Oil markets

Thursday’s Asian trading session brought a cautious but steady revival to oil markets. July WTI crude futures rose to $99.19 per barrel, gaining a modest 0.19%. In ordinary times, such a move would barely make headlines. But now, when every cent of price movement translates into billions of dollars in budget fluctuations for entire nations, even this small green candle on the chart tells a much larger story. It is the story of oil trying to find a bottom after the collapse triggered by hopes for peace — and of that bottom potentially settling far higher than consumers from Tokyo to London would like.

The technical picture painted by WTI quotes resembles a boxing match in which both opponents are exhausted, yet neither is willing to give ground. The support level at $96.97 marks the line below which the market refuses to let sellers pass. Every time prices approach this level, buyers step in, as though an invisible hand is catching the market before it falls further. Resistance at $105.21 serves the opposite role — a ceiling that has crushed every rally attempt over recent weeks.

This range between $97 and $105 is no accident. It contains all the conflicting information the market is digesting right now. On one hand, hopes for peace with Iran — repeatedly promoted throughout the week by Donald Trump — are pushing prices lower. If the conflict truly is in its “final stage,” as the U.S. president claims, then sooner or later the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, supplies will normalize, and oil prices will return to pre-crisis levels. On the other hand, reality stubbornly resists optimism. The strait remains largely blocked, tankers are forced to seek alternative routes or wait for passage, insurance premiums for shipping...