Bonds

USD/CAD 1.4200 (7-month high range). USD/CHF 0.8032 (off 1-yr high 0.8139). Gold $4,174.71 (+2.3%) off $3,972 8-month low. WTI $68.73 (−3.6%) lowest since Feb. Dow record 52,900. US 10Y 4.48% (+6bps). BTC $62,641.86 (+7%) off June’s worst monthly close in 4 years. XRP $1.131 (+8%). FOMC minutes Wednesday.

LEVEL

HEADING INTO THE WEEK

USD/CAD

1.4200

USD/CHF

0.8032

Gold XAU

$4,174.71

WTI Crude

$68.73

Dow Jones

52,900.00

US 10Y Yield

4.48%

Bitcoin BTC

$62,641.86

XRP

$1.131

The holiday-shortened week of 29 June to 3 July turned on a single pivot: Thursday's 57,000 NFP print against a roughly 115,000 forecast, with 74,000 in downward revisions to prior months, cut September Fed hike odds from roughly 64 to 67% to roughly 50%. That data landed against the backdrop of a genuinely hawkish-leaning Fed hold earlier in June, and Warsh's Sintra remark that inflation expectations have come down gave markets room to price a more balanced outlook. The Dow closed at a fresh record 52,900.00, up 2% as capital rotated into blue-chip industrials while AI-linked semiconductor names -- Micron, Applied Materials, AMD, Sandisk -- sold off sharply on valuation concerns. Gold rebounded from an eight-month low as fading hike bets restored its appeal. WTI fell to its lowest since February as Hormuz flows normalised. Bitcoin rebounded 7% off June's worst monthly close in four years. XRP reclaimed $1.10 on a $281 million short squeeze. Wednesday's FOMC minutes are the week's tie-breaker.

FOMC Minutes Wednesday: The Week’s Single Most Important Release

The US 10-year yield at 4.48%, the Dow's record run, gold's rebound, and the broad-dollar bid behind USD/CAD's seven-month high are all suspended between two competing signals. The Fed's June hold left roughly half of FOMC members projecting at least one more 2026 hike...

EUR/USD 1.1437 (+0.5% wk). GBP/USD 1.3350 (+1.0%). Silver $62.37 (+4.1%). Wheat $5.88/bu (+2.1%). FTSE 100 10,634 (+2.9%) near 52-week high 10,935. Germany 10Y 2.95% (+6bps). ETH $1,753 (−2.9%). LTC $43.15 (+4.5%). ECB Accounts Thursday. FOMC Minutes Wednesday.

LEVEL

HEADING INTO THE WEEK

EUR/USD

1.1437

GBP/USD

1.3350

Silver

$62.37

Wheat CBOT

$5.88/bu

FTSE 100

10,634

Germany 10Y

2.95%

Ethereum ETH

$1,753

Litecoin LTC

$43.15

The week of 29 June to 3 July in the European session turned on Thursday's 57,000 NFP miss against a 115,000 consensus, which cut September Fed hike odds from roughly 67% to roughly 50% and drove a broad dollar retreat. EUR/USD reclaimed $1.14 on dollar weakness, not ECB strength -- Eurozone CPI undershot at 2.8% headline and 2.4% core, and Lagarde at Sintra described inflation and growth risks as more balanced, marking a clear softening from the hawkish June rate hike tone. GBP/USD reached a two-week high on the same dollar move, even as Bailey flagged a slowing economy without signalling imminent cuts. Silver rebounded sharply off seven-month lows. The FTSE 100 surged 2.9%, led by AstraZeneca, GSK, BAE Systems, and Babcock into a defensive-led rotation that insulated London from a global tech selloff. The week of 6 to 10 July asks whether this dollar-driven relief rally extends or fades as ECB Accounts, FOMC minutes, and UK political transition headlines take over.

