US Session Weekly | 6–10 July 2026 Dow Jones at Record Highs as Oil Slides on Hormuz Reopening, Gold Rebounds on Soft Jobs Data, and Bitcoin Claws Back From Extreme Fear

USD/CAD 1.4200 (7-month high range). USD/CHF 0.8032 (off 1-yr high 0.8139). Gold $4,174.71 (+2.3%) off $3,972 8-month low. WTI $68.73 (−3.6%) lowest since Feb. Dow record 52,900. US 10Y 4.48% (+6bps). BTC $62,641.86 (+7%) off June’s worst monthly close in 4 years. XRP $1.131 (+8%). FOMC minutes Wednesday.

LEVEL

HEADING INTO THE WEEK

USD/CAD

1.4200

USD/CHF

0.8032

Gold XAU

$4,174.71

WTI Crude

$68.73

Dow Jones

52,900.00

US 10Y Yield

4.48%

Bitcoin BTC

$62,641.86

XRP

$1.131

The holiday-shortened week of 29 June to 3 July turned on a single pivot: Thursday’s 57,000 NFP print against a roughly 115,000 forecast, with 74,000 in downward revisions to prior months, cut September Fed hike odds from roughly 64 to 67% to roughly 50%. That data landed against the backdrop of a genuinely hawkish-leaning Fed hold earlier in June, and Warsh’s Sintra remark that inflation expectations have come down gave markets room to price a more balanced outlook. The Dow closed at a fresh record 52,900.00, up 2% as capital rotated into blue-chip industrials while AI-linked semiconductor names — Micron, Applied Materials, AMD, Sandisk — sold off sharply on valuation concerns. Gold rebounded from an eight-month low as fading hike bets restored its appeal. WTI fell to its lowest since February as Hormuz flows normalised. Bitcoin rebounded 7% off June’s worst monthly close in four years. XRP reclaimed $1.10 on a $281 million short squeeze. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes are the week’s tie-breaker.

FOMC Minutes Wednesday: The Week’s Single Most Important Release

The US 10-year yield at 4.48%, the Dow’s record run, gold’s rebound, and the broad-dollar bid behind USD/CAD’s seven-month high are all suspended between two competing signals. The Fed’s June hold left roughly half of FOMC members projecting at least one more 2026 hike — genuinely hawkish. Thursday’s 57,000 NFP cut September hike odds to near 50%. Warsh’s own Sintra acknowledgment that inflation expectations have come down added the dovish layer. Wednesday’s minutes resolve that tension: a hawkish-leaning account would support the dollar and yields while pressuring gold and equities; a dovish-leaning account revealing genuine internal division would extend the risk-asset rally and gold’s bounce.

USD/CAD at 1.4200: Range Trade Pending FOMC

USD/CAD at 1.4200 is consolidating just below its recent seven-month high of 1.4236, having climbed from a 2026 low near 1.3486 in January. The Bank of Canada held at 2.25% at its most recent meeting, characterising risks as two-sided. With no fresh BoC decision this week, near-term direction hinges more on the broad-dollar side — chiefly Wednesday’s FOMC minutes — than on Canada-specific catalysts. Tuesday’s Canada Ivey PMI (consensus 53.0) is the key domestic input. A hawkish FOMC account extends USD/CAD toward 1.44; a dovish account could fade the pair back toward 1.40.

Range: 1.4100–1.4270 — genuine two-way pending FOMC

Entry (long): 1.4100 — lower end of range

Stop: 1.4020 — below multi-week consolidation base

Target: 1.4270 — retest of range high

USD/CHF at 0.8032: Corrective Dip Within Broader Uptrend

USD/CHF at 0.8032 has pulled back roughly 1% from the one-year high of 0.8139 set on 24 June, giving back ground after the NFP miss trimmed dollar momentum. The SNB held its policy rate at 0% for a fourth consecutive meeting, revising its inflation outlook higher while flagging willingness to intervene in FX markets if necessary. The 0.8040 to 0.8050 zone is described by chart-based analysts as a high-conviction institutional accumulation area. Thursday’s Swiss unemployment data (forecast 2.5%) is a secondary release. CSFX’s framework treats this as a corrective pullback within a broader bullish structure rather than a genuine trend change.

Entry (long): 0.7980 — 61.8% retracement of recent rally

Stop: 0.7900 — invalidates broader uptrend

Target: 0.8140 — retest of one-yea