US Markets Weekly  |  13–17 July 2026

Nasdaq 100 29,823.90 (near record highs). USD/CAD 1.4155. USD/CHF 0.8085. Gold $4,111.61 (−2.3% wk). Nat Gas $2.94 (−6.1%). US 10Y 4.56% (+11bps). BTC $64,182 (+4.1%). BNB $576.44. Key events: US CPI Tue 14 Jul · JPM/C/WFC + GS/BAC/MS earnings Tue–Thu · Fed Chair Warsh testimony Thu 16 Jul · Retail Sales + jobless claims Thu.

HIGHEST CONVICTION: Buy Nasdaq 100 on confirmed dips toward 29,200, target 30,700. Q2 bank earnings Tue–Thu are the broadening test. AI-infrastructure uptrend intact. CPI Tuesday is the gate.

Last Week at a Glance · 6–10 July 2026

Nasdaq 100  29,823.90 (+1.6% wk)  near record highs — SK Hynix $26.5B debut + Nvidia + Meta drove AI-capex narrative

BTC  $64,182 (+4.1% wk)  V-shaped recovery from mid-week $57,950 Iran dip — ETF inflows resumed after 10-day outflow streak

US 10Y  4.56% (+11bps)  7-week high — US-Iran strikes fired oil, repriced Fed hike odds to ~64% by year-end

Gold  $4,111.61 (−2.3% wk)  Fed hike bets + dollar strength outweighed haven bid — set for weekly loss despite active conflict

Nat Gas  $2.94 (−6.1% wk)  6-week low — 61 Bcf storage build + Freeport LNG maintenance beginning

USD/CAD  1.4155 (−0.2% wk)  loonie firmed modestly as Brent’s Iran rally offset broad dollar strength

USD/CHF  0.8085 (−0.4% wk)  franc clawed back from 1-year low ~0.8123 on Middle East haven demand

BNB  $576.44 (+2.4% wk)  tracked BTC rebound + new Layer-1 chain announced for HFT and AI-agent use cases

The week of 6–10 July was defined by a fresh US-Iran military exchange that briefly rattled every asset class before markets largely looked through it by Friday. Oil’s Iran-driven spike cut two ways: it lifted Fed rate-hike odds to roughly 64% by year-end, firming the dollar and dragging gold sharply lower, even as the conflict itself would normally support havens. The Nasdaq 100 shrugged off the geopolitical noise entirely, closing within reach of its record high as SK Hynix’s $26.5 billion US listing and continued AI-capex enthusiasm around Nvidia and Meta dominated the narrative. The 10-year yield spiked to a seven-week high above 4.58% on the oil-driven inflation scare before easing to 4.56% as jobless claims pointed to continued labour-market resilience. Natural gas was the week’s standout loser, sliding more than 6% on ample storage and looming Freeport LNG maintenance. Bitcoin’s slide toward $57,950 on the Iran headlines reversed into a strong rally back above $64,000 as ETF flows turned positive for the first time in ten days, with BNB and the broader altcoin complex following BTC’s lead.

Three Forces That Drive the Week

Force 1 — Q2 Bank Earnings Season Opens Alongside US CPI, Testing the Nasdaq’s Run at Record Highs

The Nasdaq 100 at 29,823.90 enters the week within reach of its all-time high, driven almost entirely by AI-infrastructure enthusiasm around Nvidia and Meta. This week broadens the test: JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo report Tuesday alongside the CPI print. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley follow later in the week. Strong results and guidance from the banking sector would confirm that the rally has support beyond a handful of mega-cap names. A disappointing round could expose how narrow the current advance has been. The Nasdaq 100’s structural uptrend remains intact, but CSFX’s framework treats this week’s earnings as a genuine broadening test — buy confirmed dips rather than chasing strength into Thursday’s Fed testimony.

Force 2 — Fed Chair Warsh’s Testimony Collides With an Iran-Driven Rate-Hike Repricing

The US 10-year yield at 4.56% sits near a seven-week high after markets pushed the odds of at least one Fed rate hike by year-end to roughly 64%, a repricing driven almost entirely by the Iran-conflict oil spike rather than underlying disinflation trends reversing. Tuesday’s US CPI print (consensus +0.3% MoM) is the first scheduled test of whether that hawkish repricing is justified by the data. Thursday’s testimony from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — who recently announced five internal task forces reviewing the Fed’s policy approach — is this week’s clearest read on whether that repricing has further to run. A hawkish tone extends both the dollar’s firmness and the yield’s climb. A more measured tone could unwind some of last week’s move.

