. The USD/JPY intervention story is simultaneously live: the pair is holding above 161.00 but capped below 161.50, within a 161.00-161.74 day range, as Japan's Finance Minister Katayama repeats...

DXY above 100 for first time since May 2025. USD/CAD 1.4193 -- best since late January. USD/CHF 0.8099. Gold $4,089 after fourth consecutive weekly decline, briefly sub-$4,000. Nasdaq 100 -4.60% on five-day losing streak from June 3 record near 30,762. US 10Y 4.37% (-7bps). BTC $60,345.50 -- lowest since late 2024. ADA $0.146 multi-year lows. US markets closed Friday.

LEVEL

HEADING INTO THE WEEK

USD/CAD

1.4193

Five-month high (best since late Jan). Dollar + deteriorating Canadian growth + gold pullback. ISM Tue + NFP Thu are the gates.

USD/CHF

0.8099

DXY above 100 first time since May 2025. CHF safe-haven demand outweighed by greenback rally.

Gold XAU

$4,089

Fourth consecutive weekly decline. Briefly sub-$4,000 before Friday PCE bounce reclaimed $4K. $3,800-$3,900 structural floor.

Wheat CBOT

588.45c

Eased from 3-week high. Hormuz freight premium easing + improving US harvest + Black Sea conditions.

Nasdaq 100

29,045

-4.60%. Five-day losing streak from June 3 record near 30,762. Chip rout + delayed AI IPO headlines drove the fall.

US 10Y Yield

4.37%

-7bps. Seven-week low. In-line PCE trimmed (not eliminated) multiple-hike bets. Core PCE held at 3.4%.

Bitcoin BTC

$60,345.50

Lowest since late 2024. Spot ETF outflows accelerated. Capital rotating to defensive equity + AI infrastructure.

Cardano ADA

$0.146

Multi-year lows. Amplified BTC breakdown on smaller cap + thinner institutional liquidity.

A hawkish-priced dollar and a five-day Nasdaq losing streak. Does ISM Manufacturing on Tuesday deliver the reprieve, or does a holiday-shortened week with Friday closure deliver thinner liquidity and sharper moves?

USD/CAD at 1.4193: The Most Consequential North American Pair

USD/CAD at 1.4193 is the most consequential North American pair for the week. The loonie's slide to a five-month high in USD/CAD terms -- its best level since late January -- reflects a combination of broad-based dollar strength and a...