EUR/USD at 1.1437: The ECB Accounts Are Thursday’s Gate

EUR/USD at 1.1437 sits roughly in the middle of its 2026 trading range -- above June's low of 1.1354 but well below January's high above 1.20. The analytical distinction the article makes explicit: the recovery was driven by broad US dollar weakness, not ECB hawkishness. Wednesday's Eurozone CPI came in below forecast at 2.8% headline and...

USD/JPY 161.85 near 40-year yen low -- MoF may abandon advance signalling. AUD/USD 0.6940 off 3-month lows. Copper $6.11 awaiting binary tariff call. Nat gas $3.17 down 3.9%. Hang Seng 23,416 +3.3%. DOGE $0.0766 off $0.072 shelf. ADA $0.174 +19.2%. Van Rossem hard fork opens 8 July. China CPI Thursday. BOJ Summary of Opinions Tuesday.

LEVEL

HEADING INTO THE WEEK

USD/JPY

161.85

AUD/USD

0.6940

Copper COMEX

$6.11/lb

Nat Gas HH

$3.17/MMBtu

Hang Seng

23,416

Dogecoin DOGE

$0.0766

Cardano ADA

$0.174

The week of 29 June to 3 July was defined by a single pivot: Thursday's 57,000 NFP print against a 115,000 consensus, which cut September Fed hike odds from roughly 67% to roughly 50% and triggered a broad relief rally into the weekend. USD/JPY clawed back from its intraweek 40-year high as Reuters reported Tokyo may abandon advance intervention signalling -- a shift that caused a nearly 1% yen rally on one-sided positioning alone. AUD/USD recovered off three-month lows. The Hang Seng staged its sharpest rebound in months, adding 3.3% to recover from its prior week's worst single session in over a year. Cardano surged 19.2% -- the sharpest move in this report. The week of 6 to 10 July asks whether that Fed-pause relief rally has genuine follow-through, or whether three regional catalysts -- yen intervention risk, a binary copper tariff decision, and China's June inflation data -- reassert more cautious two-way price action.

USD/JPY at 161.85: The Week's Highest Tail Risk

USD/JPY at 161.85 sits within striking distance of the yen's weakest level in roughly forty years. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has repeatedly warned that authorities stand ready to respond appropriately at any time. Thursday's sharp, nearly 1% yen rally -- triggered by a Reuters report that Tokyo may...

DXY ~100.8 -- on track for biggest weekly drop since early April. EUR/USD ~1.1443 two-week high. GBP/USD ~1.3365 best week in ~3 months. DAX 40 record ~25,747. STOXX 600 record ~651.5. Gold ~$4,185-$4,190. Copper ~$6.18/lb. ETH +7% to ~$1,717. Yen intervention watch live. US markets closed for Independence Day.

YEN INTERVENTION WATCH LIVE: FM Katayama issued fresh verbal warning Friday after yen touched 40-year low near 162.8 Thursday. Holiday-thinned session = elevated volatility risk.

LEVEL

SESSION STORY

EUR/USD

~1.1443

Two-week high. Up ~0.6% on week. Dollar weakness dominates over softer Eurozone CPI (headline 2.8%, core 2.4%).

GBP/USD

~1.3365

Best week in ~3 months (+1.2%). Bailey's Sintra remarks did little to slow the advance. Pure dollar-weakness story.

Gold XAU

~$4,185-$4,190

Extending advance. +1.3% on session. Dollar slide + reduced hike odds. WGC structural floor intact.

Copper

~$6.18/lb

+1.1-1.3% on session. Softer dollar + Goldman Sachs constructive demand commentary (EV, renewables, AI).

DAX 40

~25,747

Fresh all-time high. +0.65-0.9% on session. Siemens biggest boost (Kepler Cheuvreux upgrade). Defence names add.

STOXX 600

~651.5

Own record high. Best weekly rise since mid-May. Defence stocks +0.8% on Russia's deadliest Ukraine strike this year.

Ethereum ETH

~$1,717

+7%. Reclaims $1,700 handle. Sharp reversal after weeks of underperformance vs BTC.

Litecoin LTC

~$42.26

+~2%. Riding broader risk-on wave.

