Commodities

The global bond selloff, which two weeks ago looked like a chaotic stampede for the exits, has eased somewhat in recent days. But that does not mean the fire has been extinguished. Rather, the flames have spread elsewhere, and now the fiercest blaze is raging in a market that for decades was considered a bastion of stability. Japanese government bonds are facing a moment of truth. Yields on ten-year bonds have surged to levels unseen since September 1996 — an era when Bill Clinton was president of the United States and the word “smartphone” did not yet exist. Thirty-year bond yields have reached an all-time record high. And this is happening not just anywhere, but in Japan — a country that spent decades battling deflation and whose bonds seemed like a permanent refuge of calm. Now that refuge is beginning to crack.

The Reflation Trade: How a Longstanding Bet Ran Out of Steam

In recent years, Japan’s debt market has lived in a reality unlike that of other developed nations. While the Federal Reserve, the ECB, and the Bank of England fought inflation by raising interest rates, the Bank of Japan stubbornly maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy. This gave rise to the so-called “reflation trade” — investors betting that Japan would finally escape its deflationary spiral, inflation would begin to rise, and the central bank would eventually be forced to normalize policy. It was a profitable trade: Japanese bonds fell in price, yields crept higher, and traders made money.

But now, as Thomas Mathews of Capital Economics warns, that trade is nearing a critical point. “Most of the recent rise in yields has been benign,” he wrote in a recent note. In other words, the market had gradually priced in normalization, and that was considered a healthy process. But now,...

Wednesday’s Asian trading session brought something the oil market has rarely felt in recent weeks — near stillness. July WTI crude futures slipped only marginally, settling at $104.05 per barrel. A decline of four hundredths of a percent is hardly a pullback; it is statistical noise, the faint breathing of a market trying to recover after a marathon. Yet it is precisely during these moments of deceptive calm, when prices hover between support at $95.12 and resistance at $105.21, that the real drama unfolds. Behind this sideways movement lies a battle of fears, expectations, and calculations that will determine where oil heads next — upward toward new highs, or downward, offering relief to the exhausted global economy.

The Thin Line Between Support and Resistance

To understand what is happening in oil right now, one must look beyond fractions of a percentage point and focus on the levels trapping the price. Support at $95.12 is the threshold below which the market refuses to let gravity take over. Whenever oil approached this level in previous sessions, buyers immediately stepped in. This suggests that the fundamental backdrop — supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and shrinking inventories — remains so strong that even aggressive sellers hesitate to assault this fortress.

On the other side, resistance at $105.21 acts like an invisible ceiling. Every time prices near this boundary, automated sell orders trigger, profit-taking intensifies, and perhaps traders’ secret hopes emerge that the madness may soon end.

This oscillation between two poles perfectly illustrates the market’s schizophrenia. On one hand, everyone sees the physical shortage of crude. Tankers are avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, insurance premiums have soared, and alternative routes simply cannot compensate for the loss of Iranian and broader Middle Eastern supply. On the other hand, diplomatic efforts remain on the horizon, and every...

At first glance, Asian currency markets looked almost sleepy on Wednesday. Most pairs drifted within narrow ranges, traders seemed to hit pause, and price action resembled the heartbeat monitor of a patient under heavy sedation. But this silence is deceptive. Beneath the surface calm of sideways trading lies enormous tension ready to erupt at any moment. When three forces converge at once — a war disrupting one-fifth of global oil supplies, renewed fears of Federal Reserve rate hikes, and deepening geopolitical fractures among major powers — markets do not calm down; they become paralyzed, trying to calculate where the first blow will come from.

The Heavyweight Dollar and the Ghost of Tightening

The dollar index hovering near six-week highs is the perfect barometer of global anxiety. Whenever the world starts shaking, money inevitably rushes into the dollar, and the current situation is no exception. But what makes this moment unique is that the dollar is rising not only as a safe haven, but also as a currency that could become even more profitable. Markets have once again started talking about something they tried to forget over recent months — another Fed rate hike.

This narrative did not emerge out of nowhere. Remarks by Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson, made almost casually on Tuesday evening, became the detonator. When a senior Fed official says it is reasonable for markets to speculate about possible rate increases, it is not just rhetoric — it is a signal. Central bankers rarely speak carelessly. Behind such comments lies growing concern within the Fed over energy-driven inflation, which has begun accelerating again after the conflict with Iran disrupted supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

Inflation caused by a supply shock is the most unpleasant type of inflation for central banks. It cannot be fought...

Trading gold (XAU/USD) on the Forex market has always been considered the "major league" of trading. In 2026, this asset has not lost its status as the ultimate safe-haven mechanism; however, the nature of its movements has become even more dependent on a complex web of geopolitics and the new monetary reality.

