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US30 enters the new trading week with buyers still maintaining the broader market structure, while sellers continue searching for opportunities to capitalize on macroeconomic uncertainty. The balance between strong corporate fundamentals and changing interest rate expectations will likely determine the index's next significant move.

US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) Weekly Market Analysis: Buyers Maintain Control as Markets Focus on Economic Data

The past trading week was another active period for the US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average), with investors reacting to economic reports, corporate earnings expectations, and changing views on Federal Reserve policy. The index experienced periods of strong momentum as buyers defended key support levels, although profit-taking and macroeconomic uncertainty created several episodes of heightened volatility.

The week began with cautious optimism as investors assessed fresh U.S. economic data and monitored comments from Federal Reserve officials. Strong performances from several blue-chip companies helped support the Dow, while positive sentiment across the broader equity market encouraged institutional investors to continue accumulating positions. However, concerns over inflation and the possibility of interest rates remaining elevated limited the pace of the rally.

Throughout the week, traders closely watched labor market data, inflation expectations, Treasury yields, and corporate news. Every major economic release influenced market sentiment, producing sharp intraday price swings. Despite these fluctuations, buyers consistently defended important support zones, suggesting that confidence in the broader market remains intact.

From a technical perspective, US30 continues to trade within a generally bullish long-term structure. Although momentum indicators suggest that buying pressure has moderated compared with previous weeks, the index remains above several significant support levels. Price action now appears to be approaching an important technical area where either buyers could extend the uptrend or sellers could trigger a broader corrective move.

Looking ahead to next week, traders should prepare for increased volatility as markets respond...

Currency & Commodity Analysis:

US Dollar Index

The US dollar index remained above 101 on Wednesday, after rising in the previous session, supported by a new round of US airstrikes against Iran, fueled by renewed safe-haven demand following recent attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The latest escalation threatens the interim peace agreement between the US and Iran to end the war, pushing up oil prices, exacerbating inflation concerns, and increasing the prospect of interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, investors await the minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting for further clues about the policy outlook, after the central bank adopted a more hawkish tone at its June policy meeting. The market now prices a roughly 50% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, up from about 46% the previous day. Furthermore, Tuesday's data showed that the US trade deficit widened to $77.6 billion in May, the largest since March 2025.

The US dollar index remains very strong and is likely to remain so for a considerable period. From a debt repayment perspective, the strength of the dollar is influenced by the relationship between GDP growth and the 10-year Treasury yield. If the US can maintain GDP growth and keep the 10-year Treasury yield low, then from a debt repayment perspective, there is no way to short the dollar. The current turning point for the dollar index may be more of a geopolitical or stock market turning point. According to the daily chart, structurally, 101.80 (the high on June 24th) is a strong short-term resistance level; a break below this level would target 102.00 (a psychological level). The 25-day moving average at 100.62 is a key defensive level for the bulls. If this support holds, after a period of consolidation at higher levels, there is...

Currency & Commodity Analysis:

US Dollar Index

The US dollar fell for the second consecutive week as key US inflation data met expectations and lower oil prices slightly cooled market expectations for a Fed rate hike. However, the US dollar index still rose last week, posting its largest monthly gain since July last year. The US dollar index climbed steadily at the beginning of last week, reaching a 13-month high. Although it later saw a slight pullback due to economic data, it still recorded its second consecutive weekly gain and is on track for its largest monthly increase since July of last year. This trend not only reflects the market's strong expectations of a hawkish stance from the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Warsh, but also incorporates multiple factors such as stock market volatility and geopolitical uncertainty, providing solid support for the dollar. Meanwhile, this round of dollar strength overturns the trading logic of several months ago. Previously, the market generally believed that geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East pushing up oil prices would raise inflation expectations, thus benefiting the dollar, forming a "high oil price, strong dollar" logic. However, since mid-May, international oil prices have fallen by about 30%, while the dollar index has risen instead, creating a clear divergence of "falling oil prices, rising dollar."

Overall, the current strength of the dollar is based on the market's firm expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year. This week's non-farm payroll data will be a crucial test of this expectation—strong data will further solidify expectations of an interest rate hike, and the dollar is likely to reach new highs; weak data may trigger a phase of correction in the dollar and open the door for yen intervention. In any case, a storm is brewing. The...