Natural Gas

~$3.25

Testing Fibonacci resistance inside descending channel. $3.245-$3.285 key band. Neutral-to-bearish structure.

Germany 20Y Bund

~3.30%

Easing from near two-week high as US Treasury yields pull back on reduced Fed-hike expectations.

Thursday's 57,000 NFP miss against a 115,000 consensus, combined with downward revisions to April and May payrolls, has done what five straight Nasdaq losing sessions and four straight gold weekly declines could not: it has cleanly broken the dollar's grip on European markets. The DXY has slipped to around 100.8, on track...

June NFP: 57,000 vs 115,000 consensus. Unemployment 4.2% (expected 4.3%). Fed September hike odds: 45-53%, from 65-67%. Dow Jones record close 52,900.07, +594.83 pts (+1.14%). Nasdaq -0.8%. S&P flat. US markets closed Friday for Independence Day. Yen at 40-year low 161.35. Kospi +6% intraday, triggers 'sidecar' halt.

57,000  June NFP  vs 115,000 consensus -- roughly half the forecast -- unemployment 4.2% vs 4.3% expected

52,900.07  Dow Jones close  +594.83 pts (+1.14%) -- fresh record high Thursday

45-53%  Sept hike odds  down from 65-67% before the payrolls report (CME FedWatch)

Thursday's NFP printed 57,000 against a 115,000 consensus -- roughly half of what the market expected. The unemployment rate came in at 4.2% against a 4.3% forecast, providing a modest offset that the market read as labour-market cooling rather than genuine downturn. Fed funds futures now imply a September hike probability of 45 to 53%, sharply down from 65 to 67% before the report. The combination produced a Dow Jones record close at 52,900.07, up 594.83 points, a 1.14% gain. The Nasdaq fell 0.8% and the S&P 500 finished essentially flat, underscoring a rotation away from megacap technology names even as the broader risk-on tone carried into Asia.

Friday's Asian session is the post-payrolls reaction carrying through a full trading day with US markets completely absent. South Korea's Kospi is the standout: reversing an early dip to surge more than 6% intraday and triggering a trading 'sidecar' halt as SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both rallied more than 8% on renewed AI-chip demand optimism. This is a sharp turnaround after the index's roughly 8% slump earlier in the week. The USD/JPY intervention story is simultaneously live: the pair is holding above 161.00 but capped below 161.50, within a 161.00-161.74 day range, as Japan's Finance Minister Katayama repeats...

Introduction: A Rebound After the Drop

Friday. European markets are opening after a turbulent Thursday, when German two-year bonds experienced a powerful rally that pushed their yields down to the lowest levels since mid-April. 2.51% — this is what short-term eurozone bonds now offer, and this figure symbolizes not just a technical rebound, but a deep reassessment of expectations about where the global economy is heading.

What happened over these few days? Markets went through a real information storm that completely washed away previous forecasts. U.S. employment data, which came in significantly weaker than expected, became the trigger that forced investors to reconsider their bets on further Fed rate hikes. Then came European inflation figures, which were also below forecasts, along with geopolitical news from Qatar, where the United States and Iran continue peace talks.

All of this together created a new narrative — a narrative suggesting that inflation risks are retreating and central banks may be able to adopt a softer stance. German two-year bonds, which have always been the most sensitive indicator of expectations regarding ECB rates, reacted faster than anything else. Their yield first collapsed, and then, on Friday, corrected slightly upward — but this is only a technical correction after an excessively sharp move.

Nevertheless, even taking this small increase into account, yields remain significantly below the levels seen at the beginning of the week. This indicates that markets are taking seriously a scenario in which central banks pause their tightening cycle and may even begin considering rate cuts. But is everything really that simple? Let’s take a closer look.

U.S. Labor Market Data: An Unexpected Cold Shower

The Numbers That Changed Expectations

The main event of the week, which changed the balance of power in the markets, was the U.S. employment data for June. Economists...

