European Session · Wednesday 24 June 2026 EUR/USD At Yearly Lows. UK Has No PM. The CAC 40 Is Up 3.19%. And Silver Just Hit a Six-Month Low

EUR/USD at 1.1348 — yearly lows. UK Composite PMI 49.4, a 14-month low. Starmer functionally gone; Burnham frontrunner with 200+ MPs, leadership contest opens 9 July. CAC 40 up 3.19% as France leads Europe. Silver at $61.23 — six-month lows. EU gas storage 45.56% vs 54.38% yr-ago. Ethereum at $1,668. PCE Thursday decides the dollar’s next leg.

Wednesday’s European session opens to a continent navigating simultaneous political and macro turbulence. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer formally resigned on Monday — the seventh British leader in a decade. Andy Burnham is the frontrunner with over 200 MP backers and the leadership contest opens on 9 July. EUR/GBP at 0.8605 tells you the market is not yet buying the Burnham relief story fully: GBP is holding but not surging, because a leader in waiting is not a leader with a fiscal mandate.

At the same moment, EUR/USD is at yearly lows of 1.1348 — driven by two simultaneous forces: the Fed’s hawkish hold removing dollar downside, and the ECB’s position becoming incrementally less hawkish as soft PMI data accumulates. Germany Composite PMI was 48.0 yesterday. The UK Composite PMI fell to 49.4 today — a 14-month low. Lagarde’s comment that inflation is ‘manageable’ is being read as a signal that the ECB is entering a hold debate. EUR/USD at yearly lows is the market’s verdict on that reading.

EUR/USD at yearly lows. The ECB hiked and is now seen as pivoting toward hold. The UK has no PM. Silver is at six-month lows. The CAC 40 is up 3.19%. Wednesday is the session where everything went in different directions simultaneously.

The UK Political Void: Why GBP Isn’t Falling Further

Starmer’s resignation creates a vacuum that would normally be materially GBP-negative. The currency has not collapsed for a specific reason: the succession path is clear. Burnham with 200+ MP backing is an orderly handover with a defined timeline. The market is pricing the transition, not the chaos. EUR/GBP at 0.8605 reflects sterling holding modest gains from the political clarity, but the gains are capped because Burnham has not yet articulated an economic programme.

The UK Composite PMI falling to 49.4 — a 14-month low — is the economic context. The UK economy is contracting slightly at the moment the government changes hands. Burnham’s first economic signals matter enormously for whether GBP can recover above 1.33 or drift further.

EUR/GBP: 0.8605 — steady; GBP holding on succession clarity, capped on policy vacuum

GBP/USD: Recovery potential capped until Burnham articulates economic programme

Watch: 9 July leadership contest; first Burnham fiscal signal is the sterling gate

CAC 40 Up 3.19%: The Divergence Story of the Session

The CAC 40 at 8,362.6 up 3.19% is the session’s most analytically interesting equity move — happening as the broader context is risk-off (Nasdaq -3.3% Tuesday, S&P -1.4%, Nikkei -3.55%). The CAC’s outperformance reflects two things: France has proportionally less exposure to AI chip names than Japan or South Korea, so the AI/chip rout’s first-order impact is smaller; and French luxury, industrial, and infrastructure names benefit from the Iran peace deal tailwinds through lower energy costs improving manufacturing margins.

The DAX at 24,129 up 1.43% is constrained by Germany PMI 48.0. The FTSE 100 at 10,437 is held back by the political void and PMI miss, supported by the Iran peace dividend. The CAC is the cleanest beneficiary.

CAC 40: 8,362.6 +3.19%; France outperformance — less AI chip exposure + Iran peace

DAX: 24,129 +1.43%; constrained by Germany PMI 48.0

FTSE 100: 10,437; political void + PMI headwinds vs Iran peace dividend

EUR/USD at 1.1348: Yearly Lows With Two Forces Converging

EUR/USD at 1.1348 is its lowest since January. Two forces simultaneously EUR-negative: dollar bid from hawkish Fed (DXY near multi-month highs), and Lagarde’s ‘manageable’ inflation signal being read as ECB entering a hold debate after the June 11 hike to 2.25%. EU 10-year yield compressing to 3.36% from Tuesday’s 3.489% confirms that reading.

For EUR/USD, the 1.1348 level is yearly-low support. Hold into Thursday’s soft PCE: bounce toward 1.1450. Hot PCE: EUR/USD below 1.1300 toward 1.1250 — lowest since late 2025.

EUR/USD: 1.1348 yearly lows; dual headwind: hawkish Fed + ECB hold debate

Entry Long: 1.1300-1.1320 — only if ECB confirms July hike AND soft PCE Thursday

Stop Loss: 1.1250 — below yearly low; hot PCE drives deeper extension

Take Profit: 1.1500 — ECB credibility recovery + dollar retreat

Silver at $61.23: The Six-Month Low and What Comes Next

Silver at $61.23 is its lowest since December 2025. Three simultaneous headwinds: hawkish Fed raising opportunity cost; tech selloff reducing AI data centre demand optimism; and Iran peace deal deflating the war premium. The industrial demand floor identified at $62-$65 has been breached. Next structural support: $59.50, then $54.25.

Silver: $61.23 — six-month low; $59.50 next stop; $54.25 structural accumulation

Direction: Accumulate $59.50-$61.00; do not buy into ongoing dollar strength at $61.23

Stop Loss: $57.00 — below structural support

Take Profit: $70.73 — prior pivot zone; patience required

EU Gas, National Grid, and Ethereum

EU TTF gas at EUR 42.5 per MWh with EU storage at 45.56% — well below the 54.38% last year — creates a structural gas floor even as Iranian LNG supply normalises. National Grid at 1,226p is caught in the political void: clean energy capex commitments under Starmer are in a holding pattern pending Burnham confirmation. Ethereum at $1,668 is inside the $1,650-$1,750 accumulation band; the Nasdaq spillover is macro, not ETH-specific. PCE Thursday is the gate.

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