Chips Rebound. Oil Surges for a Third Day. Brent Clears $80. Bonds Are Getting Routed. The RBNZ Just Hiked for the First Time in Three Years

Trump declared the ceasefire MoU “over” and the US struck Iran for a second straight day. Brent is above $80 for the first time since June 22. The 10-year JGB yield is at its highest since September 1996. US Treasuries have added 10 basis points this week. The RBNZ hiked 25bp to 2.50% and signalled more. And Asia’s chipmakers are up 3–7% on a single Nvidia headline. Two completely different markets. Same session.

HIGHEST CONVICTION: USD/JPY is failing to track its own yield support near the 40-year peak. The pair eased 0.2% to 162.42 even as US 10-year yields climbed. Intervention risk and matching JGB yield rises are the explanation. This is a fade, not a chase.

The Oil Story That Is Breaking Bonds

President Trump declared the US-Iran ceasefire memorandum of understanding “over.” The US military launched fresh strikes on Iran for a second consecutive day, this time specifically targeting infrastructure that would help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude cleared $80 per barrel for the first time since June 22, up roughly 9% on the week. WTI trades near $74.40. Trump said later he does not expect a return to full-scale war, which capped the initial panic, but the damage to inflation expectations was already done.

Fed funds futures now imply about 38 basis points of policy tightening this year, back to where pricing sat a week ago. Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes showed that a handful of participants already saw a case for raising rates in June before the committee agreed to hold. The oil-driven repricing is pulling Fed expectations back in a hawkish direction at the worst possible time for bond markets.

The 10-year JGB yield just hit its highest level since September 1996. Australia’s 10-year is at its highest since early June. The US 10-year has added 10 basis points this week. This is a global bond rout driven by one thing: oil.

Chris Weston at Pepperstone framed it precisely: the market still appears skewed toward the view that the conflict ultimately de-escalates and negotiations resume around the MoU, but conviction around timing is exceptionally difficult. That is the right framing. Risk assets are not in full panic mode — Asian equities are actually up — because the market is treating this as a negotiating escalation rather than a genuine return to war. That distinction could prove wrong quickly.

USD/JPY — BUY DIPS  E 161.70  /  SL 161.20  /  TP 162.85

The Chip Rally That Contradicts the Bond Rout

Nikkei 225 up 2.3%. KOSPI up 3.8%. Samsung Electronics up 3.6%. SK Hynix up 7.5%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up more than 2.8% to 24,014.50. This is not a macro risk-on rally. This is a sector-specific relief trade triggered by a single overnight headline: reports that China plans to allow its top AI firms to purchase a limited number of Nvidia H200 chips. Nvidia rose 3.6% on Wall Street. The read-through lifted every Asian memory and AI-infrastructure name that had been sold aggressively over the prior three sessions.

The contradiction with the bond rout is real and acknowledged in the article. The Hang Seng is up 2.8% on a day when the 10-year JGB is at a 1996 high and the global bond selloff is deepening. The explanation is that these are two different trades running simultaneously: the semiconductor names are responding to a specific AI-demand catalyst; the bond market is responding to an energy-inflation catalyst. They can coexist until one overwhelms the other. The risk: a fresh escalation in Iran that pushes oil above $82 to $85 would likely break the equity rally’s logic.

The Hang Seng’s medium-term technical picture remains challenged. The index broke down from its horizontal trend channel and the 24,400 level is the key pivot: failure there gives a negative technical reaction; a break above it is the first genuinely positive signal for the medium-term. Thursday’s rally is taking the index toward that test.

Hang Seng — BUY DIPS  E 23,700  /  SL 23,400  /  TP 24,600

The RBNZ Just Hiked for the First Time in Three Years

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted its Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% overnight — the first hike in three years — and flagged further tightening as likely. The hike itself was priced. What moved the kiwi was Governor Anna Breman’s guidance language: further increases appear likely. Most major New Zealand banks now see the OCR reaching 3.00% by year-end via hikes in September and December, with markets pricing roughly 60% probability of a September follow-up.

Four of six RBNZ committee members described inflation risks as ‘broadly balanced.’ That is a dovish hike. But the guidance said more is likely. Those two things are in tension, and the kiwi chose to price the guidance.