DXY above 100 for first time since May 2025. USD/CAD 1.4193 -- best since late January. USD/CHF 0.8099. Gold $4,089 after fourth consecutive weekly decline, briefly sub-$4,000. Nasdaq 100 -4.60% on five-day losing streak from June 3 record near 30,762. US 10Y 4.37% (-7bps). BTC $60,345.50 -- lowest since late 2024. ADA $0.146 multi-year lows. US markets closed Friday.

LEVEL

HEADING INTO THE WEEK

USD/CAD

1.4193

Five-month high (best since late Jan). Dollar + deteriorating Canadian growth + gold pullback. ISM Tue + NFP Thu are the gates.

USD/CHF

0.8099

DXY above 100 first time since May 2025. CHF safe-haven demand outweighed by greenback rally.

Gold XAU

$4,089

Fourth consecutive weekly decline. Briefly sub-$4,000 before Friday PCE bounce reclaimed $4K. $3,800-$3,900 structural floor.

Wheat CBOT

588.45c

Eased from 3-week high. Hormuz freight premium easing + improving US harvest + Black Sea conditions.

Nasdaq 100

29,045

-4.60%. Five-day losing streak from June 3 record near 30,762. Chip rout + delayed AI IPO headlines drove the fall.

US 10Y Yield

4.37%

-7bps. Seven-week low. In-line PCE trimmed (not eliminated) multiple-hike bets. Core PCE held at 3.4%.

Bitcoin BTC

$60,345.50

Lowest since late 2024. Spot ETF outflows accelerated. Capital rotating to defensive equity + AI infrastructure.

Cardano ADA

$0.146

Multi-year lows. Amplified BTC breakdown on smaller cap + thinner institutional liquidity.

A hawkish-priced dollar and a five-day Nasdaq losing streak. Does ISM Manufacturing on Tuesday deliver the reprieve, or does a holiday-shortened week with Friday closure deliver thinner liquidity and sharper moves?

USD/CAD at 1.4193: The Most Consequential North American Pair

USD/CAD at 1.4193 is the most consequential North American pair for the week. The loonie's slide to a five-month high in USD/CAD terms -- its best level since late January -- reflects a combination of broad-based dollar strength and a...

Holiday-shortened US week. EUR/USD 1.1383 -- strongest since late 2024. Silver $59.14. FTSE 100 at record 10,473. WTI $70.12. EU 10Y 2.68% stable. ETH $1,581 in Extreme Fear. LTC $42.48. Eurozone CPI Tuesday, ISM Manufacturing Tuesday, Warsh at Sintra Tuesday, ADP Wednesday, NFP Thursday.

LEVEL

HEADING INTO THE WEEK

EUR/USD

1.1383

Strongest since late 2024. Dollar softness, not ECB hawkishness, drove the move. Eurozone CPI Tuesday + Warsh Sintra = the twin gates.

GBP/USD

1.3200

Psychological pivot. Sterling benefited from dollar weakness + resilient UK services. GDP revision this week.

Silver XAG

$59.14

Multi-year high. Weaker dollar + green-energy demand signals. $59 is the intraweek pivot for continuation or reversal.

Crude Oil WTI

$70.12

OPEC+ supply-increase signals + soft Chinese demand. $70 structurally critical; break below opens mid-$60s.

FTSE 100

10,473

Record territory. Financials and consumer staples led. Energy lagged on crude weakness.

EU 10Y Yield

2.68%

Stable. Dollar weakness + soft US data offset French political noise. Eurozone CPI Tuesday is the next catalyst.

Ethereum ETH

$1,580.86

Extreme Fear. Tracking crypto-specific fear cycle, not macro risk-on. $1,500 demand shelf is structural anchor.

Litecoin LTC

$42.33

Broke below $45 support. Halving narrative is primary fundamental floor. $40 shelf = next accumulation zone.

EUR/USD at 1.1383: Dollar Weakness, Not ECB Strength

EUR/USD at 1.1383 is the most consequential European pair for the week, and the distinction between what drove it here and what can sustain it is analytically important. The pair's advance through 1.13 to its strongest level since late 2024 was driven by broad dollar softness -- soft US data reducing Fed tightening urgency -- not ECB hawkishness. That distinction matters because it creates a different set of conditions for how the pair behaves this week.