The Fed’s hawkishness right now is almost entirely oil-shock-driven rather than demand-driven. The CPI print Tuesday will tell us whether the underlying inflation data justifies what markets are pricing, or whether the Iran premium in rate expectations is borrowed time.

Force 3 — Bitcoin’s ETF-Flow Recovery Meets a Stalled CLARITY Act

Bitcoin at $64,182 staged a sharp recovery from last week’s Iran-driven dip toward $57,950, with spot ETF inflows turning positive after June’s record monthly outflow of $4.51 billion. BNB at $576.44 has tracked that recovery closely, aided by a newly announced next-generation Layer-1 chain aimed at high-frequency trading and AI-agent applications. The structural overhang for both remains regulatory: the Senate left for recess without a floor vote on the CLARITY Act before its symbolic July 4 deadline, leaving digital assets without the federal framework institutional desks have been waiting for. CSFX’s framework: ETF-flow recovery is a genuine near-term constructive signal, but conservative sizing is warranted until CLARITY Act progress resumes.

Eight Trades for the Week

Nasdaq 100 and gold are the two highest-conviction setups. All others sized around the CPI + Warsh testimony binary risk.

[01] Nasdaq 100  BUY DIPS 29,200

Near record highs. AI-capex uptrend: Nvidia + Meta + SK Hynix $26.5B listing. Q2 bank earnings Tue-Thu = broadening test. Buy confirmed dip, not pre-CPI/earnings strength.

Entry: 29,200  |  Stop: 28,650  |  Target: 30,700

[02] Gold XAU  BUY DIPS $3,975

−2.3% last week. Fed hike bets + dollar outweighed haven bid = Fed-driven wobble not structural top. Central bank accumulation globally = structural floor. US CPI Tue is the key test.

Entry: $3,975  |  Stop: $3,875  |  Target: $4,180

[03] USD/CAD  SELL RALLIES 1.4225

Loonie firmed on Brent’s Iran rally even as dollar strengthened. CPI Tue is the swing factor: hot = dollar extends, sell CAD on any rally. Oil-loonie link still active.

Entry: 1.4225  |  Stop: 1.4310  |  Target: 1.4020

[04] USD/CHF  SELL RALLIES 0.8135

Franc rebounded from 1-year low 0.8123 on Middle East haven demand. SNB 0% rate, passive vs franc strength. Still ~4.6% weaker than pre-conflict. Haven demand + passive SNB = favour further franc recovery.

Entry: 0.8135  |  Stop: 0.8210  |  Target: 0.7995

[05] Natural Gas HH  SELL RALLIES $3.10

−6.1% last week. 61 Bcf build + Freeport LNG maintenance (began Jul 10, through late Aug) = supply glut persists. EIA Thursday = key. Build = extend downside. Oversold = disciplined entries only.

Entry: $3.10  |  Stop: $3.30  |  Target: $2.75

[06] US 10Y Yield  FADE RALLIES (LONG YIELD)

+11bps last week to 7-week high. Fed hike odds ~64% year-end. Warsh testimony Thu = key confirmation catalyst. CPI hot = yield extends toward 4.75%. Stop = 4.38% (repricing fades).

Entry: 4.50% (sell bond)  |  Stop: 4.38% yield  |  Target: 4.75% yield

[07] Bitcoin BTC  BUY DIPS $61,500

V-shaped recovery from $57,950. ETF inflows returned after June’s record $4.51B outflow. CLARITY Act stalled (Senate recess, no floor vote before Jul 4 deadline). Conservative size until CLARITY Act resumes.

Entry: $61,500  |  Stop: $58,800  |  Target: $68,000

[08] BNB  BUY DIPS $555

Tracking BTC +2.4% last week. New next-gen Layer-1 chain for HFT + AI-agents = idiosyncratic catalyst on top of BTC recovery. Conservative size given CLARITY Act overhang.

