Bitcoin Holds Above $61,000 Amid Weak U.S. Labor Market Data

Introduction: Friday Recovery After a Long Winter

Friday. The cryptocurrency market, which in recent weeks had resembled a desert, suddenly comes back to life. Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, rises above $61,000 and moves toward a weekly gain. $61,632.5 — that is exactly how much Bitcoin is worth on Friday morning, adding 1.9% over the past 24 hours. This is not an all-time high, not a record, but it is a breath of life after the market went through one of the most painful declines in its short history.

What happened? Weak U.S. labor market data released on Thursday changed investors’ expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. If the market had previously been preparing for another rate hike, those expectations have now weakened. And for Bitcoin, which is highly sensitive to liquidity and macroeconomic signals, this became a long-awaited catalyst.

But macroeconomics is not the only factor supporting Bitcoin. On Friday, it became known that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $221.7 million, ending a streak of 10 consecutive sessions of outflows. Institutional investors, who had been exiting cryptocurrency in recent weeks, began entering the market again. And this changed market sentiment.

Altcoins also caught the wave. Ethereum jumped 5% to $1,707.89. XRP rose 3.3%. Solana gained 3.5%. Cardano surged 6%. Meme tokens also kept pace. The cryptocurrency market came back to life on Friday, and investors once again began to believe in the possibility of a recovery.

But let’s not rush to conclusions. Bitcoin lost more than 30% in the first half of 2026 — its weakest six-month performance in years. And although the current rise looks encouraging, the market remains vulnerable. One negative signal would be enough for Bitcoin to fall below $60,000 again. Let’s examine what is really behind this recovery and where the cryptocurrency market is heading.

Macroeconomic Background: Why Labor Market Data Matters So Much for Bitcoin

A Weak Labor Market — a Hawkish Signal in Reverse

The main event on Thursday was the release of U.S. labor market data. The numbers came in significantly weaker than expected, changing the perception of the entire macroeconomic picture. While just a week ago markets were confident that the Fed could raise rates this year, that confidence has now been shaken.

For Bitcoin, this is extremely important. Cryptocurrencies, like other risk assets, are sensitive to interest rate expectations. When markets expect tightening, liquidity declines, money flows into more defensive assets, and Bitcoin comes under pressure. When those expectations weaken, liquidity returns, and Bitcoin can rise.

The CME FedWatch tool, which tracks probabilities of rate changes, recorded a sharp decline in expectations for tightening. Investors shifted their forecasts toward a pause, and some even started talking about the possibility of rate cuts next year. This created a favorable backdrop for Bitcoin, allowing it to seize the moment and rise above $61,000.

An IG analyst recently pointed to the key question for the medium-term outlook: will the data released in the coming months be strong enough to force the Fed to carry out its “hawkish” stance? Especially considering that cycles with only a single rate hike are extremely rare. If the data continues to deteriorate, the Fed may not only keep rates unchanged but also begin considering rate cuts. That would be a powerful bullish signal for Bitcoin.

Inflation and Liquidity: The Two Main Enemies or Allies

Inflation remains a key factor for all markets, including cryptocurrencies. High inflation forces central banks to raise interest rates, which reduces liquidity and weighs on risk assets. Low inflation gives central banks room to soften policy, which increases liquidity and supports growth.

In recent months, inflation expectations have declined, especially after the signing of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran and the drop in oil prices. This reduced pressure on the Fed and gave markets hope for possible easing.

Bitcoin, often called “digital gold,” benefits from lower inflation expectations in the sense that they reduce the likelihood of tightening. But it also benefits from rising liquidity, which central banks can provide if they begin easing policy.

For now, markets are in an intermediate phase. Inflation is falling, but not enough for central banks to begin cutting rates. However, the decline in inflation has already been sufficient to weaken hawkish expectations. And that was enough for Bitcoin to rebound from a 21-month low.

Institutional Demand: ETF Inflows as a Key Signal

10 Sessions of Outflows Have Ended

Perhaps even more important than the macroeconomic backdrop was the return of net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to SoSoValue, on July 2, U.S. ETFs recorded inflows of $221.7 million, ending a streak of 10 consecutive sessions of outflows.

This is an important psychological signal. Institutional investors, who had been actively exiting Bitcoin in recent weeks, have started entering again. And when major players begin buying, it creates additional demand and supports prices.

The 10-day outflow streak was one of the longest in recent times. It reflected investor pessimism caused by the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric and the overall deterioration in sentiment across risk markets. Now that outflows have turned into inflows, the market has received a signal for recovery.

The Role of ETFs in Bitcoin Price Formation

Spot Bitcoin ETFs became one of the main drivers of Bitcoin’s growth in 2025. They opened access to cryptocurrency for a wide range of institutional investors, including pension funds and insurance companies. This created steady demand, which pushed Bitcoin toward record highs.

But the same structure that fueled growth has now become a source of volatility. When institutional investors exit ETFs, it puts pressure on the price. When they enter, the price rises.