The dollar softness that drove EUR/USD to 1.1383 was itself a function...

USD/JPY 161.53 pressing 52-week high of 161.95. China NBS and Caixin PMIs Monday. RBA rate decision Wednesday. BoJ Tankan Survey Tuesday. Solana post-unlock stabilising at $70.42. DOGE broke below the $0.085 demand zone at $0.074. Fear & Greed at 12 -- Extreme Fear.

LEVEL

HEADING INTO THE WEEK

USD/JPY

161.53

13-month high, pressing 52-week high 161.95. Intervention zone active. Tokyo CPI 1.7% adds BoJ hike urgency.

AUD/USD

0.6904

Weighed by dollar strength and soft China demand. RBA decision Wednesday is the directional gate.

Copper (HG)

$6.18

Eased on hawkish-Fed dollar bid. Renewables and electronics demand steady. Traditional Chinese demand soft.

Natural Gas

$3.28

+5.67% on the month. Above-average temperatures through early July. Record LNG feedgas at Golden Pass.

Hang Seng

22,946

Strong Sell technical reading. Near bottom of 22,485-28,056 yearly range. 52-week low risk active.

Nikkei 225

~69,683

Weak yen flattering large-cap exporters. Gains thin as intervention chatter builds.

Solana (SOL)

$70.42

Stabilising near $70 after June 624,666-token unlock. Fear & Greed at 12 (Extreme Fear). $66 support.

Dogecoin (DOGE)

$0.074

Broke below $0.085 demand zone. -14.35%. Steadier short-term MA structure the only technical support.

USD/JPY at 161.53: The Single Most Important Pair of the Week

USD/JPY at 161.53 is the single most important pair for the Asian session this week. The pair's grind to a fresh 13-month high is driven almost entirely by the dollar side: the Fed's hawkish hold under Chair Warsh, with nine of nineteen policymakers projecting at least one additional 2026 hike, has kept the DXY near a 13-month high and the US-Japan rate gap at 250 to 275 basis points. The BoJ hiked to 1.00% on June 19 -- the first time at that level since 1995 -- and Tokyo's June CPI accelerated to 1.7% headline and 1.6% core, giving the BoJ an...

A dollar that will not relent. A sterling that cannot defend. A crude market on track for a third straight decline. And Frankfurt finding a rare bright spot in Bayer's courtroom victory. The defining variable is the same as it has been all week: the Fed-ECB rate gap, and whether 3.4% US Core PCE has permanently pushed the first Fed cut off the table.

Friday's European open inherits a complex macro backdrop from the Asian session. The US dollar index remains pinned near a 13-month high after Thursday's hot Core PCE print of 3.4% year-on-year locked in Fed higher-for-longer expectations. That print, combined with the Q1 GDP revision to 2.1%, has reduced Fed September cut probability to near zero and raised September hike probability to approximately 63%. Against that dollar backdrop, EUR/USD has drifted to 1.1376 -- near a seven-month low -- even as ECB hike probability for September sits at roughly 50% and should be providing structural EUR support. The Fed is simply winning the narrative battle.

The session's domestic European catalyst is negative: the UK composite PMI printed 49.4 in June, a 14-month low below the 50 expansion threshold. Combined with Prime Minister Starmer's resignation and the political uncertainty of the Burnham succession, sterling has no support mechanism today. GBP/USD at 1.3200 is a seven-month low. EUR/GBP has been stable, which tells you the market is selling GBP specifically rather than buying EUR -- the political discount is doing real currency damage that a rate story alone would not produce.

EUR/USD at 1.1376: The ECB Hike That Cannot Beat the Dollar

EUR/USD at 1.1376 should, in a purely rate-differential framework, be meaningfully higher. The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.25% on June 11 -- the first hike since 2023 -- and September hike probability is now priced...