Entry: $555  |  Stop: $530  |  Target: $615

Economic Calendar — 13–17 July 2026 (ET)

Mon 13 All day — Regional bank pre-announcements / Q2 earnings season opens: Sets the tone ahead of Tuesday’s major bank reports. Any early guidance surprises shift positioning into CPI + earnings cluster.

Tue 14 08:30 — US CPI June (+0.3% MoM consensus): THE week’s most important release. Hot = dollar firms, yields extend, gold pressured, equities cautious. Soft = dollar softness, risk-on extends.

Tue 14 Pre-market — JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo Q2 earnings: First broad read on corporate profitability beyond mega-cap AI. Guidance on loan growth and credit quality = key.

Wed 15 08:30 — US Producer Price Index June: Secondary inflation gauge after CPI. Surprise = adds to or subtracts from dollar and yield narrative.

Wed 15 Pre-market — Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley Q2: Trading-desk revenue in focus given last week’s Iran-driven market swings.

Wed 15 14:00 — Federal Reserve Beige Book: Qualitative economic read before Warsh testimony. Shift in inflation or labour-market tone = closely parsed.

Thu 16 08:30 — US Retail Sales June + Initial Jobless Claims: Consumer resilience gauge heading into Warsh testimony. Strong = reinforces Fed vigilance on inflation.

Thu 16 10:00 — Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Congressional Testimony: THE week’s most important central-bank event. Hawkish = dollar firms, yields extend. Measured = unwinds some of last week’s hawkish repricing.

Thu 16 10:30 — EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report: Build = extends supply glut and downside pressure. Smaller build = short-covering bounce possible.

Thu 16 After market — Netflix Q2 earnings: Read on consumer discretionary + broader tech-earnings picture.

Fri 17 08:30 — US Housing Starts + Building Permits June: How higher yields are feeding through to rate-sensitive sectors.

Fri 17 10:00 — University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim): Inflation expectations component closely watched ahead of weekend Iran headline risk.

Fri 17 All day — Iran conflict headline risk + weekend positioning: Friday position-squaring around unresolved geopolitical risk. Fresh escalation = gold, dollar, crude all move sharply into close.

CSFX View — Week of 13 July 2026

The US session this week is shaped by a genuine collision of monetary, corporate, and geopolitical forces. Nasdaq 100 at 29,823.90 enters near record highs but faces its broadest scheduled test Tuesday through Thursday, when Q2 bank earnings from JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley land alongside Tuesday’s US CPI print. USD/CAD at 1.4155 and USD/CHF at 0.8085 remain caught between genuine Fed hawkishness and Iran-driven haven flows. The US 10-year yield at 4.56% heads into Thursday’s Warsh testimony with markets pricing ~64% probability of a year-end Fed hike. Gold at $4,111.61 and natural gas at $2.94 each trade on distinct supply-and-policy crosscurrents. Bitcoin at $64,182 and BNB at $576.44 head into the week on recovering ETF flows but against a still-stalled CLARITY Act.

The Fed’s hawkish repricing, the Nasdaq’s record-high chase, Q2 bank earnings, and Bitcoin’s ETF-flow recovery are all happening in the same week. Tuesday’s CPI print is the gate through which all four pass.

CSFX’s highest-conviction setups: buy Nasdaq 100 on confirmed dips toward 29,200 ahead of Q2 bank earnings; buy gold dips toward $3,975 now that the pullback looks Fed-driven rather than structural. USD/CAD is a sell on rallies to 1.4225 contingent on CPI; USD/CHF is a sell on rallies to 0.8135 given haven demand and a passive SNB; natural gas is a sell on rallies to $3.10 given the Freeport maintenance window and widening storage surplus; the US 10-year is a fade-the-rally (long yield) play toward 4.50% entry; Bitcoin is $61,500 accumulation on the ETF-flow recovery; and BNB is a conservatively sized $555 accumulation trade tracking Bitcoin’s direction. CSFX will issue intra-week alerts if Tuesday’s CPI delivers a material surprise, if Middle East tensions escalate further, if Q2 bank earnings broadly beat or miss expectations, or if Thursday’s Warsh testimony shifts rate-hike odds meaningfully.

Read Full Report: https://www.capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/week-ahead-fed-chair-warsh-testimony/