NZD/USD has reclaimed the 0.5700 handle to trade near 0.5724, its firmest level in roughly a week. The pair had dipped overnight on the Iran-driven risk-off move before the RBNZ decision reversed it. The 0.5715 zone, which combines the 100-day EMA on the 4-hour chart with secondary resistance, is the immediate hurdle. The key follow-up catalyst: New Zealand Q2 CPI on July 20, which the RBNZ itself has flagged could print near 4.2%.

NZD/USD — BUY DIPS  E 0.5680  /  SL 0.5640  /  TP 0.5760

USD/JPY at 162.42: When a Pair Refuses to Follow Its Own Yields

USD/JPY has eased around 0.2% to 162.42 on a day when US Treasury yields are climbing. That is unusual. The pair’s failure to capture its own yield support is the session’s most analytically interesting signal. The explanation is the same force the article identifies: Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has repeatedly warned that authorities stand ready to act at any time, and reports that Tokyo may abandon advance intervention signalling — acting without warning to catch speculators off guard — have created a real asymmetry at these levels. Speculators are reluctant to push the pair above 162.84, last week’s 40-year high, because the downside on intervention is 300 to 400 pips in a session.

Japan’s wage data added the other part of the picture: nominal wages up 3.2% in May, but household spending fell 0.4%. A mixed signal that gives the Bank of Japan little urgency to hike, which preserves the structural rate differential. Resistance at 162.85, which is also the 40-year peak. Stop below the 161.20 intervention-fear base.

Copper, Wheat, Dogecoin, BNB: The Rest of the Session

Copper at $6.13 is range-bound and the reason is specific: the US has opened three days of tariff hearings covering 60 countries over forced-labour practices. That introduces fresh uncertainty into global copper trade flows at exactly the moment a clean breakout was setting up. BHP received environmental approval for its Chilean copper expansion — part of a plan to nearly double global output by the mid-2030s — but that is a supply story, not a near-term price catalyst. The metal stays capped below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages at $6.14 and $6.13 respectively. Buy the dip toward $6.05, not the current level.

Wheat at $6.13 is at a one-month high and the supply case is genuine: USDA June 1 stocks at 920 million bushels missed expectations, all-wheat plantings at a record-low 42.74 million acres (the lowest in USDA records dating to 1919), and the Hard Red Winter crop is forecast at its smallest since 1957/58 after Great Plains drought. Private export sales are arriving: 100,000 metric tons to Nigeria, a Saudi tender routed specifically to avoid Hormuz, a Jordanian milling-wheat tender. Friday’s July WASDE publishes the first 2026/27 wheat-by-class projections and is the week’s decisive catalyst for the grain complex.

Dogecoin at $0.071 is pinned near its 52-week low after sliding almost 5% on Wednesday. The structural damage: the stablecoin market contracted $7.7 billion in June, its steepest monthly drop since the 2022 TerraUSD collapse. That is fresh capital leaving the crypto ecosystem, not rotating within it. Bitcoin capped below $64,000 near $62,000 to $62,500 leaves no support for the high-beta memecoin. House of Doge completed its Nasdaq listing as HODO on July 1 and the Paxos payment integration continues, but neither is offsetting the macro pressure. The article’s framework here is bearish: sell rallies toward $0.0770.

BNB at $569.35 carries a real regulatory headwind: the EU’s MiCA stablecoin rules took effect July 1, forcing Binance to restrict services across multiple EU member states. The exchange has withdrawn its Greek MiCA licence application and now plans to apply in France. The ecosystem is doing well — BNB Chain’s tokenized-stock trading volume surpassed $5.2 billion this week, overtaking Solana; the Agent Studio tool launched with AWS — but the stock capped below its 200-day moving average near $590. Sell rallies toward $585.

Copper COMEX — BUY DIPS  E $6.05  /  SL $5.95  /  TP $6.30

Wheat CBOT — BUY DIPS  E $6.00  /  SL $5.90  /  TP $6.35

Dogecoin DOGE — SELL RALLIES  E $0.0770  /  SL $0.0810  /  TP $0.0660

BNB — SELL RALLIES  E $585  /  SL $605  /  TP $530

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