US500

Friday, 5 June 2026  ·  New York Open  ·  Capital Street FX Research Desk

NFP +172K May  ·  Unemployment 4.3%  ·  US 10Y 4.52%  ·  Fed Hike Probability 85%

Fed Funds 5.25%  ·  CPI Apr 3.4%  ·  Next FOMC Jun 17–18  

S&P 500 at 7,550.5 (+0.59%). Nasdaq Composite at 39,432 (+0.61%). Dow Jones at 51,448 (+0.99%). USD/CAD at 1.3913 (+0.27%). USD/CHF at 0.7945 (+0.66%). US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.52% (+0.04%). WTI Crude at $91.47 (-3.32%). Gold XAU/USD at $4,348.10 (-2.58%). Wheat CBOT July at 608.75¢/bu (-0.29%). Bitcoin at $60,912.5 (-1.83%). Cardano ADA at $0.1604 (-2.10%). Intel at $107.31 (-4.20%). VIX at 16.52.

Friday's New York session opened into a market already shaken by three simultaneous stress tests: a stronger-than-expected NFP print, a sector-crushing selloff in semiconductor stocks triggered by Broadcom's AI chip outlook, and a crypto market that has shed more than 14% across seven consecutive sessions. The Federal Reserve's rate path is the thread binding them all — and today's jobs data just made the June 17-18 FOMC meeting materially more hawkish in character.

May's non-farm payroll report delivered 172,000 new jobs, firmly beating the consensus estimate of 130,000 and following an upward revision of April to 214,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%. Gains were led by leisure and hospitality, local government, and healthcare. Markets now price an 85% probability of at least one 25 basis-point rate hike before year-end, up from 60% a week ago. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.52% immediately post-release. The NFP result effectively forecloses any near-term Fed cut — the first rate reduction is now pushed to early 2027 in the base case.

The technology sector is experiencing its most severe single-session decline...