Today, May 19, 2026, the gold market is in a phase of sharp correction following a tumultuous rally in the first quarter. Let’s break down the forces driving the quotes of the "sunny metal" right now.

Fundamental Background: Oil, the Dollar, and the Shadow of Conflict

The fundamental picture today is defined by a paradoxical link between energy resources and US monetary policy.

1. The Oil and Inflation Factor

The situation surrounding Iran and potential sanctions remains the main driver. High oil prices (holding around $96–$100 per barrel) are creating sticky inflationary pressure in the US. For gold, this is a double-edged sword: on one hand, gold is a hedge against inflation; on the other hand, high inflation forces the Fed to keep interest rates at a restrictive level (3.50–3.75%).

2. A Hawkish Fed and the Dollar Index (DXY)

At the moment, the market is reassessing expectations: instead of rate cuts, investors are beginning to price in a "high for longer" scenario. This supports US Treasury yields and makes non-yielding assets (like gold), which do not bear coupon income, less attractive. The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 97.80, exerting moderate pressure on gold.

Technical Analysis: The Battle for the $4500 Level

The technical picture for May 19 points to the dominance of bears in the short term. After gold lost about 3.7% of its value last week, the price has approached a psychologically vital milestone.

Key Levels for Today:

Support at $4500: This is the main bastion...

Tuesday began with a cautious but confident rise in the precious metals market. Spot gold gained one tenth of a percent and settled around $4,570 per ounce, while futures climbed three tenths of a percent to $4,574. At first glance, the move looked modest. But behind these numbers stood an event that changed the mood of the entire financial world the previous evening: Donald Trump announced a postponement of the planned strike on Iran and confirmed that negotiations were ongoing.

Markets, which for weeks had been pricing in the possibility of a major war in the Middle East, interpreted these remarks as the first real signal of de-escalation in a long time. The reaction was multifaceted: oil moved lower, bonds stopped falling, the dollar weakened, and gold — contrary to the usual logic linking its rise to heightened geopolitical fears — also moved higher. To understand this apparent paradox, it is necessary to look at the mechanics currently driving the precious metals market.

Oil Down, Gold Up: Breaking the Pattern

Normally, gold and oil move in the same direction when geopolitics is the main driver. War sends oil higher and gold higher. Peace pushes both lower. But Tuesday morning broke this familiar pattern. Oil prices fell sharply after Trump’s comments, while gold rose.

The explanation lies in the fact that gold is currently far more sensitive to the bond market than to geopolitical risk itself. Recent weeks have shown that the metal’s main enemy was not hope for peace, but rising yields. When investors sold bonds on fears that a war with Iran would fuel inflation and force central banks to tighten policy further, yields surged and gold declined. Now that dynamic is beginning to reverse.

Trump’s announcement that the strike was postponed and that serious negotiations were underway sparked...

Tuesday began with a confident rise in the oil market. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, July WTI crude oil futures climbed by one and a half percent, settling near $102.80 per barrel. This is not an explosive surge or a panic-driven rally, but rather a steady, methodical move higher that suggests bullish sentiment in the oil market has not disappeared. It merely paused briefly the day before and is now returning with renewed strength.

The session high moved above $103 — territory where oil has not traded since early May. Intraday support formed around $95, a level where buyers appear willing to enter the market without waiting for a deeper pullback. On the upside, resistance is located near $105, a key zone whose breakout could open the path to new highs.

But before examining why oil is rising today specifically, it is worth paying attention to one critically important detail: oil is gaining alongside the U.S. dollar. This is an unusual combination under normal market conditions and deserves separate analysis.

The Dollar and Oil: An Unusual Duo

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the American currency against a basket of six major peers, gained 0.12% and is trading near 98.99. Normally, a stronger dollar puts pressure on oil prices: when the U.S. currency appreciates, dollar-denominated commodities become more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing demand. This inverse relationship is a classic principle taught in introductory finance courses.

But today, that relationship is not working. Oil and the dollar are rising simultaneously, which says a great deal about the nature of the current move. When commodities rally despite a strengthening dollar, it means a powerful market-specific factor is outweighing the currency effect. And that factor is well known — geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran and ongoing supply concerns in...

Monday began with a sharp surge in oil prices. As soon as Asian markets opened, July futures for North Sea Brent crude jumped 1.3%, reaching $110.71 per barrel. For early morning trading, when liquidity is still relatively thin, this is a highly significant move. It indicates that a buildup of news over the weekend was bound to spill over into prices.

