XAG/USD

Monday: The Precious Metal Returns to the Spotlight

XAUUSD ... Gold began the new trading week with solid gains. Prices of the precious metal climbed back above the psychologically important level of $4,000 per ounce, rising by 0.4% to $4,024.72. Gold futures performed even more strongly, gaining 0.5% to reach $4,029.87.

The recovery came after gold closed 0.2% lower on the previous Friday. The market has once again shifted its attention to geopolitical risks, which remain the main driving force behind demand for safe-haven assets. The conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, prompting investors to seek protection in gold.

Silver also advanced, with XAGUSD ... rising by 0.9% to $56.93 per ounce. Platinum, however, declined by 0.2% to $1,594.30. This mixed performance suggests that investors are choosing gold as the most reliable safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainty.

The Middle East: Escalation and Signs of Diplomacy

The situation in the Middle East remains tense. The United States continues to carry out strikes on Iranian targets, while President Donald Trump warned Tehran that it would “pay” for the deaths of three American service members in recent days. This tough statement leaves little doubt that Washington has no intention of backing down.

Regional uncertainty has been intensified by a threat from Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi movement to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia. This poses a serious risk to shipping in the Red Sea, one of the world’s key routes for energy supplies. In response, the Saudi-led military coalition has strengthened measures to protect maritime traffic.

However, there are also signs of hope for a diplomatic resolution. Iran said that mediators were discussing proposals aimed at de-escalating the conflict. Reuters reported on a proposed 10-day suspension of strikes, easing concerns about an immediate escalation. Markets breathed a sigh of relief, although only cautiously....

Introduction: A Breather After the Sell-Off

Tuesday brought long-awaited relief to gold investors. After plunging nearly 3% on Monday—the sharpest one-day decline in more than a month—the precious metal began to recover. XAU/USD rose by 0.54% to $4,022.87 per ounce, while gold futures gained 0.59% to reach $4,029.22. Silver and platinum also moved higher, rising by 0.63% and 0.42%, respectively.

However, this increase does not represent a confident recovery but rather a cautious pause. The market has entered a holding pattern ahead of two key events: the release of US inflation data and testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh before Congress. These events are likely to determine the direction of gold prices over the coming weeks.

Tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, while comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller have added fuel to the fire by strengthening expectations of a possible interest rate hike. In this article, we will examine all the factors currently affecting gold and attempt to determine where the precious metal may move in the coming days.

The Middle East Conflict: A Double Blow to Gold

Escalation and Transit Fees

President Trump announced the reinstatement of a blockade on Iranian shipping in the Persian Gulf and described Washington as the “Guardian of the Strait of Hormuz.” Moreover, he proposed introducing a 20% fee on cargo passing through this strategically important waterway.

The announcement represented a sharp escalation of US pressure on Tehran and raised doubts about the durability of the fragile ceasefire reached in June. Markets reacted immediately: oil prices continued to rise, while investors began reassessing their inflation expectations.

Inflation Risks

Rising energy prices are reviving concerns that higher energy costs could fuel inflation and complicate the Federal Reserve’s efforts to return price growth to its target level.

For gold, this creates...