Gold Under Pressure: Why XAU/USD Is Falling and What’s Next
On the morning of April 28, 2026, Forex investors are witnessing another round of decline in gold prices (XAU/USD). The precious metal, which just recently was storming the psychological $5,000 per ounce mark amid an acute geopolitical crisis, has now retreated below $4,650, hitting two-week lows. Traders’ attention is focused on several powerful factors, ranging from the nuclear standoff in the Strait of Hormuz to the verdict from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Fundamental Analysis: Geopolitics and Central BanksThe main driver of gold's current dynamics is the unstable situation surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations. Yesterday, reports emerged that Tehran proposed to Washington that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz be resumed, but attached a counter-condition — to postpone the resolution of the nuclear issue until the end of hostilities. Expectations of de-escalation triggered a temporary rise in risk appetite and weakened demand for safe-haven assets. However, by Tuesday morning, it became clear: U.S. President Donald Trump is unhappy with the Iranian initiative, and direct dialogue in Pakistan has collapsed.
While politicians exchange ultimatums, the U.S. dollar is strengthening its role as the primary safe haven, putting pressure on gold, which is denominated in it. Additional nervousness stems from central bank meetings: the Bank of Japan today and the Federal Reserve on Wednesday will announce their monetary policy decisions. The U.S. regulator is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged, but the tone of the statements from outgoing Chairman Jerome Powell will be crucial for the medium-term trend. Markets are also pricing in a 35% probability of at least one monetary policy easing in the U.S. by the end of the year, which theoretically limits the dollar’s upside potential and supports gold.
The factor of oil prices should not be dismissed. Escalation in the Middle East has pushed the price of a...