European Session Weekly | 6–10 July 2026 European Stocks Hit Record Highs on a Softer Dollar. A Cautious ECB and Wednesday’s Fed Minutes Set the Tone

EUR/USD 1.1437 (+0.5% wk). GBP/USD 1.3350 (+1.0%). Silver $62.37 (+4.1%). Wheat $5.88/bu (+2.1%). FTSE 100 10,634 (+2.9%) near 52-week high 10,935. Germany 10Y 2.95% (+6bps). ETH $1,753 (−2.9%). LTC $43.15 (+4.5%). ECB Accounts Thursday. FOMC Minutes Wednesday.

LEVEL

HEADING INTO THE WEEK

EUR/USD

1.1437

GBP/USD

1.3350

Silver

$62.37

Wheat CBOT

$5.88/bu

FTSE 100

10,634

Germany 10Y

2.95%

Ethereum ETH

$1,753

Litecoin LTC

$43.15

The week of 29 June to 3 July in the European session turned on Thursday’s 57,000 NFP miss against a 115,000 consensus, which cut September Fed hike odds from roughly 67% to roughly 50% and drove a broad dollar retreat. EUR/USD reclaimed $1.14 on dollar weakness, not ECB strength — Eurozone CPI undershot at 2.8% headline and 2.4% core, and Lagarde at Sintra described inflation and growth risks as more balanced, marking a clear softening from the hawkish June rate hike tone. GBP/USD reached a two-week high on the same dollar move, even as Bailey flagged a slowing economy without signalling imminent cuts. Silver rebounded sharply off seven-month lows. The FTSE 100 surged 2.9%, led by AstraZeneca, GSK, BAE Systems, and Babcock into a defensive-led rotation that insulated London from a global tech selloff. The week of 6 to 10 July asks whether this dollar-driven relief rally extends or fades as ECB Accounts, FOMC minutes, and UK political transition headlines take over.

EUR/USD at 1.1437: The ECB Accounts Are Thursday’s Gate

EUR/USD at 1.1437 sits roughly in the middle of its 2026 trading range — above June’s low of 1.1354 but well below January’s high above 1.20. The analytical distinction the article makes explicit: the recovery was driven by broad US dollar weakness, not ECB hawkishness. Wednesday’s Eurozone CPI came in below forecast at 2.8% headline and 2.4% core, and Lagarde’s Sintra comments — that risks to inflation and growth have become more balanced — marked a clear shift from the tone that accompanied the ECB’s June rate hike, the first among G7 central banks after the Iran-related oil shock. Thursday’s ECB Accounts of the June meeting is the week’s single most important scheduled input for the European session: a hawkish-leaning account would support EUR/USD toward 1.16 to 1.17 and keep Bund yields elevated ahead of the 23 July decision; a dovish confirmation would likely cap the euro’s rally.

Wednesday’s US FOMC minutes also land overnight into Thursday’s European open, setting the immediate context. Hawkish detail on the September hike debate would pressure the dollar-softness narrative that has supported EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and silver; further evidence of a dovish tilt would extend it.

Entry (long): 1.1350 — buy against recent range low

Stop: 1.1250 — below June closing low; invalidates recovery thesis

Target: 1.1650 — upper end of recent multi-month range

Key gate: ECB Accounts Thursday; FOMC minutes Wednesday overnight

GBP/USD at 1.3350: Two-Sided Range With Political Wildcard

GBP/USD at 1.3350 is at a two-week high but the article frames it as a genuine two-sided setup. UK and US policy rates are almost level at 3.75% and 3.50 to 3.75% respectively, leaving the pair with little yield-differential pull. Bailey at Sintra flagged a slowing economy and ruled out imminent rate cuts. The bigger swing factor this year has become politics, not monetary policy: Starmer’s resignation in June and Andy Burnham’s expected transition to Prime Minister in late July have echoes, on a smaller scale, of the 2022 mini-budget episode. Any headline on the Labour leadership transition should be treated as a potential trigger for outsized gilt and sterling moves independent of the dollar.

Range: 1.3250–1.3550 — two-sided; conservative sizing

Entry (long): 1.3250 — lower end of range

Stop: 1.3100 — below recent range low

Target: 1.3550 — upper end on continued dollar softness

Silver at $62.37: Rebound Off Seven-Month Lows Into FOMC Minutes

Silver at $62.37 has staged one of the sharpest reversals in this report, rebounding from a seven-month low near $57.80 after Warsh acknowledged that US inflation expectations have eased and after the NFP miss cut September hike odds to roughly 50% from 67%. The Silver Institute’s data shows a sixth consecutive annual global supply deficit — the structural floor. The metal fell more than 30% from January’s all-time high above $110 on June’s hawkish dot-plot scare. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes are the week’s key scheduled catalyst: a dovish-leaning set would extend this bounce; any hawkish surprise on the internal hike debate could quickly reverse gains given how sentiment-driven this move has been.

Entry (long): $58.50 — buy pullback toward recent breakout zone

Stop: $55.00 — below seven-month low; invalidates reversal thesis

Target: $68.00 — psychological resistance that capped rallies earlier in 2026

Wheat at $5.88: Tight US Stocks vs Ample Global Supply

Wheat at $5.88 per bushel bounced off a near four-month low after USDA’s June 1 stocks report showed inventories of 920 million bushels, below expectations, and the acreage survey confirmed the smallest US wheat plantings in decades at 42.74 million acres. Both supportive. But the article’s framework is that this rally has structural headwinds: the US winter wheat harvest is running well ahead of both last year and the five-year average pace, and Black Sea production prospects remain favourable. Thursday’s weekly USDA export sales report is the key catalyst — strong demand from Asian buyers is the clearest near-term upside risk to the fade-the-rally framework.

Entry (short): $6.15 — fade any further recovery toward range highs

Stop: $6.35 — above level signalling tight-supply narrative overriding harvest

Target: $5.65 — retest of recent lows

FTSE 100 at 10,634: Defensive Rotation Near 52-Week High

The FTSE 100’s 2.9% weekly surge — led by AstraZeneca, GSK, BAE Systems, and Babcock International — left the index within roughly 2.8% of its 52-week high of 10,935. The index’s heavy weighting toward energy, banks, and defensives has historically made it a relative beneficiary during technology-sector stress and falling US rate expectations, both of which have been in play this week. CSFX’s framework favours buying dips rather than chasing the current rally, with the 10,500 level the confirmed pullbac