Currency & Commodity Analysis:

US Dollar Index

Last week, the US dollar index showed significant strength, driven by strong May non-farm payroll data, breaking through the Bollinger Band's upper limit (99.99). This morning, it remained above 100, putting downward pressure on major non-US currencies. USD/JPY approached the 160 level, while the euro and pound fell after the data release. Adjustments in market expectations regarding Fed policy were the core driving factor. The market believes that the resilience of the labor market exceeded the revised data, suggesting that the employment diffusion index has rebounded above 50. The Fed's decision-making focus remains on inflation control, and improved employment reduces the urgency for its actions on the employment front. Some opinions point out that although the current threshold for interest rate hikes is high, the possibility of policy adjustments this year still exists, providing fundamental support for the dollar. Strong US economic data combined with external uncertainties have consolidated the dollar's temporary strength. Technically, many currency pairs are approaching the extreme Bollinger Band area, indicating short-term directional pressure, but the overall trend is still dominated by fundamentals. Investors should pay attention to the guiding role of subsequent inflation data and policy signals on exchange rates.

Overall, the short-term foreign exchange market is influenced by both strong US employment data and geopolitical factors, with the US dollar index showing a clear advantage, while major non-US currency pairs are undergoing divergent adjustments. The US dollar index is rising strongly, currently at 100.09, having broken through the Bollinger Bands at 99.99 and above the psychological level of 100.00. After a significant rebound from the year's low of 95.56, it has maintained a high level of fluctuation and is now showing bullish dominance again. The MACD indicator is expanding positively, with the DIFF higher...

The Yen Is the Story

Friday's Asian session opens with a single dominant narrative: the Japanese yen is in crisis, and Tokyo is running out of patience.

USD/JPY crossed 160 per dollar intraday — the threshold that previously triggered $73 billion in official intervention — before verbal warnings from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama pushed it fractionally back to 159.87, up 0.15% on the session. Markets are not convinced. The probe is deliberate. Traders have tested this ceiling before and found it painful. They are testing it again.

What makes today different from previous yen-weakness episodes is the paradox sitting beneath the surface. At the exact moment the yen is depreciating toward intervention levels, BOJ rate-hike expectations are intensifying. Japan's real wages rose for a fourth consecutive month — the domestic demand evidence that BOJ Governor Ueda has repeatedly cited as the precondition for further tightening. Markets now assign a meaningful probability to a BOJ rate hike at the June 16–17 meeting, which would mark the second hike of 2026 and the first time since 2018 that the Fed and BOJ would be tightening simultaneously.

The irony is sharp: a BOJ hike — which would normally strengthen the yen — could theoretically eliminate the very condition that makes intervention necessary. But before that hike arrives, the market has to survive tonight's U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, and that is where every trade in this session ultimately leads.

The Nikkei's AI Rout — SoftBank's Worst Day Since 2020

The Nikkei 225 extended its Thursday decline, falling a further 1.28% to 66,636 in early Tokyo trade. The damage is concentrated but severe. SoftBank Group collapsed 11.3% — its worst single-day loss since 2020 — as its heavy exposure to AI-related investments, including Arm Holdings and OpenAI, became a liability rather than an asset.

The trigger...

Currency & Commodity Analysis:

US Dollar Index

The US dollar index traded around 99.40 on Thursday, near a two-month high, as stronger-than-expected US labor market data reinforced expectations of a tightening Federal Reserve policy. The latest ADP report showed that private sector employment increased by 122,000 in May, exceeding expectations and marking the strongest reading since January 2025. Earlier this week, Jolts data revealed that job openings rose to their highest level since November 2024 in April. Investors are now awaiting Friday's non-farm payroll report for further insight into labor market conditions. The dollar also continues to be supported by escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have kept oil prices high and added to inflationary pressures. The market currently assesses an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed before the end of the year, up from 60% a week ago.

After months of consolidation near multi-month lows, the US dollar index may be entering a broader recovery phase. If inflation remains high and the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt energy markets, the likelihood of the US dollar returning above the 100.00 level in the coming weeks will increase. The US dollar index is currently trading near a high of 99.50, with short-term resistance at the previous high of 99.55. The medium-term resistance is at 100.00 (a psychological level), while support lies at the psychological level of 99.00 and the 99.18 area (the 9-day moving average). The MACD remains above the zero line, with the DIFF above the DEA, indicating a slight continuation of bullish momentum. The RSI is at 58, above the 50 level, indicating bullish dominance but not yet overbought.

Today, consider shorting the US dollar index at 99.52, with a stop-loss at 99.65 and targets at 99.20...