The current inflow of $221.7 million is not a record, but it marks a change in trend. If inflows continue to grow in the coming weeks, this could become the foundation for a more sustainable recovery.

Technical Picture: Rebound From a 21-Month Low

$58,000 as the Bottom?

Bitcoin reached a 21-month low below $58,000 this week. It was a painful decline that made many investors question the future of cryptocurrency. But it was from these levels that the recovery began.

Technically, the rebound from $58,000 looks like a defense of an important support level. Many traders viewed this level as psychologically significant, and when Bitcoin fell below it, panic began. But then buyers returned, and the price rebounded above $61,000.

The key levels now stand at $62,000 resistance and $58,000 support. If Bitcoin can consolidate above $62,000, it would open the way toward $65,000 and $68,000. If it falls below $58,000, it could trigger a new wave of selling.

Weekly Growth of Around 3%

By the end of the week, Bitcoin may post growth of around 3%. This is not an impressive result, but it is important as a change in trend. After several weeks of decline, during which Bitcoin lost 5–10% per week, even a small gain is perceived as a victory.

A 3% weekly gain is not a reversal, but it is a halt to the decline. And if Bitcoin can hold these positions next week, it could become the basis for a more sustainable recovery.

Altcoins: A Broad Rally After a Long Sleep

Ethereum: +5% and Awakening

Ether, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, jumped 5% to $1,707.89. This is one of its strongest one-day gains in recent weeks. Ether had been especially vulnerable in recent months due to declining activity in DeFi and weak demand for NFTs. But now that Bitcoin has started to rise, Ether has followed.

Ether’s growth may also be linked to expectations of an improved regulatory climate for altcoins. In recent weeks, there have been signs that the SEC may soften its stance toward certain cryptocurrencies.

XRP, Solana, Cardano: The Revival of Meme Tokens and More

XRP rose 3.3% to $1.09. Solana gained 3.5%. Cardano surged 6%. Meme tokens also kept pace: Dogecoin rose 2.6%.

This broad rally suggests that market sentiment is improving. Investors are not simply buying Bitcoin — they are buying the entire spectrum of cryptocurrencies, including altcoins, which often demonstrate greater volatility.

Cardano, with its 6% gain, is the leader among the top 10 cryptocurrencies. This may be related to news about a network upgrade or simply to the overall improvement in sentiment.

What Awaits Bitcoin in the Coming Months

The Main Question: Will New Data Be Weak Enough?

As the IG analyst noted, the main question for the medium-term outlook is whether the data released in the coming months will be strong enough to force the Fed to implement its “hawkish” stance. Especially given that cycles with only a single rate hike are extremely rare.

If inflation and employment data continue to deteriorate, the Fed may not only keep rates unchanged but also begin thinking about cutting them. This would be a powerful bullish signal for Bitcoin because lower rates increase liquidity and make risk assets more attractive.

If the data turns out to be strong, the Fed may return to hawkish rhetoric. In that case, Bitcoin would once again come under pressure.

Institutional Demand: Inflows or Outflows

Another key factor is the behavior of institutional investors. If ETF inflows continue to grow, this will support Bitcoin on its path toward $65,000 and above. If outflows resume, Bitcoin could fall back toward $58,000.

Institutional investors are currently in “wait-and-see” mode. They want to see more evidence that the Fed will not tighten policy before increasing their cryptocurrency positions.

Seasonal Factors

Summer is traditionally a period of lower activity in cryptocurrency markets. Traders go on vacation, trading volumes fall, and volatility decreases. This may limit Bitcoin’s upside potential in the coming weeks.

But summer can also be a period of unexpected moves, especially if macroeconomic news creates momentum. Everything will depend on how the market interprets new data.

Conclusion: $61,000 Is Not a Victory, but It Is a Step Toward One

Bitcoin is holding above $61,000 on Friday, gaining 1.9% and showing weekly growth of around 3%. Weak U.S. labor market data and renewed ETF inflows created a favorable backdrop for recovery after the decline toward a 21-month low.

Altcoins are also rising, with Ethereum jumping 5%, Cardano gaining 6%, and meme tokens keeping pace.

But let’s not forget: the first half of 2026 was one of the weakest periods in years for Bitcoin. A loss of more than 30% in capitalization over six months is a serious test for the cryptocurrency market. The current recovery is not a victory over the bearish trend, but only the first attempt to stop the decline.

The main question for investors is whether the Fed will be forced to raise rates despite weak employment data. If yes, Bitcoin will once again come under pressure. If not, Bitcoin will have room to grow.

Institutional investors, who have started returning to ETFs, offer hope for continued recovery. But inflows of $221.7 million are only the beginning. For Bitcoin to consolidate above $62,000 and move toward $65,000, more stable and significant inflows are needed.

For now, Bitcoin is holding above $61,000. This is not a victory, but it is a step in the right direction. Summer continues, the market is coming back to life, and cryptocurrencies have a chance to recover. But for that, they need not only luck, but also a steady stream of positive macroeconomic signals. And if those signals come, Bitcoin will be able not just to hold its ground, but to move higher.