Traders arriving at their desks in Tokyo, Singapore, and Shanghai were greeted by a troubling picture on their terminals: oil was climbing again, the geopolitical fire in the Middle East showed no signs of cooling, and diplomatic efforts had yet to produce meaningful results. While they were sipping their morning coffee, algorithmic trading systems were already pricing in a new phase of escalation.

Drone Over Barakah: An Attack That Changes the Rules

The key trigger behind the morning spike was an event that at first glance might have seemed like a local incident, but in reality carries far-reaching implications. On Sunday, drones struck a facility near the Barakah nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates. The fire that broke out after the attack was contained, but the aftermath left a far deeper impact than the material damage itself.

Barakah is not just a power plant. It is the first and only operational nuclear power station in the Arab world, a symbol of the UAE’s technological ambitions, and a site under close scrutiny from international nuclear safety regulators. A drone strike near such a facility represents an entirely new level of escalation. This is no longer about tankers in the Persian Gulf or oil infrastructure. It is about the potential for a nuclear catastrophe in a densely populated region, and the market reacted accordingly — as a signal that the conflict has entered a far more dangerous phase.

According...

Gold ended the week deep in the red on Friday. It marked the fourth consecutive losing session — a stretch the precious metals market has not seen in quite some time. Spot prices slipped another 0.7% and hovered near $4,620 per ounce in early trading. Futures performed even worse, plunging 1.3% to around $4,624. Looking at the week as a whole, the picture is grim for the bulls: gold lost roughly 2% over five trading days.

For an asset traditionally viewed as a safe haven, this behavior looks unusual. But that very unusualness is the story. Gold is currently trapped between two grinding forces: a strengthening U.S. dollar on one side and shifting expectations around Federal Reserve interest rates on the other. As long as those forces continue turning, the metal keeps sliding lower despite the geopolitical fears that would normally send it soaring.

The Dollar Flexes Its Muscles

The U.S. Dollar Index gained another 0.3% during Asian trading on Friday, climbing to a two-week high. For the week, the greenback was on track to rise more than 1% — a sharp reversal after months of speculation that the dollar was losing its dominance amid budget concerns and political instability in the United States.

But economic data released throughout the week shattered those bearish narratives. One report after another exceeded analyst expectations. Producer prices in April posted their strongest annual increase in four years. Four years is a long time in economic terms — enough for supply chains, consumer behavior, and entire market structures to change dramatically. Consumer inflation also came in hotter than expected, while retail sales painted a picture of an American consumer who continues spending despite expensive energy and broad uncertainty.

Under different circumstances, this combination of data might have fueled a rally in equities and perhaps...

On Tuesday, before the market opens, trading platform eToro will release its first-quarter results. To an outside observer, this is just another earnings report — one of thousands passing through financial terminals every week. But for those closely following the company, this is a moment of truth.

The question is straightforward: can the platform deliver results above analysts’ expectations for a third consecutive quarter? eToro has already surprised the market twice in a row, and investors now want to understand whether this marks the beginning of a sustainable trend or merely a fortunate combination of circumstances driven by explosive commodity markets.

Analysts surveyed ahead of the release expect earnings of 67 cents per share. That is lower than the 71 cents reported in the fourth quarter, when the company beat consensus estimates by nearly three percent. The expected decline in profitability is itself an interesting signal. It suggests the market is trying to determine what a “normal” level looks like after an extraordinary period in which precious metals and energy markets pushed revenues sharply higher.

eToro’s diversified business model performed brilliantly last quarter, but the real question now is whether it can maintain momentum when external tailwinds are no longer blowing quite as strongly.

What the Analysts Are Saying

Fifteen analysts covering the stock remain unanimously optimistic: every single one rates it a buy. The consensus price target stands at $52.33. Compared with the current price of $38.38, that implies upside potential of 36 percent.

That is a substantial figure, and it says a great deal about how the professional investment community views the platform’s prospects.

One particularly interesting detail: earnings-per-share forecasts have increased by 1.76 percent over the past 60 days. In other words, analysts have gradually raised their expectations as new data came in. However, estimates have edged...

Hi everyone! Pip here.

I’ve been spending long nights under the hood of our portal, and today I have some exciting updates. My main goal right now is to turn this platform into a high-performance tool that matches international standards — not just in terms of features, but in how it feels to the touch.

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The portal is about to get a lot more informative. I’m currently working on integrating a Live Quote Stream directly into the site. Soon, you’ll be able to track price action in real-time without leaving the platform. Stay tuned!

🛢 What’s Next for Oil?

The charts are looking spicy.

The big question is: Where do we go from here?

Are we looking at a breakout towards higher levels due to supply constraints, or is the global economic slowdown going to push prices back into the "bear cave"?

What do you think about the oil price action for the coming month?

Are you long,...